Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#66,226
#66,226
Stew Cook said:
Not saying the concept is bogus, just that assuming it's a sound approach to an end is dubious.

We have NYC and Spain to draw data from. If the data suggests it's a viable concept, that's one thing, but hoping it works out that way doesn't do much, but allow for an indifference to proven measures to slow the spread.

I'm all for allowing volunteers for a large scale proof of concept, but it seems like we might as well just quarantine Florida and watch. In the meantime we have the ability to be responsible, otherwise.
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We don’t have to quarantine anybody.... people can make the personal choice to be around other people or not.
 
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#66,231
#66,231
volfanjustin said:
It's all about keeping Trump from getting re elected. I guarantee you if O'Biden wins in November some libs will come out and say the damages/deaths from the virus was all worth it
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Just the opposite. The US is in a COVID mess all because Trump is trying to get re-elected. He denies that coronavirus is a serious problem. He shames scientists for telling the truth about it. He doesn't wear a mask or want others to wear a mask because he wants to downplay the impact of corona. Trump wanted the US to open up ASAP so the economy could rebound in time for the election. All of Trump's plans have blown up in his face. He's taking down the Republican Party with him.
 
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#66,232
#66,232
Stew Cook said:
That's my point. The assumption itself is reckless. There are countless reasons to slow the spread. Choices have real consequences.
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It is so easy right now to live without going around anyone..... if I believed that way then I wouldn’t have to be around anyone except for an extremely minimal amount of time.
 
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#66,234
#66,234
TennTradition said:
Just measuring antibodies, even if perfectly done, can tell you if you are at herd immunity without knowing fundamental characteristics of the virus. How infectious is someone? How long are they infectious?

This becomes trickier when a portion of the population might already have natural cross-immunity and perhaps antibodies fade but T cells remain trained in such a way that re-infection isn’t a risk.

The fundamental requirement for herd immunity for a isolated population is that the population have a low enough susceptible population (never have been infected and are not naturally immune/vaccinated), that

s * c * t * d < 1

s is the susceptible fraction
c is contacts per day for average person
t is transmission probability per contact
d is the average number of days a person is infectious and contacting others

True herd immunity occurs when the s is reached such that normal behavior (normal c, contact pattern) will not result in an epidemic if the virus is in circulation among the population. But you can appear to reach herd immunity at higher s values if c is still artificially low. Included in this would me quarantined, masks, increased hand washing, temperature screening, etc.

The true R0 of this virus was uncertain because our testing wasn’t in place as it started its natural progression through the population. That’s one reason herd immunity predictions vary. That is further complicated by the fact that some people might have a natural immunity.

I say all that to say you have to know what your target is to even make antibody testing for herd immunity useful. I’m not sure we really know what that is.

As for the question about the antibody lifetime and how you could test for it. First, is someone who loses their antibodies still immune? In most cases I think the answer is yes. So what is providing immunity? T cell response?

It’s possible that antibody tests will overpredict the susceptible population of a lot of people lose their antibodies. But that’s probably the limit of what I can say at this point without venturing into too much conjecture.
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If antibody lifetime is an issue, hypothetically, would testing for antibodies provide useful data to determine % of herd immunity obtained?

I am not sure the antibodies disappear. But if they do we would need to account for that factor.
 
#66,235
#66,235
Stew Cook said:
Yeah, the data has to be there. So it's a matter of observing the antibody longevity, I suppose.
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I guess for that to happen you have to start with people who are sick. Wait for them to test negative. And then start the antibody tests.

Seems like so many of the antibody studies are based on people who were never sick/symptoms. So there is no real way to base a timeline off of that.

Another thing that would be useful, at least for me to know, is how does the Covid antibody longevity last vs other diseases? If its shorter that could be a problem. If its "normal" I would think that's a good thing even if it's not "indefinite". I want to see some comparisons to judge these things on.

Survivors of the spanish flu apparently had the antibodies until they died. But the seasonal flu stuff only lasts for 6 months. Even for the strains it has.
 
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#66,236
#66,236
Stew Cook said:
Not saying the concept is bogus, just that assuming it's a sound approach to an end is dubious.

We have NYC and Spain to draw data from. If the data suggests it's a viable concept, that's one thing, but hoping it works out that way doesn't do much, but allow for an indifference to proven measures to slow the spread.

I'm all for allowing volunteers for a large scale proof of concept, but it seems like we might as well just quarantine Florida and watch. In the meantime we have the ability to be responsible, otherwise.
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Responsible approaches and testing the concept shouldn't be mutually exclusive.
 
