Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#34,239
#34,239
allvol123 said:
I think someone showed on 4/05 we had 41k hospitalizations. IHME model predicted 150 to 225k from their 4/01 model. They then updated to a 04/05 model, which predicted 98k hospitalizations for 4/06. Seems we did smash.
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They are actually modeling deaths directly and then scaling from there. I’m not really sure how much I like their model but I’m mainly just trying to fairly characterize it.

They changed their assumptions around how long someone has to be hospitalized and how many have to be hospitalized per death. Deaths did not move much at all until the most recent run and I believe it still falls inside the original uncertainty cone. Some of their changes were due to how CV is being treated in the US vs other countries - but it isn’t clear to me how much of it is. I’d like to better understand those changes that led to updates in the number of hospitalizations.

To me what’s been most impressive is it’s prediction of peaks. I was multiple weeks later in my very rough models but couldn’t get the early peaks they were seeing. However it looks like they might have gotten that timeframe right.
 
#34,241
#34,241
allvol123 said:
Parking lots are a mysterious, yet useful tool to gauge crowds.
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Well I can’t think of a more exact way to measure the number of shoppers than a snapshot of cars. Kroger’s overall sales are way, way up both due to stockpiling and the issues restaurants are having.

Clicklist is overwhelmed. People that never used it before are now using it exclusively. As an experiment, call Kroger and ask them to make a change to your next order.
 
#34,242
#34,242
allvol123 said:
You have yours and I have mine. No way I consider this light.
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It’s just a global definition that has been assigned by some groups to describe the various degrees of response.

-Business as Usual
-Social Distancing
-Light lockdown
-Full lockdown

If you look around the globe some are doing more aggressive actions than we are. So to compare approaches there needs to be something “heavier”.

No reason to get caught up in names. We are being aggressive. There are even more aggressive actions we could take.
 
#34,243
#34,243
TennTradition said:
They are actually modeling deaths directly and then scaling from there. I’m not really sure how much I like their model but I’m mainly just trying to fairly characterize it.

They changed their assumptions around how long someone has to be hospitalized and how many have to be hospitalized per death. Deaths did not move much at all until the most recent run and I believe it still falls inside the original uncertainty cone. Some of their changes were due to how CV is being treated in the US vs other countries - but it isn’t clear to me how much of it is. I’d like to better understand those changes that led to updates in the number of hospitalizations.

To me what’s been most impressive is it’s prediction of peaks. I was multiple weeks later in my very rough models but couldn’t get the early peaks they were seeing. However it looks like they might have gotten that timeframe right.
Click to expand...

As a modeler, you think it is a good job to have actuals of 41k today, update your model tonight and then have projected 98k for tomorrow? Hospitalizations.
 
#34,244
#34,244
jp1 said:
Honestly, curious to the answers.
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We have had 2 critical that came in with elevated liver panels pre hydrochloroquine. Looking at their vital signs they had a low flow state for a period of time. The one we lost was already in MODS and didn't receive HCQ.
 
#34,245
#34,245
Mick said:
Can you think of anyone better to listen to in the world?
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Cautiously optimistic here...bureaucrats that’ve been head cheese since ‘84 and who are aligned with billionaire vaccine manufacturers give me pause to consider other angles and agendas.

Hoping for the best.
 
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#34,246
#34,246
West Vol said:
Well I can’t think of a more exact way to measure the number of shoppers than a snapshot of cars. Kroger’s overall sales are way, way up both due to stockpiling and the issues restaurants are having.

Clicklist is overwhelmed. People that never used it before are now using it exclusively. As an experiment, call Kroger and ask them to make a change to your next order.
Click to expand...

I know the difference between a half full parking lot and a full one and what that translates into in terms of foot traffic in the store.
 
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#34,247
#34,247
West Vol said:
4 weeks would not enough time to begin exposing the vulnerable people. Although, we still aren’t entirely sure who the vulnerable are.

Lockdown may be a lot lighter next time because we’ll already have some degree of immunity and hopefully doctors in the hot zones like NYC and NO will have figured out the best ways to treat the more severe cases and share that with the rest of the world.
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Okay, you know better than the epidemiologist guy; 6 weeks, 8 weeks then. That'd probably do it.
Regular people under 60 have tiny to no risk as age decreases and are the vast bulk of the working economy. Why can't they resume keeping this country afloat?
 
#34,250
#34,250
Watch: Islamic Scholar Decries Poor Toilet Habits of ‘Impure’ Westerners

Jordanian Islamic scholar Ahmad al-Shahrouri has scolded people living in the West for their “lack of purity and cleanliness” in the age of coronavirus.

He says those living beyond the reach of Islam are more prone to diseases like the coronavirus because they do not wash their behinds with water after using the restroom like Muslims do.

“They have currently run out of toilet paper in their markets because they do not use water,” al-Shahrouri told Jordan’s Yarmouk TV on March 29, as translated by the Middle East Media Reserch Institute (MEMRI).

He added: “They are plagued by these diseases, these microbes and these viruses because they do not clean their filth enough.”

Recalling a time when his “head almost exploded” from the “stench” of two Westerners he sat between on a plane, Al-Shahrouri said Muslims should praise Allah for requiring them to perform ablution, according to MEMRI.

Islamic Scholar: Poor Toilet Habits of 'Impure' Westerners Aids Coronavirus
 
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