Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[TennTradition]

I would think the widespread antibody results would say it has been here for a while.

And I forget the numbers we had previously discussed but the peak deaths was only a little outside of normal +15k vs 200k. So it seems very plausible that we didnt even notice the deaths because they weren't that far our of normal.

I think the other implication here is that Wuhan may not be the source. Or at least not as tied to the Lunar New Year celebrations as we thought.

It was happening before their Lunar New Year celebrations. Wuhan was entering lock down at that time - and with how aggressively they pursued that lockdown, you know the death situation was obvious and compelling. We were nowhere near that kind of obvious and compelling death situation until April.

The numbers of excess deaths per month (that's what the 200k number is, monthly deaths) is much higher than +15k. April will come closer to 60k. We reached +20k for a single week in early April (over 3,000 deaths / day above normal).

The issue is - what does "here longer than we realize" actually mean? To some - that will be confirmation that the respiratory infection they had in November was CV. However, everyone literally has 2-3 people in their extended family that fall into the bucket. Yet - do those same people have anyone in their extended family that have been CV+ in testing in the more recent outbreak? Probably not. So, for all those illnesses back last year to have been CV we would have seen it in excess deaths, IMO.

Also, we know how fast this moved through NY by watching excess deaths - which is a strong signal. I do not think you can have rooted, established community spread in a region and just reach 6% antibody levels after 4-6 months. The virus just doesn't work that way. Could the virus have appeared there 5 months ago? Sure. Could it have been so established that we all know multiple people that had it at that time? My answer to that is no.

I'm not an expert, but I've researched a lot, analyzed a lot of data, etc. With everything I think I know, I can't make that argument work. But all along I've resisted saying that "there is no way it was in the US in Dec.". That just seems silly. Big difference between a case here, and a case there but never rooting in and establishing widespread community transmission (which is what we saw from mid-to-late Feb through today).

 

[TennTradition]

You're looking at the wrong data. Look at flu, cancer and heart attack deaths for example. You will easily find your answer there.

Tell me more about the data I'm looking at.

This is calculated from CDC "All Deaths"

 

[TennTradition]

Listening to Susan Collins speak is like reading a post by @TennTradition

I post with spasmodic dysphonia?

 

[vols40]

I post with spasmodic dysphonia?

No offense intended. Just observational.

 

[k-town_king]

Chy-na isn’t a race .

And the Confederates were traitors and a losers. Water is wet.

Anymore common sense facts you want to post?


But ok if you want to be pedantic, it was an ethnocentric comment at the least.

 

[TennTradition]

How are you getting excess deaths? Using the CDC data, if I sum the expected deaths and total deaths, we actually have less: 847k vs 806k.

Understanding there's a lag, cutting it off at 4/24, it's 687k vs 715k, which is 28k extra deaths. There's a lot of numbers bouncing around in the news, all higher than the CDC provisional counts.

Note, I'm not really saying anything substantial here, just that I'm waiting for these updated CDC provisional counts.

Yes - good point. I didn't go into detail in how I created this plot. This is taking the standard expected projection (min/max establishing the "uncertainty" range that I show in the color bands) for how the CDC data comes in week/week and growing from there. Where this method will fail is if there is a big change in the rate that CDC receives the death certificates.

 

[vols40]

And the Confederates were traitors and a losers. Water is wet.

Anymore common sense facts you want to post?


But ok if you want to be pedantic, it was an ethnocentric comment at the least.

You are an ethnocentric tool

 

[0nelilreb]

And the Confederates were traitors and a losers. Water is wet.

Anymore common sense facts you want to post?


But ok if you want to be pedantic, it was an ethnocentric comment at the least.

What I’m being is factual . What you and many on the left aren’t bothering to be . You’ve overused the word so much you don’t have a clue what it actually is anymore except for a catch all to call someone that offends you . Your PC day in the sun is over .

 

[k-town_king]

She was the one who asked why he would ask "her" (an Asian) that question. F that pos

Yes why would he tell her, an American, to ask China?
Hint, its because she is Asian. That is racist.

I guess the same reason he told the black reporter to ask the CBC a question about something that had nothing to do with them. or when he asked the Jews to ask Netanhayu a question.

Nah, nothing to it.

FU you racist. The reporter is not the first person that President Trump has told that if they want answers they can ask China. Are you suggesting that the virus did not come from China with the WHO and China lying about human to human transmission? F.. this intellectual lightweight reporter. She can fix Daddy and steak.... Medium rare

It doesn't matter where it came from. It has a name. Using a name affixed to something to do with an ethnic or racial stereotype is racist.

fix daddy and steak? Are you having a stroke?

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Tell me more about the data I'm looking at.

