2020 Presidential Race

#33,727
#33,727
LouderVol said:
States are dependent on the fed for voting money?
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Trump doesn't like mail-in voting because it increases the overall voter turnout, which theoretically, helps Democrats. However, there is no empirical evidence that the actual number of ballots cast by mail, favors one party over the other. It simply increases (by varying degree from state to state) the volume of votes cast. Trump would have more credibility on this issue if he didn't vote by mail himself. Nobody takes these threats seriously, of course. This is just Trump being the hypocritical, petty, whining, gas bag that he is.
 
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#33,728
#33,728
BowlBrother85 said:
Trump doesn't like mail-in voting because it increases the overall voter turnout, which theoretically, helps Democrats. However, there is no empirical evidence that the actual number of ballots cast by mail, favors one party over the other. It simply increases (by varying degree from state to state) the volume of votes cast. Trump would have more credibility on this issue if he didn't vote by mail himself. Nobody takes these threats seriously, of course. This is just Trump being the hypocritical, petty, whining, gas bag that he is.
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Stop attributing motives. he says that he's against it due to his distrust of the dems, and the increased danger of voter fraud. Considering the Dems defrauded the FISA court to spy on his last campaign, I think we an take him at his word that he doesn't trust Dems in an election.
 
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#33,729
#33,729
BigOrangeD said:
Leftist inconsistencies are adding way up.
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Reporter is in front of a large building fully engulfed in flames and says it’s peaceful protest.

Leftists protests are always portrayed as “mostly peaceful” regardless of what kind of violence occurs.

The media continues to sink lower. They haber hit rock bottom yet.
 
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#33,730
#33,730
DC_Vol said:
Reporter is in front of a large building fully engulfed in flames and says it’s peaceful protest.

Leftists protests are always portrayed as “mostly peaceful” regardless of what kind of violence occurs.

The media continues to sink lower. They haber hit rock bottom yet.
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Trumps anti Democrat/Biden ads are going to be BRUTAL.
 
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#33,731
#33,731
Orange_Crush said:
Stop attributing motives. he says that he's against it due to his distrust of the dems, and the increased danger of voter fraud. Considering the Dems defrauded the FISA court to spy on his last campaign, I think we an take him at his word that he doesn't trust Dems in an election.
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BowlBrother85 said:
Trump doesn't like mail-in voting because it increases the overall voter turnout, which theoretically, helps Democrats. However, there is no empirical evidence that the actual number of ballots cast by mail, favors one party over the other. It simply increases (by varying degree from state to state) the volume of votes cast. Trump would have more credibility on this issue if he didn't vote by mail himself. Nobody takes these threats seriously, of course. This is just Trump being the hypocritical, petty, whining, gas bag that he is.
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The data on this basically says that it reinforces the predominant opinions of w.e area you're in. So it kind of works like gerrymandering. But of you're in an election which you're expecting losses as the Republicans are, it should theoretically help some stay in power. I find it fascinating that someone who didnt condemn Russia meddling in our election would be worried about voter fraud but that's where we are
 
#33,732
#33,732
lacrossepro70 said:
The data on this basically says that it reinforces the predominant opinions of w.e area you're in. So it kind of works like gerrymandering. But of you're in an election which you're expecting losses as the Republicans are, it should theoretically help some stay in power. I find it fascinating that someone who didnt condemn Russia meddling in our election would be worried about voter fraud but that's where we are
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He did condemn Russian meddling. He railed against Hillary's Steele Dossier every day for three years.
 
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#33,733
#33,733
BowlBrother85 said:
I know you guys don't like polls (or at least, you don't like them when they reflect something poorly on a Republican Party candidate. They have a way of being posted here, whenever they reflect something positive.), but the current polls on realclearpolitics.com are a horror show for Trump.

