OK, time for me to be a bit of a Debbie Downer.
Caveat: Cuomo says hospital admissions are going down - and that is solid data. So hopefully will be a positive sign for things to come. However, I'm not as confident as I was before today that this actually reflects cases peaking. It could - but the testing actually doesn't support that. Again - I wonder if hospital admission is dropping because more and more people are being given hydroxychloroquine before arriving at the hospital. But - that should be an easy question? Did Cuomo lift his ban on prescribing HCQ outside of urgent care or hospitals? If not, then I would have to question if that is what is causing the drop.
Anyway - the reason I'm not confident that the testing suggests we have reached peak NY new cases/day is below.
I pulled all the positive + negative test data from New York and compared their trend in positive /day vs. total tests / day. We are basing a lot of our optimism in New York around the fact that new cases / day are dropping. However, here are the data.
Optimistic: Cases/Day Peaked in NY
3/30 6984
3/31 9298
4/1 7917
4/2 8669
4/3 10482 (Peak)
4/4 10841 (Peak)
4/5 8327
4/6 8658
4/7 8174
4/8 10453 (Uh-Oh)
Pessimism Total Tests / Day Peak in NY
3/30 14108
3/31 18718
4/1 15694
4/2 18085
4/3 21555 (Peak)
4/4 23101 (Peak)
4/5 18659
4/6 18531
4/7 19247
4/8 25095 (Hmm....)
We cleared about 40,000 pending tests over the weekend of April 3/4 nationally. Some of these must have been in NY because you see a clear spike up over that weekend in tests/day. But, you also see that is what we "saw" as the peak cases in NY. In fact, we ran about 3-4k new cases, and surprise, we had 1.5-2k more cases on those days because we are basically running at 50% positive tests in NY.
I'm not so confident this is peaking there.
Hopefully I'm wrong.
Or at least, hopefully hospital admissions are peaking due to treatments (if not case numbers) and we'll see fewer deaths/day starting sometime next week perhaps.
Honestly it is better if cases are still growing but deaths start going down. Because we'll hit herd immunity with fewer deaths that way vs. keeping people from getting infected by social distancing, but then having a hard time getting back to work without it blowing up again.