Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#53,501
#53,501
rjd970 said:
SMH. Even if it is 10X more deadly than the flu, that is still a really small number. We still overreacted, because we addressed a 10X more deadly disease than the flu with a 100000000X times more increased response than the flu.
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Small number, eh? I suppose everything is relative, but... I'll do the math here, and you can tell me if this is a "small number" of potential deaths we're trying to avoid by quarantining.

The generally-accepted mortality rate for most common flu strains = 0.1%

Per the CDC, the 2017-18 flu season was above average and resulted in approximately 80,000 American deaths.

Thus, backtracking on these numbers, this means approximately 80 million Americans contracted the flu (80,000/0.1%). This seems reasonable, as it would mean roughly 1 out of every 4 of us caught the flu that year.

Now...

Apply this contraction rate to COVID-19.

80,000,000 x 1.3% = 1,040,000 deaths.

THIS is why we are using social distancing - to flatten the infection curve. To avoid our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed and respirators unavailable.

So...

Is 1 million deaths a "small number" to you for a single flu season?
 
#53,502
#53,502
allvol123 said:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
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It would be helpful for discussion purposes if you were to actually read the report and it's conclusions.

Per the report:

Discussion

"From an extensive analysis of data from different regions of the world, our best estimate at the current time for the case fatality ratio of COVID-19 in China is 1·38% (95% CrI 1·23–1·53)."

# # #

So, there it is. The study you cite estimates the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 1.38%. Basically the exact same number that presented in the newest study I posted.
 
#53,503
#53,503
MontyPython said:
Small number, eh? I suppose everything is relative, but... I'll do the math here, and you can tell me if this is a "small number" of potential deaths we're trying to avoid by quarantining.

The generally-accepted mortality rate for most common flu strains = 0.1%

Per the CDC, the 2017-18 flu season was above average and resulted in approximately 80,000 American deaths.

Thus, backtracking on these numbers, this means approximately 80 million Americans contracted the flu (80,000/0.1%). This seems reasonable, as it would mean roughly 1 out of every 4 of us caught the flu that year.

Now...

Apply this contraction rate to COVID-19.

80,000,000 x 1.3% = 1,040,000 deaths.

THIS is why we are using social distancing - to flatten the infection curve. To avoid our hospitals from becoming overwhelmed and respirators unavailable.

So...

Is 1 million deaths a "small number" to you for a single flu season?
Click to expand...

I don't know - is this a 1:1 comparison across all age ranges and conditions? Hell - just take the number of kids and infants that die from the flu and compare it against how many died from CV. CV has a higher mortality, but that is weighted significantly higher towards a specific segments of the population, namely elderly and those with at risk conditions. Nobody wants anybody to die, and this is awful, but we put up with a lot more deaths across all walks of life, health conditions, and situations without similar draconian measures that were instituted for CV.

The problem with you fear peddlers and drama queens is you don't look any deeper for context. You dig six inches below the surface, find your gold, play the emotion card, and declare victory. It's pathetic - whether this is explicitly your intention or not. CV isn't that bad when put in context and you can take your 1 million deaths and appeal to emotion and shove it.
 
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#53,504
#53,504
MontyPython said:
It would be helpful for discussion purposes if you were to actually read the report and it's conclusions.

Per the report:

Discussion

"From an extensive analysis of data from different regions of the world, our best estimate at the current time for the case fatality ratio of COVID-19 in China is 1·38% (95% CrI 1·23–1·53)."

# # #

So, there it is. The study you cite estimates the mortality rate of COVID-19 at 1.38%. Basically the exact same number that presented in the newest study I posted.
Click to expand...

It would be more helpful if you understood the difference between CFR and mortality rate.
 
#53,505
#53,505
Rifleman said:
Said no CEO ever . . .

Hey, Bob, you know what we need around here to get this merger done and that new plant up and running?

More millenials! Maybe you can get a few Gen Zs too?
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Said every CEO ever?

You are assuming the older person has decades of experience, which is not an apples to apples comparison.

Put a 22 year old and a 45 year old with a fresh college degree and no experience in front of a CEO.

See who gets the job.
 
#53,507
#53,507
I don't know how you can get an accurate reading on the death rate when some folks have it with no symptoms. I mean that I could have the flu, but also be covid positive. If I die, I probably am a covid statistic. How is the overall death rate form all disease? Are some death rates down? Are flu deaths down? Coronaries, cancer ? And could they be attributed to covid 19?
 
#53,508
#53,508
Trump supporters want us to believe that the number of infections and death rates do not justify the response and so they they promote reopening.

Still, here is this push to do so without testing being a priority of the administration. Trump and his supporters say they want things to reopen, but to do so confidently we need data; yet, they undermine the effort to collect data, or even to comment on it.