President Donald Trump Job Approval Ratings taken from 5/25 - 6/9:

Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average .... (42.2% Approve - 54.9% Disapprove)

YouGov .... 6/7 - 6/9 .... (43% Approve - 56% Disapprove)
Rasmussen Reports .... 6/7 - 6/9 .... (44% Approve - 55% Disapprove)
Politico .... 6/6 - 6/7 .... (39% Approve - 58% Disapprove)
CNN .... 6/2 - 6/5 .... (40% Approve - 57% Disapprove)
The Hill .... 6/1 - 6/4 .... (44% Approve - 56% Disapprove)
NPR/PBS .... 6/2 - 6/3 .... (42% Approve - 55% Disapprove)
Emerson .... 6/2 - 6/3 .... (43% Approve - 50% Disapprove)
IBD/TIPP .... 5/31 - 6/3 .... (42% Approve - 53% Disapprove)
Gallup .... 5/28 - 6/4 .... (39% Approve - 57% Disapprove)
Reuters .... 6/1 - 6/2 .... (40% Approve - 57% Disapprove)
CBS News .... 5/29 - 6/2 .... (40% Approve - 54% Disapprove)
NBC/WSJ .... 5/28 - 6/2 .... (45% Approve - 53% Disapprove)
Monmouth .... 5/28 - 6/1 .... (43% Approve - 54% Disapprove)
CNBC .... 5/29 - 5/31 .... (44% Approve - 56% Disapprove)
ABC/WP .... 5/25 - 5/28 .... (45% Approve - 53% Disapprove)

This is a large sample size of 15 polls, and it includes polls such as Rasmussen Reports and The Hill/HarrisX which are known to lean to the right. They all show the same thing. Trump's numbers are tanking. I would take note of where Gallup and Politico currently have him - below 40%. There is no way Trump wins re-election with numbers like this. He still has almost 5 months... but it's not looking good at the moment.
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Zogby has Trump and Biden even. Trump approval at 48%.

Zogby Analytics | Political Polls | President Trump Surveys

Having posted that I do think Trump has work to do. I think if the election were today he'd lose pretty badly. But we're a long way from Election Day particularly in this environment. He's going to have to do more than just be Trump to win. He needs lots of debates (at least 3) and he needs to be the law and order candidate, something this country badly needs.
 
#33,734
#33,734
BowlBrother85 said:
Trump doesn't like mail-in voting because it increases the overall voter turnout, which theoretically, helps Democrats. However, there is no empirical evidence that the actual number of ballots cast by mail, favors one party over the other. It simply increases (by varying degree from state to state) the volume of votes cast. Trump would have more credibility on this issue if he didn't vote by mail himself. Nobody takes these threats seriously, of course. This is just Trump being the hypocritical, petty, whining, gas bag that he is.
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So defunding the states would not effect their voting? Does he pay, or not, by the vote?
 
#33,735
#33,735
Orange_Crush said:
He did condemn Russian meddling. He railed against Hillary's Steele Dossier every day for three years.
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dbd.jpg
 
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#33,736
#33,736
Orange_Crush said:
Stop attributing motives. he says that he's against it due to his distrust of the dems, and the increased danger of voter fraud. Considering the Dems defrauded the FISA court to spy on his last campaign, I think we an take him at his word that he doesn't trust Dems in an election.
Click to expand...
Trump is also not above lying in order to make his case. In May, Trump claimed that Michigan and Nevada were engaged in voter fraud and had acted illegally, and he threatened to withhold federal funds to those states if they proceed in expanding vote-by-mail efforts. However, Trump inaccurately accused the Michigan Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, of sending mail ballots to residents. As his aides later acknowledged, Jocelyn Benson had sent ballot applications - not the ballots themselves - to registered voters, which is a growing practice among elected officials in states with Republican Party leadership as well as Democratic Party leadership. Trump never apologized for this false accusation against Jocelyn Benson. Who is the person here with integrity issues? It's Trump.

Trump is hardly ever specific in his claims of voter fraud, and the reason why is simple: Whenever he makes specific allegations which can be fact-checked, rather than just blanket accusations, he is always proven wrong.
 
#33,738
#33,738
Sea Ray said:
Zogby has Trump and Biden even. Trump approval at 48%.

Zogby Analytics | Political Polls | President Trump Surveys

Having posted that I do think Trump has work to do. I think if the election were today he'd lose pretty badly. But we're a long way from Election Day particularly in this environment. He's going to have to do more than just be Trump to win. He needs lots of debates (at least 3) and he needs to be the law and order candidate, something this country badly needs.
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There are some good reasons why Real Clear Politics does not use Zogby Analytics among their survey of polling data, and these are a few of them:

Per hillreporter.com from August 28, 2019:

"Zogby is not really seen as a legitimate poll by those who study such measures in general. One of the main reasons for that is that the company doesn't release to the public its own methods on how it conducted their polling for many of its releases. Transparency is a big deal for most polls, and even the Trump-friendly Rasmussen let's people see how they conduct themselves.

