Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#66,176
#66,176
volfanhill said:
Multiple studies suggesting it may be only 15-20% needed. Here’s a study from Oxford

The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2
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Many suspect that this explains what has happened in NY, also. The thinking in the medical community is that (probably a large) subset of the population already has some type of innate immunity, either from prior exposure to similar CVs or to vaccination against a virus that shares similarities (possibly rubella). This also explains how in many families, an infected person does not spread it to all close household contacts, despite them being CV19-naive.

If this trend holds, it would be very promising that we might not have a "second wave" this winter that is feared by many.
 
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#66,178
#66,178
kiddiedoc said:
Many suspect that this explains what has happened in NY, also. The thinking in the medical community is that (probably a large) subset of the population already has some type of innate immunity, either from prior exposure to similar CVs or to vaccination against a virus that shares similarities (possible rubella). This also explains how in many families, an infected person does not spread it to all close household contacts, despite them being CV19-naive.

If this trend holds, it would be very promising that we might not have a "second wave" this winter that is feared by many.
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Thank you for that. I have been scratching my head trying to figure out how if one person in the house have multiple Dont. I have several employees test positive but their spouses and children haven’t. Good info as always Doc.
 
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#66,179
#66,179
volfanhill said:
Thank you for that. I have been scratching my head trying to figure out how if one person in the house have multiple Dont. I have several employees test positive but their spouses and children haven’t. Good info as always Doc.
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A close friend of mine's sister tested positive after a girls' trip to Key West around three weeks ago. She had minimal/no symptoms. She stayed home with her entire family throughout, no isolation, and neither husband nor kids fell ill.

This also likely explains how infrequent symptomatic infection is in children.
 
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#66,180
#66,180
Mick said:
Measuring antibodies is what needs to be measured when trying to quantify herd immunity. Actually we won't know the threshold until it's achieved. I really don't know why you need help. Number of deaths is meaningless until it reaches 0 for an extended period of time. And only then can you "infer" herd immunity is achieved.
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I need help because you stated antibodies don't last long. How do you measure something fleeting and use it to quantify the appropriate percentage is reached?
 
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#66,182
#66,182
I keep hearing these questions about declining antibody titers. There is another (perhaps more important) factor in immunity known as "memory," by which T and B cells are primed to respond quickly and efficiently in the case of exposure to a recognized antigen.

T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity

SARS-CoV-2 T cell immunity: Specificity, function, durability, and role in protection

SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls
 
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#66,185
#66,185
I was watching this video and a thought came to me....


“Lousy f’ing virus.... look at all those people crammed in that stadium having a good time.”
 
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#66,186
#66,186
0nelilreb said:
I’ve been calling for it since before this all started in a post with Velo I believe . The CDC is a joke that needs to be defunded and restructured ( not given more power ) .
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Awww, it's time for people to start trying to cover their large incorrect bottoms. How cute.
 
#66,188
#66,188
McDad said:
I need help because you stated antibodies don't last long. How do you measure something fleeting and use it to quantify the appropriate percentage is reached?
Click to expand...

Well, in order to even get to the point where we can discuss herd immunity, we have to determine if the antibodies last. That's the first thing. Do you agree? Some people want to jump past that all together and claim herd immunity without any data except the decrease in deaths. Apparently you do need help since you seem to be in that boat. I'm not trying to quantify the appropriate percentage to be reached for an unknown theoretical threshold, just stating that the number of deaths relative to the number of cases isn't a good measure of "herd immunity". I've already listed some of the unknown variable that would contribute to the death rate and there is no correlation between death rate and herd immunity.

Seriously tell me what you think is the best measure of herd immunity since you seem to be having a terrible time accepting what the scientific community uses?
 
#66,189
#66,189
kiddiedoc said:
Many suspect that this explains what has happened in NY, also. The thinking in the medical community is that (probably a large) subset of the population already has some type of innate immunity, either from prior exposure to similar CVs or to vaccination against a virus that shares similarities (possibly rubella). This also explains how in many families, an infected person does not spread it to all close household contacts, despite them being CV19-naive.

If this trend holds, it would be very promising that we might not have a "second wave" this winter that is feared by many.
Click to expand...

Links? Also, your theory is based upon the presumption that prior CV19 infection provides short- and longer-term immunity. Preliminary studies indicate this may not be the case.
 
