Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#34,352
#34,352
DancingOutlaw said:
You see this in forecasts where the end result isn’t being changed but the preceding data points are. For example you plan to spend $1M for the year and it’s the second week of October and you’ve spent $600 in total. October-December will have monster numbers even though you know they aren’t realistic because you’re not changing that $1M. The confidence level upsides in this model are nuts. The estimate in TN for a given day is 12 deaths but it could be 89. How?
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This model isn’t like some other models such as the Imperial model. You don’t feed it a lot of assumptions to model deaths (the assumptions come in turning that into estimations of all the other things). They fit the death curve to something called a Gaussian error function. That’s what gives it its shape. It isn’t clear to me what the key parameters are that determine the peak in their model, maybe I’ll spend some time figuring that out tomorrow.

Anyway, when there is large fluctuation in priors, the model is going to put large uncertainty on those input which propagates to large uncertainty in future predictions. Where data input is clunky, the model is going to have big error bars. With New York, the signal is strong (unfortunately that said another way means there have been a lot of deaths) which smooths the inputs (standard deviation goes as 1 over the square root of the number of observations). But with states like Tennessee the model is still trying to lock into a signal. The large nursing home breakout and resulting deaths can really throw it off because it’s a big surge then quiet again after. The data fit is trying to make sense of that but the signal isn’t very large so it ends up with bigger error bars.
 
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#34,353
#34,353
NCFisher said:
It was that they didn't qualify it, really, at all. Fauci dismissed the possibility under heavy pressure by Ingraham.
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I would think a Trump advisor was aware that the data from China was likely bullcrap. He may have been trying to stay friendly with China at the time. They could have been a great ally what with them having the only widespread experience fighting COVID-19.
 
#34,357
#34,357
Rasputin_Vol said:
I guess that was more of a rhetorical question. But it just seems like the info is too intrusive.
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Oh, well carry on then :)

It’s scrubbed in the sense that there is no identifying info when these companies get it. But some meta data like the zip code that phone visited overnight for example.

I was kind of weirded out when I first got the pitch from that company. Blew my mind what you could do. But I guess I’m just used to the idea of it now.
 
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#34,358
#34,358
TennTradition said:
Oh, well carry on then :)

It’s scrubbed in the sense that there is no identifying info when these companies get it. But some meta data like the zip code that phone visited overnight for example.

I was kind of weirded out when I first got the pitch from that company. Blew my mind what you could do. But I guess I’m just used to the idea of it now.
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Sure. No way to identify people.

TennTradition said:
Here’s one example. We subscribe to a company that uses satellite data and cell phones to track how busy restaurants are, malls, Wal Marts, drug stores etc. See a surge at Walgreens. Flu season is possibly early. For example.

You can lay correlations over various malls and track via cellphones what zip codes those phones return to at night. That gives you data about the average income of who is visiting the mall. Trends in that can give you an understanding of anything from disposable income to where you might want to make investments as an equity investor.
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If you can track what malls, stores or restaurants people go to, you telling me they can't narrow down what house those hones go to? Or what job they go to?

OK
 
#34,360
#34,360
TennTradition said:
Oh, well carry on then :)

It’s scrubbed in the sense that there is no identifying info when these companies get it. But some meta data like the zip code that phone visited overnight for example.

I was kind of weirded out when I first got the pitch from that company. Blew my mind what you could do. But I guess I’m just used to the idea of it now.
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No concern about privacy issues? No "slippery slope" concerns?
 
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#34,362
#34,362
West Vol said:
Drawing it out was the whole point.
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I'm well aware of what the point of this is. We need to avoid overloading the healthcare system and flattening the curve is seen as the only way to do that. It makes sense to take measures to flatten the curve, however, I think we've overdone it. Feel free to disagree, but I think some of the drastic actions we've taken will do more harm than good. 1) Very few will have any sort of immunity to this when it comes back, even the younger, healthier population. 2) the economy tanks.
 
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#34,363
#34,363
I put a order in for a passport back in February and still haven’t got it bc of this stupid ass virus. I know not a lot of places are open right now for travel but since I’m laid off as soon as some bans are lifted I’d like to be able to go somewhere! Haha
 
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#34,364
#34,364
NurseGoodVol said:
Agree, run titres to see who has had it. But 330m might be a bit much.
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#34,365
#34,365
BisonVol said:
I'm well aware of what the point of this is. We need to avoid overloading the healthcare system and flattening the curve is seen as the only way to do that. It makes sense to take measures to flatten the curve, however, I think we've overdone it. Feel free to disagree, but I think some of the drastic actions we've taken will do more harm than good. 1) Very few will have any sort of immunity to this when it comes back, even the younger, healthier population. 2) the economy tanks.
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Things seem to be trending positively now, so obviously we should have done less.
 
#34,371
#34,371
NurseGoodVol said:
Agree, run titres to see who has had it. But 330m might be a bit much.
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The world is throwing the book at it. Humans are doing everything they can to prevent the loss of life. It bugs me that some are playing victim because of the "economy". Not directed at you at all.
 
#34,372
#34,372
West Vol said:
First off. If you are going to use quotation marks, make sure they contain a quote. Second, that is accurate.

Elderly people can’t just not interact with people under 50.
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My mom is mid 70s. Her kids can drop food off on the back porch and any other thing needed.

How about we stop stupidly acting like it's all or nothing.
 
#34,374
#34,374
Mick said:
The world is throwing the book at it. Humans are doing everything they can to prevent the loss of life. It bugs me that some are playing victim because of the "economy". Not directed at you at all.
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LOL. Why did you type, "Humans"???

Are the animals slacking in their approach?
 
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