Zogby, not so much.

'Any poll where they don't provide detailed methodological information should actually be ignored,' Rutgers political science professor David Redlawsk once quipped about the company, The Independent reported.

Another reason people-in-the-know about polls don't trust Zogby is that it has historically gotten it wrong many times over. In 2009, pollster Nate Silver, who runs FiveThirtyEight.com, wrote a scathing piece against the polling outfit, which reported Barack Obama with a 50 percent approval rating in March of 2009, when his average polling numbers were close to 10 points higher than that. (Zogby also got wrong the California primary in 2008, predicting that Obama would beat Hillary Clinton by 13 points, when he lost to her by 9 points).

Within the title of his screed against Zogby, Silver called it "the worst poll in the world" for its misuse of data and the unscientific ways the company polled respondents itself."

I follow a lot of polling data, and the only people who ever cite Zogby are doing so because they can't find positive data for their candidate of choice anywhere else. They are propaganda, not pollsters.
 
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#33,739
#33,739
Sea Ray said:
Zogby has Trump and Biden even. Trump approval at 48%.

Zogby Analytics | Political Polls | President Trump Surveys

Having posted that I do think Trump has work to do. I think if the election were today he'd lose pretty badly. But we're a long way from Election Day particularly in this environment. He's going to have to do more than just be Trump to win. He needs lots of debates (at least 3) and he needs to be the law and order candidate, something this country badly needs.
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Given how crazy 2020 has been, I think it is way too far out to put much stock in election polls right now. We still have the Yellowstone eruptions and giant meteor to get through before November.
 
#33,743
#33,743
BowlBrother85 said:
Trump is also not above lying in order to make his case. In May, Trump claimed that Michigan and Nevada were engaged in voter fraud and had acted illegally, and he threatened to withhold federal funds to those states if they proceed in expanding vote-by-mail efforts. However, Trump inaccurately accused the Michigan Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, of sending mail ballots to residents. As his aides later acknowledged, Jocelyn Benson had sent ballot applications - not the ballots themselves - to registered voters, which is a growing practice among elected officials in states with Republican Party leadership as well as Democratic Party leadership. Trump never apologized for this false accusation against Jocelyn Benson. Who is the person here with integrity issues? It's Trump.

Trump is hardly ever specific in his claims of voter fraud, and the reason why is simple: Whenever he makes specific allegations which can be fact-checked, rather than just blanket accusations, he is always proven wrong.
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I have no reservations that Trump will lie. There's just no reason to demand that he is in this case. As you're aware, a case based solely on attributed motives is pretty weak. I'm sick and tired of the hyper-partisan bull____ where if the other side says the sky is blue, you call it red because the other side said it.

There is no reason to demand that Trump has to be lying about why he is against mail in voting.
 
#33,746
#33,746
LouderVol said:
I wish this was a joke.
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FWIW looks like we dodged the sketchiest asteroid on 6/8 this year. Unless there's one I'm not aware of. Also USGS is saying Yellowstone is green/normal rn despite all the earthquakes. I guess they're pretty frequent there.

Ya'll had me trippin there for a second lol
 
#33,747
#33,747
Orange_Crush said:
I have no reservations that Trump will lie. There's just no reason to demand that he is in this case. As you're aware, a case based solely on attributed motives is pretty weak. I'm sick and tired of the hyper-partisan bull____ where if the other side says the sky is blue, you call it red because the other side said it.

There is no reason to demand that Trump has to be lying about why he is against mail in voting.
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But the fact that he votes by mail himself really does cast his motives in a skeptical light. As with a lot of things involving Donald Trump, it's an inconsistency that he pays no attention to.
 
#33,748
#33,748
lacrossepro70 said:
FWIW looks like we dodged the sketchiest asteroid on 6/8 this year. Unless there's one I'm not aware of. Also USGS is saying Yellowstone is green/normal rn despite all the earthquakes. I guess they're pretty frequent there.

Ya'll had me trippin there for a second lol
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You just had to go an jinx us.
 
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#33,749
#33,749
BowlBrother85 said:
But the fact that he votes by mail himself really does cast his motives in a skeptical light. As with a lot of things involving Donald Trump, it's an inconsistency that he pays no attention to.
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Perhaps. It's definitely a bad light. But I don't see how it speaks to his motives, or demands that he's lying about why he's against it. That is, unless you're arguing that he doesn't trust himself to vote by mail?
 
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