Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[DancingOutlaw]

Can you read a graph?

View attachment 294287

They’re not reporting any more deaths because everyone is already dead.

 

[volfanhill]

I've not seen those unrealistic low ball numbers. Everything I've read says 60-70%.

Well it’s a virus and info changes. This isn’t some nonsense group coming up with this. They are also behind one of the leading vaccine research companies. So they would be financially not thrilled about this

 

[McDad]

Well it’s a virus and info changes. This isn’t some nonsense group coming up with this. They are also behind one of the leading vaccine research companies. So they would be financially not thrilled about this

Any credible information detailing the percent of herd we're at currently in the US?

 

[Mick]

Well it’s a virus and info changes. This isn’t some nonsense group coming up with this. They are also behind one of the leading vaccine research companies. So they would be financially not thrilled about this

It's a theoretical threshold and it would thrill me to death if it was 10-20%.

 

[VolnJC]

92% negative rate today.. hospitalized down for 3rd day in a row

 

[volfanhill]

Any credible information detailing the percent of herd we're at currently in the US?

Here is New York’s which fits, potentially, why they are doing well right now.

NY releases figures estimating 14 percent in state, 20 percent in NYC have had COVID-19

 

[volfanhill]

It's a theoretical threshold and it would thrill me to death if it was 10-20%.

Me too. I am not saying I believe it to be so. Like you, I had always read the HIT number had to be 70%, but these studies are encouraging.

 

[VolnJC]

I understand different percentages are needed with different pathogens to achieve herd immunity.

If the antibodies don't last long, how are antibody positives per 100 people helpful? You lost me there.

Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?

 

[PointGuard]

Deadlines. Boss on vacation leaving me to do her job. Me handling two of our firm's biggest projects by myself, but it's ok one guy is handling one big project by himself. While three people handle one project half the size and complexity of mine.

Trump is the whiny little bitch?

 

[UT_VOLS13]

Kentucky couple fit with ankle monitors, placed on house arrest for refusing to sign quarantine documents

 

[McDad]

Here is New York’s which fits, potentially, why they are doing well right now.

NY releases figures estimating 14 percent in state, 20 percent in NYC have had COVID-19

That's very encouraging.

I wonder how long it will take to reach similar percentages in rural areas like ours?

 

[Volsfaninva917]

92% negative rate today.. hospitalized down for 3rd day in a row

Um excuse me, thats not doom and gloom. Shame on you

 

[McDad]

It's a theoretical threshold and it would thrill me to death if it was 10-20%.

If the antibodies don't last long, how are antibody positives per 100 people helpful? You lost me there.

Mick, help me out here.

 

[Mick]

Mick, help me out here.

Measuring antibodies is what needs to be measured when trying to quantify herd immunity. Actually we won't know the threshold until it's achieved. I really don't know why you need help. Number of deaths is meaningless until it reaches 0 for an extended period of time. And only then can you "infer" herd immunity is achieved.

 

[allvol123]

Measuring antibodies is what needs to be measured when trying to quantify herd immunity. Actually we won't know the threshold until it's achieved. I really don't know why you need help. Number of deaths is meaningless until it reaches 0 for an extended period of time. And only then can you "infer" herd immunity is achieved.

What are UK, Italy, France, Spain experiencing now?

 

[Mick]

What are UK, Italy, France, Spain experiencing now?

No Americans?

 

[allvol123]

No Americans?

Lame answer.

Why do you believe their deaths have dwindled. Seems pretty obvious.

 

[Mick]

Lame answer.

Why do you believe there deaths have dwindled. Seems pretty obvious.

That was a funny answer
Do you mean their "draconian" stay at home orders? Maybe their mask mandates? Maybe their contact tracing? Better testing?

 

[allvol123]

That was a funny answer
Do you mean their "draconian" stay at home orders? Maybe their mask mandates? Maybe their contact tracing? Better testing?

Utter BS.

People are people. Unless you live under authoritarian regimes like China, people are going to skirt the rules.

The british tabloids very late in their outbreak were admonishing the beachgoers and such.

But proceed with your America bad. Americans dumb nonsense.

 

[DC_Vol]

I’m going to post a few graphs here for context. I don’t have a crystal ball but you can make a pretty good prediction on what is about to happen here.

First graph - cases by week in US (with 5 day rolling highlighted), source JHU

Second graph - deaths by week in US (7 day rolling), source Statista

All the fear porn is around the data in the first graph. What is the really important measurement is what is on the second.

 

[volfanhill]

That was a funny answer
Do you mean their "draconian" stay at home orders? Maybe their mask mandates? Maybe their contact tracing? Better testing?

Well if they have achieved the HIT for herd then those measures actually slowed them down from getting there. It would also explain why you are seeing large flare ups in countries who “handled” it better during the first round. Those countries never had the infection rates of the ones who are noted in the study.

 

[Mick]

Well if they have achieved the HIT for herd then those measures actually slowed them down from getting there. It would also explain why you are seeing large flare ups in countries who “handled” it better during the first round. Those countries never had the infection rates of the ones who are noted in the study.

I'm not sure which study you're referencing. I don't see why the push to claim herd immunity for country x. Do you honestly think any country has herd immunity?

 

[headhunter15]

I’m going to post a few graphs here for context. I don’t have a crystal ball but you can make a pretty good prediction on what is about to happen here.

First graph - cases by week in US (with 5 day rolling highlighted), source JHU

Second graph - deaths by week in US (7 day rolling), source Statista

All the fear porn is around the data in the first graph. What is the really important measurement is what is on the second.


View attachment 294323
View attachment 294324

Please don’t bring anything close to the truth, logic or hope to this thread. It’s discouraged.

 

[volfanhill]

I'm not sure which study you're referencing. I don't see why the push to claim herd immunity for country x. Do you honestly think any country has herd immunity?

The study I noted earlier. And I don’t know if anyone has. But the countries that hit over 15% infection rates haven’t seen flare ups. Where as many others, who handled this “very well”, are having a resurgence. If we don’t see upticks in NY as it opens up more and more then we will have our answer.

 

[Mick]

The study I noted earlier. And I don’t know if anyone has. But the countries that hit over 15% infection rates haven’t seen flare ups. Where as many others, who handled this “very well”, are having a resurgence. If we don’t see upticks in NY as it opens up more and more then we will have our answer.

I don't think lack of uptick would constitute herd immunity but I don't think that is what your talking about. The more people that have the antibodies the better it is to reduce the spread, no doubt.