This is calculated from CDC "All Deaths"

I don't care where it's calculated from. The other diseases and deaths hardly exist. Over-inflating!!!


It’s common sense and now known the virus was here as early as December. Why didn’t we see these massive numbers of deaths then? Why didn’t it ramp up to the levels we are at now immediately upon introduction to the community when we weren’t social distancing?


I also know someone, in Knoxville, that their Father recently died of cancer. He outlived his time they give him to live by 6 months. On hospice, in his house, and died during the normal hospice routine. They got the death certificate and it was listed as Covid.


+ $13,000 from Medicare with that one word.

 

[vols40]

Yes why would he tell her, an American, to ask China?
Hint, its because she is Asian. That is racist.

I guess the same reason he told the black reporter to ask the CBC a question about something that had nothing to do with them. or when he asked the Jews to ask Netanhayu a question.

Nah, nothing to it.



It doesn't matter where it came from. It has a name. Using a name affixed to something to do with an ethnic or racial stereotype is racist.

fix daddy and steak? Are you having a stroke?

Then why was the media calling it the China virus a couple months ago? You are a race tool. Your gig as well as this stupid reporterettes is over. F her and yes fix me a steak medium rare

 

[TennTradition]

How are you getting excess deaths? Using the CDC data, if I sum the expected deaths and total deaths, we actually have less: 847k vs 806k.

Understanding there's a lag, cutting it off at 4/24, it's 687k vs 715k, which is 28k extra deaths. There's a lot of numbers bouncing around in the news, all higher than the CDC provisional counts.

Note, I'm not really saying anything substantial here, just that I'm waiting for these updated CDC provisional counts.

Not accounting for the lag effect, this is what you get (below). As you can see, the lag makes a significant difference, but the appearance of excess deaths in the month of April is an obvious wave that is becoming clearer as we get more data / death certificates in. This is just all deaths in the US, from any cause, vs. 5-yr average for that week of the year (2015-2019).

 

[k-town_king]

You are an ethnocentric tool

I am above stooping to your level. When someone is clearly defeated they result to name calling. I will take this as your surrender.

What I’m being is factual . What you and many on the left aren’t bothering to be . You’ve overused the word so much you don’t have a clue what it actually is anymore except for a catch all to call someone that offends you . Your PC day in the sun is over .

I'm being factual unlike you.

PC day in the sun? Man you really wish you could just walk around dropping n bomb and racial slurs don't you? Sorry buddy those days are over. We are moving forward, not regressing to the ignorant times you dream of.

 

[vols40]

I am above stooping to your level. When someone is clearly defeated they result to name calling. I will take this as your surrender.


I'm being factual unlike you.

PC day in the sun? Man you really wish you could just walk around dropping n bomb and racial slurs don't you? Sorry buddy those days are over. We are moving forward, not regressing to the ignorant times you dream of.

You and the reporter who started the racist slant to this so yes you are racist and so is she.

 

[Rifleman]

Ignore the models and open back up? Or ignore models and stay shut down.

Look at the current data, set benchmarks for your opening up plan, start opening businesses and accelerate/de-accelerate the process as you hit the benchmarks until you are back at full capacity.

As long as the testing is robust enough to get a reasonable snap shot of the transmission rate, we'll succeed. We may be up to just under 20% with immunity now, so that puts us in a far better place to absorb the next blow.

People are worried about a Fall wave, but that wave will be suppressed by much more immunity than this first one which has been so deadly.

 

[headhunter15]

Thank God for Rand Paul and a little common sense during this mess.

 

[hog88]

Well then your clearly sexist...wait

Guilty without a shadow of a doubt.

 

[vols40]

Look at the current data, set benchmarks for your opening up plan, start opening businesses and accelerate/de-accelerate the process as you hit the benchmarks until you are back at full capacity.

As long as the testing is robust enough to get a reasonable snap shot of the transmission rate, we'll succeed. We may be up to just under 20% with immunity now, so that puts us in a far better place to absorb the next blow.

People are worried about a Fall wave, but that wave will be suppressed by much more immunity than this first one which has been so deadly.

The left will destroy you for these "untruths".
Great post

 

[TennTradition]

I don't care where it's calculated from. The other diseases and deaths hardly exist. Over-inflating!!!


It’s common sense and now known the virus was here as early as December. Why didn’t we see these massive numbers of deaths then? Why didn’t it ramp up to the levels we are at now immediately upon introduction to the community when we weren’t social distancing?


I also know someone, in Knoxville, that their Father recently died of cancer. He outlived his time they give him to live by 6 months. On hospice, in his house, and died during the normal hospice routine. They got the death certificate and it was listed as Covid.


+ 13,000 from Medicare with that one word.

A few points.

