Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#53,902
#53,902
Volsfaninva917 said:
It took them a month to acknowledge that Virginia was on stay at home orders lol
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There are very few people on earth who could create even a moderately close model of this stuff at this juncture, and every single one of them has more important work to do right now.

That's why I'd suggest ignoring any models at this point. Even the data we have after the fact isn't 100% correct, and that which comes from totalitarian countries isn't even close to reality.
 
#53,903
#53,903
Volsfaninva917 said:
Again, point to one President who has been through a pandemic, that is relevant to today and let's use his play book
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So it's okay to have no plan, tout a false cure, suggest a lethal cure, fight with governors, make false statements, lie about testing and be of no use to anyone? Trump is a liability at this point.
 
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#53,905
#53,905
allvol123 said:
Right after being wrong? They had TN at 5,000.
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Do you recall when they had TN at that high?

I just looked up their initial model from late March. It was 81k total US deaths. 1,500 in TN with peak on Apr 21 (predicted range was . They were too low in northeast and too high elsewhere. This 1500 definitely looks like it will end up being too high. (by late April they had revised TN down to 231). But, given that this model works by fitting deaths within their algorithm and there was very little state-by-state death data in late March as we were just starting to see deaths, it doesn't surprise me they did better on the US total but poorly on geography breakdown.
 
#53,906
#53,906
Rifleman said:
There are very few people on earth who could create even a moderately close model of this stuff at this juncture, and every single one of them has more important work to do right now.

That's why I'd suggest ignoring any models at this point. Even the data we have after the fact isn't 100% correct, and that which comes from totalitarian countries isn't even close to reality.
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This is true - data quality is making any modeling work incredibly difficult.
 
#53,907
#53,907
Purple Tiger said:
So it's okay to have no plan, tout a false cure, suggest a lethal cure, fight with governors, make false statements, lie about testing and be of no use to anyone? Trump is a liability at this point.
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Lets break this down 1 by 1 and keep in mind, I'm not a Trump fan but I believe in being fair
1. False cure: At the time, he said it showed promise which based off some very trusted Doctors in France it was very promising.
2. Lethal cure: Give me a break, this was taken out of context, words were twisted to fit a narrative.
3. Lie about testing? What lie has he told? Testing is improving every day.
4. Lets be clear, NO ONE has a plan at this point. Both sides are just stroking checks and spending money that isn't theirs. Thats all they know how to do is spend with no answers.
 
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#53,908
#53,908
Purple Tiger said:
Did you read the story? Can you tell me what Trump's plan is for the corona virus or the economy? It's apparent he's flying by the by the very wide seat of his pants.
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Did you just post that doctors learn new stuff about this virus daily and change their recommendations based on their new knowledge and then just a couple post down rip the President for changing what he says about the virus daily?
 
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#53,909
#53,909
Volsfaninva917 said:
It took them a month to acknowledge that Virginia was on stay at home orders lol
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Yet IHME has procuded some of the closest-tracking total US deaths projections I've seen.

In late March they were saying 82k by August (with peak deaths at over 2,300 in the second week of April). Given what we knew at the time, I'm impressed with how they captured the peak deaths/day and timing. And their total number, while likely low, wasn't THAT far off assuming we glide through phase 1 by the end of the month or early June at near 100k.
 
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#53,910
#53,910
TennTradition said:
Do you recall when they had TN at that high?

I just looked up their initial model from late March. It was 81k total US deaths. 1,500 in TN with peak on Apr 21 (predicted range was . They were too low in northeast and too high elsewhere. This 1500 definitely looks like it will end up being too high. (by late April they had revised TN down to 231). But, given that this model works by fitting deaths within their algorithm and there was very little state-by-state death data in late March as we were just starting to see deaths, it doesn't surprise me they did better on the US total but poorly on geography breakdown.
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It was around April 5.
 
#53,915
#53,915
TennTradition said:
This is true - data quality is making any modeling work incredibly difficult.
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I have worked with two guys who could absolutely create an accurate model of anything given a week. Part of their talent was seeing which variables matter in a sea of data. One now works on very complex large-scale genomics projects and the other crunches data at a particle accelerator lab. Both were on the autism spectrum, though.

I wish I could have a taste of that processing power without the negatives they had to fight through. All our staff meetings at that company were 5-10 minutes. The boss would posit an impossible technical challenge and one or the other would give us the solution before he could finish describing it.
 
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#53,916
#53,916
Volsfaninva917 said:
Lets break this down 1 by 1 and keep in mind, I'm not a Trump fan but I believe in being fair
1. False cure: At the time, he said it showed promise which based off some very trusted Doctors in France it was very promising.
2. Lethal cure: Give me a break, this was taken out of context, words were twisted to fit a narrative.
3. Lie about testing? What lie has he told? Testing is improving every day.
4. Lets be clear, NO ONE has a plan at this point. Both sides are just stroking checks and spending money that isn't theirs. Thats all they know how to do is spend with no answers.
Click to expand...
Has anyone asked WHY Hydroxycholoroquine was lauded in the first place?
 
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