Open based on the data! Do not collect more data!

The circle of Trump intentional ignorance of the facts is truly remarkable.
 
#53,509
#53,509
lawgator1 said:
Trump supporters want us to believe that the number of infections and death rates do not justify the response and so they they promote reopening.

Still, here is this push to do so without testing being a priority of the administration. Trump and his supporters say they want things to reopen, but to do so confidently we need data; yet, they undermine the effort to collect data, or even to comment on it.

Open based on the data! Do not collect more data!

The circle of Trump intentional ignorance of the facts is truly remarkable.
Click to expand...
Hide under your desk then.
 
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#53,510
#53,510
lawgator1 said:
Trump supporters want us to believe that the number of infections and death rates do not justify the response and so they they promote reopening.

Still, here is this push to do so without testing being a priority of the administration. Trump and his supporters say they want things to reopen, but to do so confidently we need data; yet, they undermine the effort to collect data, or even to comment on it.

Open based on the data! Do not collect more data!

The circle of Trump intentional ignorance of the facts is truly remarkable.
Click to expand...

You're free to stay home.
 
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#53,513
#53,513
MontyPython said:
TRUMP THE HYPOCRITE

Hmmm... should one do as Trump says or do as Trump does. Yet another reason why Donald proves he's unfit to lead our country through this pandemic.

OVER THE WEEKEND:

"In conversations this weekend, Trump has expressed concern that aides contracting coronavirus would undercut his message that the outbreak is waning and states should begin reopening, according to a person who spoke to him.

Trump voiced frustration that two White House staffers tested positive for coronavirus and has asked why his valets weren't ordered to wear masks before this week, according to the person."

YET FRIDAY:

View attachment 278492

ALSO ON FRIDAY:

"President Donald Trump is increasingly dismissing the consensus of health experts, scientists and some of his Republican allies that widespread testing is key to the safe end of restrictions meant to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus, saying Friday that “testing isn’t necessary” and is an imperfect guide.

YET THURSDAY:

"President Trump will be tested for coronavirus on a daily basis after a military member who serves as the president's valet tested positive.

"So, we test once a week. Now we're going to go testing once a day," Trump said during an Oval Office meeting with the governor of Texas on Thursday."
Click to expand...

Yawn
 
#53,514
#53,514
lawgator1 said:
Trump supporters want us to believe that the number of infections and death rates do not justify the response and so they they promote reopening.

Still, here is this push to do so without testing being a priority of the administration. Trump and his supporters say they want things to reopen, but to do so confidently we need data; yet, they undermine the effort to collect data, or even to comment on it.

Open based on the data! Do not collect more data!

The circle of Trump intentional ignorance of the facts is truly remarkable.
Click to expand...

There is a contingent of people who don't support Trump that can look a reason and common sense and promote reopening.

As is said before, you can stay at home if you want. Anybody that says they don't feel safe coming to work will probably be fine. Lawyers and your like will be on the ready with lawsuits if they get fired.

At this point there is no reason to hold the whole country hostage as we have been.
 
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#53,515
#53,515
Septic said:
I'm not disagreeing that the reaction was worse than the virus, but that's still a subjective opinion. Hindsight, fortunately, allows for us to grouse about it.

You've failed to address the question of at which age does the value of life become less important or valuable, objectively. COVID may primarily affect older folks, but it's not JUST octogenarians. Anecdotally, I had a guy that lives a mile away from me die, he was a healthy 39 year old.
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BS
 
#53,516
#53,516
afb051020dAPC20200510054505.jpg
 
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#53,522
#53,522
lawgator1 said:
Trump supporters want us to believe that the number of infections and death rates do not justify the response and so they they promote reopening.

Still, here is this push to do so without testing being a priority of the administration. Trump and his supporters say they want things to reopen, but to do so confidently we need data; yet, they undermine the effort to collect data, or even to comment on it.

Open based on the data! Do not collect more data!

The circle of Trump intentional ignorance of the facts is truly remarkable.
Click to expand...

What amazes me more is the fact that people think we can all sit hunkered down and wait for a vaccine to a virus without burning this country to the ground around us . There’s always a balanced line between civility and chaos , right now we totally dependent on our supply chains and money from the government to keep that balance. We are playing with a box of matches in a sage grass field .
 
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#53,523
#53,523
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#53,525
#53,525
vols40 said:
Ok no disrespect but if that guy in the picture is to whom you are referring he is at the very least obese.
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He doesn't look obese to me. He is black however, and the virus seems to be affecting black people more seriously. Don't know why that would be.

A question that I have is whether or not the flu kills people that you wouldn't expect to die. We never hear of those, but we hear of every seemingly healthy person that dies of the virus. Does the news media want to sensationalize this more than they do the flu?
 
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