DancingOutlaw
No sloppy, slimy eggs plz
- Joined
- Aug 11, 2010
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Here is New York’s which fits, potentially, why they are doing well right now.Any credible information detailing the percent of herd we're at currently in the US?
Coronavirus: could it be burning out after 20% of a population is infected?I understand different percentages are needed with different pathogens to achieve herd immunity.
If the antibodies don't last long, how are antibody positives per 100 people helpful? You lost me there.
That's very encouraging.Here is New York’s which fits, potentially, why they are doing well right now.
NY releases figures estimating 14 percent in state, 20 percent in NYC have had COVID-19
Measuring antibodies is what needs to be measured when trying to quantify herd immunity. Actually we won't know the threshold until it's achieved. I really don't know why you need help. Number of deaths is meaningless until it reaches 0 for an extended period of time. And only then can you "infer" herd immunity is achieved.Mick, help me out here.
Measuring antibodies is what needs to be measured when trying to quantify herd immunity. Actually we won't know the threshold until it's achieved. I really don't know why you need help. Number of deaths is meaningless until it reaches 0 for an extended period of time. And only then can you "infer" herd immunity is achieved.
That was a funny answer
Do you mean their "draconian" stay at home orders? Maybe their mask mandates? Maybe their contact tracing? Better testing?
Well if they have achieved the HIT for herd then those measures actually slowed them down from getting there. It would also explain why you are seeing large flare ups in countries who “handled” it better during the first round. Those countries never had the infection rates of the ones who are noted in the study.That was a funny answer
Do you mean their "draconian" stay at home orders? Maybe their mask mandates? Maybe their contact tracing? Better testing?
I'm not sure which study you're referencing. I don't see why the push to claim herd immunity for country x. Do you honestly think any country has herd immunity?Well if they have achieved the HIT for herd then those measures actually slowed them down from getting there. It would also explain why you are seeing large flare ups in countries who “handled” it better during the first round. Those countries never had the infection rates of the ones who are noted in the study.
I’m going to post a few graphs here for context. I don’t have a crystal ball but you can make a pretty good prediction on what is about to happen here.
First graph - cases by week in US (with 5 day rolling highlighted), source JHU
Second graph - deaths by week in US (7 day rolling), source Statista
All the fear porn is around the data in the first graph. What is the really important measurement is what is on the second.
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The study I noted earlier. And I don’t know if anyone has. But the countries that hit over 15% infection rates haven’t seen flare ups. Where as many others, who handled this “very well”, are having a resurgence. If we don’t see upticks in NY as it opens up more and more then we will have our answer.I'm not sure which study you're referencing. I don't see why the push to claim herd immunity for country x. Do you honestly think any country has herd immunity?
I don't think lack of uptick would constitute herd immunity but I don't think that is what your talking about. The more people that have the antibodies the better it is to reduce the spread, no doubt.The study I noted earlier. And I don’t know if anyone has. But the countries that hit over 15% infection rates haven’t seen flare ups. Where as many others, who handled this “very well”, are having a resurgence. If we don’t see upticks in NY as it opens up more and more then we will have our answer.