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#66,237
#66,237
Purple Tiger said:
Just the opposite. The US is in a COVID mess all because Trump is trying to get re-elected. He denies that coronavirus is a serious problem. He shames scientists for telling the truth about it. He doesn't wear a mask or want others to wear a mask because he wants to downplay the impact of corona. Trump wanted the US to open up ASAP so the economy could rebound in time for the election. All of Trump's plans have blown up in his face. He's taking down the Republican Party with him.
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Fauci even said before to not wear a mask. The numbers are flawed and everyone knows it. The country should be open, should have never closed. You all knew that with a roaring economy there was very little chance O'Biden could beat him so your side had to manufacturer something.
 
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#66,238
#66,238
volfanjustin said:
Fauci even said before to not wear a mask. The numbers are flawed and everyone knows it. The country should be open, should have never closed. You all knew that with a roaring economy there was very little chance O'Biden could beat him so your side had to manufacturer something.
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All scientists changed their minds about masks. Try to keep up. We are exactly where we are because of Trump. Democrats are not in the Oval Office or control the Senate. Those folks are driving the boat.

Did you ever think that this virus may be God's way of getting rid of fat Donnie T for the US? What supreme irony it would be given all the conservative Christians who hug his sack.
 
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#66,239
#66,239
allvol123 said:
I'll help you out and bring in a neutral 3rd party.

He is without a doubt one of the best numbers guys on the board.

@TennTradition can you give just a decent mortality rate estimate on covid? Just roll a number out
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So you don't believe Johns Hopkins? John Hopkins literally uses mortality and fatality interchangeably.

How does mortality differ across countries?
One of the most important ways to measure the burden of COVID-19 is mortality. Countries throughout the world have reported very different case fatality ratios – the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases. Differences in mortality numbers can be caused by:
  • Differences in the number of people tested: With more testing, more people with milder cases are identified. This lowers the case-fatality ratio.
  • Demographics: For example, mortality tends to be higher in older populations.
  • Characteristics of the healthcare system: For example, mortality may rise as hospitals become overwhelmed and have fewer resources.
  • Other factors, many of which remain unknown.
This is literally the first paragraph on the page. Mortality and fatality are used throughout the paragraph.

Excuse me if I prefer to use Johns Hopkins as opposed to a random poster on VN.
 
#66,240
#66,240
PointGuard said:
2% of your family would be how many people? And which ones would you pick to go first?
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Either my brother's pinky toe, or those two weird third cousins that occasionally came to the family reunions that no one knew. Depending on how wide we're casting the net of "family".




PS: You're substituting emoting for reasoning.
 
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#66,241
#66,241
McDad said:
If antibody lifetime is an issue, hypothetically, would testing for antibodies provide useful data to determine % of herd immunity obtained?

I am not sure the antibodies disappear. But if they do we would need to account for that factor.
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If you know the target, then AB tests definitely help determine progress. If ABs disappear then you would need to understand those rates to try to offer a correction to the seroprevalence data.
 
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#66,243
#66,243
TennTradition said:
If you know the target, then AB tests definitely help determine progress. If ABs disappear then you would need to understand those rates to try to offer a correction to the seroprevalence data.
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That's good info, thanks.

What about inferring herd immunity by tracking C19 fatalities in a region or country?
 
#66,248
#66,248
Stew Cook said:
So this Herd Immunity concept redux... basically the dumbasses who refuse to wear masks, and wash their hands after taking a poo, because "Freedumb"... This is their last hope at saving some face and not being forever remembered as reckless morons.

Well, just my objective perspective, anyway.
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Covid is coming to get you Barbara
 
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#66,249
#66,249
McDad said:
@TennTradition
Do you have any insight on whether herd immunity can be tested via antibody tests or other tests?

One may be able to infer appropriate levels of herd immunity have been achieved by simply looking at infections versus fatalities. But that inference wouldnt take into account the virus making it's way through a younger, less vulnerable demographic.

Mick offered antibody testing but stated antibodies don't last long. If true, how could testing for antibodies which are no longer present in someone who had been infected (and immune) give viable data. Mick can't explain.
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Antibodies don't last long? That's still being studied. This from the WP article posted in the previous page:

Several studies are now showing that 20 to 50 percent of people who had never been exposed to the novel coronavirus have immune cells — known as memory T cells — in their body that react to this new virus. The speculation is that this is due to prior exposure to common-cold coronaviruses. We still don’t know why some people fare better than others, or why a few spread the disease to many while others do not spread it at all, but these findings might hold some answers to those questions.
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#66,250
#66,250
Sea Ray said:
Antibodies don't last long? That's still being studied. This from the WP article posted in the previous page:
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An antibody is not the same thing as a helper cell or memory cell.

I don't know how long the C19 antibodies last. No one may know for certain. I took Mick at face value when he offered that information.
 
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