Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#34,276
#34,276
West Vol said:
Regular people under 60 are going critical without any preexisting conditions or warning signs. So the problem is we can’t really identify the vulnerable populations outside immunocompromised or old, but we know they exist.

4 weeks isn’t enough time because we’ve seen transmission of the virus 2 weeks after symptoms disappear and symptoms seems to vary as to how long they last, or how long it takes them to arise. And not everyone is going to get infected right away. So if we let up at 4 weeks, there are still going to be a lot of carriers out there. So his plan would need some tweaking if we were to go that route.
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Very few people under 60; there is no zero sum calculation.

We left 4 weeks behind with my reply. I don't know that he's prescribing 4 weeks or speaking figuratively.

There are going to be carriers regardless, again, there is no zero sum corner to hide in.
 
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#34,277
#34,277
afb040520dAPR20200407024859.jpg
 
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#34,278
#34,278
allvol123 said:
As a modeler, you think it is a good job to have actuals of 41k today, update your model tonight and then have projected 98k for tomorrow? Hospitalizations.
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You see this in forecasts where the end result isn’t being changed but the preceding data points are. For example you plan to spend $1M for the year and it’s the second week of October and you’ve spent $600 in total. October-December will have monster numbers even though you know they aren’t realistic because you’re not changing that $1M. The confidence level upsides in this model are nuts. The estimate in TN for a given day is 12 deaths but it could be 89. How?
 
#34,282
#34,282
NCFisher said:
Very few people under 60; there is no zero sum calculation.

We left 4 weeks behind with my reply. I don't know that he's prescribing 4 weeks or speaking figuratively.

There are going to be carriers regardless, again, there is no zero sum corner to hide in.
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There will be a lot of carriers if we only do four weeks. Enough that the whole plan will basically be worthless other than delaying the elderly deaths a month.
 
#34,286
#34,286
Mick said:
You have only two options, heard immunity or vaccine. Right now we are just trying to control the spread and treat symptoms to save lives. One has nothing to do with the other. There's a difference between a band aid and cure.
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If you wreck every economy what’s the point of the vaccine?

I know you’re homeless, your state has collapsed, and your kids are starving, but good news! We have a vaccine for that virus that has no effect on 85% of people.
 
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#34,289
#34,289
West Vol said:
But we have plenty of evidence that allowing the number of cases to build up leads to a huge spike in death rate.
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True. It is also dishonest to believe that their isnt a reasonable argument to be made for building up immunities for the long haul. You're not going to quarantine this virus out of existence.
 
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#34,290
#34,290
In March, US Deaths From COVID-19 Totaled Less Than 2% Of All Deaths

As Lee notes, total COVID-19 deaths could still increase significantly this season, but even then we must ask what percentage of total deaths warrants an international panic. Is it 5 percent? Ten percent? The question has never been addressed, and so far, a figure of 1 percent of total deaths in some places is being treated as a reason to forcibly shut down the global economy.
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deeaths_compared.png
 
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#34,294
#34,294
allvol123 said:
True. It is also dishonest to believe that their isnt a reasonable argument to be made for building up immunities for the long haul. You're not going to quarantine this virus out of existence.
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You don’t have to get everyone infected at the exact same time to do that. The curve is flattened, but the area under the curve is about the same.
 
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#34,295
#34,295
DancingOutlaw said:
If you wreck every economy what’s the point of the vaccine?

I know you’re homeless, your state has collapsed, and your kids are starving, but good news! We have a vaccine for that virus that has no effect on 85% of people.
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So you depend on that other 85% of the population to build your house and feed your kids with the concept of money?
 
#34,299
#34,299
West Vol said:
You don’t have to get everyone infected at the exact same time to do that. The curve is flattened, but the area under the curve is about the same.
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What is lost here is flattening the curve is delaying the healthy and not at risk from getting it, extending the threat timeline for those that are at risk.

From the beginning, this should have been strict quarantine for at risk and their caretakers, and limited social distancing for everyone else. The blanket social distancing order and shutting down the economy in order to carpet bomb our way to a flatter curve will definitely cause more damage economically, and possibly more damage medically, long term. The fastest and safest way to get 80% of the healthy population infected and immune should be the goal.

I’m not an expert and will freely admit that, but that seems reasonable and there are epidemiologists that agree.
 
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