#66,190
#66,190
kiddiedoc said:
I keep hearing these questions about declining antibody titers. There is another (perhaps more important) factor in immunity known as "memory," by which T and B cells are primed to respond quickly and efficiently in the case of exposure to a recognized antigen.

T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity

SARS-CoV-2 T cell immunity: Specificity, function, durability, and role in protection

SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls
Click to expand...
The results suggest “one reason that a large chunk of the population may be able to deal with the virus is that we may have some small residual immunity from our exposure to common cold viruses,” says viral immunologist Steven Varga of the University of Iowa. However, neither of the studies attempted to establish that people with crossreactivity don’t become as ill from COVID-19.
Before these studies, researchers didn’t know whether T cells played a role in eliminating SARS-CoV-2, or even whether they could provoke a dangerous immune system overreaction. “These papers are really helpful because they start to define the T cell component of the immune response,” Rasmussen says. But she and other scientists caution that the results do not mean that people who have recovered from COVID-19 are protected from reinfection.
 
#66,191
#66,191
Good buddy and his wife got the rona in Arizona. He said one week of runny nose, that was it, stayed home, worked, worked out, swam, nothing other than runny nose. Wife, was sleepier than normal, no other affects.

Both are early 40's, healthy, active people. They knew few other's who caught it, those who are unhealthy are getting it much worse.
 
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#66,193
#66,193
Mick said:
Well, in order to even get to the point where we can discuss herd immunity, we have to determine if the antibodies last. That's the first thing. Do you agree? Some people want to jump past that all together and claim herd immunity without any data except the decrease in deaths. Apparently you do need help since you seem to be in that boat. I'm not trying to quantify the appropriate percentage to be reached for an unknown theoretical threshold, just stating that the number of deaths relative to the number of cases isn't a good measure of "herd immunity". I've already listed some of the unknown variable that would contribute to the death rate and there is no correlation between death rate and herd immunity.

Seriously tell me what you think is the best measure of herd immunity since you seem to be having a terrible time accepting what the scientific community uses?
Click to expand...
Your replies are getting longer and you're communicating less.

Let's review how we got here, shall we?
• I ask how you would quantify herd immunity.
• You reference antibody testing AFTER stating antibodies dont last long (in the same post).
• Confused, I ask you to help me understand.
• You are unable in 3 attempts to help me understand how antibody testing provides quantifiable data since the antibodies disappear after a short time.

I'll ask the number cruncher. Because at this point, I don't think you know what you're talking about.

If anyone can explain Mick's position to me, I am genuinely curious and would appreciate it.
 
#66,194
#66,194
McDad said:
Your replies are getting longer and you're communicating less.

Let's review how we got here, shall we?
• I ask how you would quantify herd immunity.
• You reference antibody testing AFTER stating antibodies dont last long (in the same post).
• Confused, I ask you to help me understand.
• You are unable in 3 attempts to help me understand how antibody testing provides quantifiable data since the antibodies disappear after a short time.

I'll ask the number cruncher. Because at this point, I don't think you know what you're talking about.

If anyone can explain Mick's position to me, I am genuinely curious and would appreciate it.
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You seem to be sitting on the sideline throwing rocks without taking a position of your own. You have failed as answering any of my questions but yea someone help McDad figure this out. Someone help McDad figure out why the number of deaths isn't a good indicator of herd immunity. Someone help McDad understand the importance of antibodies at preventing reinfection. Someone help McDad understand how preventing reinfection is key to herd immunity.
 
#66,198
#66,198
@TennTradition
Do you have any insight on whether herd immunity can be tested via antibody tests or other tests?

One may be able to infer appropriate levels of herd immunity have been achieved by simply looking at infections versus fatalities. But that inference wouldnt take into account the virus making it's way through a younger, less vulnerable demographic.

Mick offered antibody testing but stated antibodies don't last long. If true, how could testing for antibodies which are no longer present in someone who had been infected (and immune) give viable data. Mick can't explain.
 
#66,200
#66,200
McDad said:
@TennTradition
Do you have any insight on whether herd immunity can be tested via antibody tests or other tests?

One may be able to infer appropriate levels of herd immunity have been achieved by simply looking at infections versus fatalities. But that inference wouldnt take into account the virus making it's way through a younger, less vulnerable demographic.

Mick offered antibody testing but stated antibodies don't last long. If true, how could testing for antibodies which are no longer present in someone who had been infected (and immune) give viable data. Mick can't explain.
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If a person doesn't have the antibodies they are not immune. Hard concept I know.
 
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