1) Unless the death certificates are literally made up (as in no person died) or we are euthanizing people and calling it COVID - the excess death data speaks for itself.
2) I've already posted that there is a big difference between "here in December" and the virus was "HERE in December" (meaning established and widespread community transmission)
3) There will be cases like the one you mentioned. So far those are not enough to make the trend in COVID-reported deaths exceed the number of excess deaths being reported. So far, it is trailing it (from the post I offered). This means other deaths are up (which could be true - while car deaths are way down, I could see some other deaths being up from not seeking care) or we are under-reporting COVID deaths.
4) It actually isn't +13,000 from Medicare for patients already on Medicare. It is +15% (maybe 20?) of a number that is already ~13,000 for severe respiratory infections. However, my understanding is that medicare is paying this rate uninsured COVID patients. So it is a +13k to the hospital vs. what they would receive if the patient were uninsured.

 

[hog88]

Did you read the article? Let me paste an excerpt and summarize for you:
80K+ dead, heading toward 150K by Aug.
He has no plan other than blame his predecessor, lie daily--shout "Fake News" when called out on it, and cross his fingers.

This isn’t because Trump is confident about November. White House reporters say the president is privately “glum and shell-shocked by his declining popularity.” His public behavior betrays the stress. He tweeted incessantly and manically on Sunday, then stormed out of a press conference yesterday after a jarring, testy exchange with reporters. He has begun a bizarre bombardment of his predecessor, Barack Obama, part of an unending search for villains. Trump is also deeply engaged in other efforts to boost his chances, including a campaign against voting by mail—a step many experts say is necessary to protect voters’ health, but which he has concluded (without much evidence) will help Democrats in November.
So much of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus was easily foretold. Experts had warned for years of a global pandemic. The president is obviously overmatched in his job. Trump badly botched the response to previous natural disasters, most prominently Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, and pundits had predicted that he would stumble worse when faced with a larger test. His chaotic style of governance, lack of faith in his advisers, and inability to maintain his attention were all manifest before the coronavirus, and are on vivid display now. He has never been interested in the actual work of policy. None of this should have been a surprise to anyone paying attention for the past three years.
But through it all, Trump displayed a clear will to win, and a keen instinct for what it took to do that. This makes his failure to come up with even a semblance of a plan—good, bad, or unclear—a true mystery. Yesterday, the U.S. death toll crossed 81,000, a mark Trump had previously said it would never touch. More recently, he’s offered 100,000 as a likely figure. Will the president have a plan for the pandemic by then? At the moment, he’s in no rush.

Ok, what's Joe's plan? Blame it on Trump?

 

[0nelilreb]

I am above stooping to your level. When someone is clearly defeated they result to name calling. I will take this as your surrender.


I'm being factual unlike you.

PC day in the sun? Man you really wish you could just walk around dropping n bomb and racial slurs don't you? Sorry buddy those days are over. We are moving forward, not regressing to the ignorant times you dream of.

You are an idiot that sees racist behind every tree just waiting to jump out and drop derogatory words . I agree we are moving forward and pointing out people like you is helping society to take those steps forward .

 

[k-town_king]

Then why was the media calling it the China virus a couple months ago? You are a race tool. Your gig as well as this stupid reporterettes is over. F her and yes fix me a steak medium rare

Covid-19 is the official name and what it is referred to. Now that we have a name using a stereotyped nickname is just racist.

What is a race tool? Is that the best you can do? Pretty weak there little guy.

Not surprised you try to use a sexist gendered way to refer to the REPORTER. You just keep making yourself look more ignorant. You are probably proud of that though. It seems ignorance is the goal of many of the cons.

 

[TennTradition]

Covid-19 is the official name and what it is referred to. Now that we have a name using a stereotyped nickname is just racist.

What is a race tool? Is that the best you can do? Pretty weak there little guy.

Not surprised you try to use a sexist gendered way to refer to the REPORTER. You just keep making yourself look more ignorant. You are probably proud of that though. It seems ignorance is the goal of many of the cons.

It's really SARS-CoV-2, and the disease we get from it is called COVID-19. But who's counting....

China Flu!

 

[k-town_king]

You and the reporter who started the racist slant to this so yes you are racist and so is she.

Typical racist thinking.

The guy who said the racist thing isn't the racist. The "real racists" are the ones who got insulted by it and the ones who call it out.

I got ya

 

[vols40]

Covid-19 is the official name and what it is referred to. Now that we have a name using a stereotyped nickname is just racist.

What is a race tool? Is that the best you can do? Pretty weak there little guy.

Not surprised you try to use a sexist gendered way to refer to the REPORTER. You just keep making yourself look more ignorant. You are probably proud of that though. It seems ignorance is the goal of many of the cons.

Answer the question. Why was it ever referred to as the China/Wuhan virus?

Come on you racist