Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#34,204
#34,204
allvol123 said:
And that is your opinion. I dont consider unemployment skyrocketing to unheard of levels, "light". I dont consider a 2 trillion dollar spending bill, "light". I dont consider people's movement restrictions being mandated as "light".

We literally did not consider the advantages of allowing immunities to be built up among certain populations.
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The big difference is freedom of movement within a town/state. Also how large the essential list is. Also we are not mandating the number of times we can grocery shop, etc. these are measures taken other places to varying degrees. And others are doing less than we are.

UK started with what you propose and then it was moving so fast they just went harder lockdown, more aggressive than we are. As I understand it. I do think it’s an interesting idea. And I think it’s how we’ll go back after the light lockdown.
 
#34,206
#34,206
Hunerwadel said:
He want's to just shelter the most vulnerable in society? Does he know who that is. Granted the virus is more harmful and deadly to older and sick people but it's not exclusively killing those people. Does he want to pick and choose who takes chances? Besides we've gone this far lets wait until May and see if this becomes less of a problem in the summer as do most respiratory viruses. Hopefully by fall or winter we have a vaccine.

Companies around the world are working 24-7 trying to find a vaccine because whichever lab gets it first wins a gigantic lottery.
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Empirically, we know age 60 - 70 is about 3.4% mortality, the next decade about 8%, and around 15% for >80. The actual rate is going to be considerable lower because of the unconfirmed infected, and counting every death as C19 regardless of cause.

If we come out a month from now and this blows up again, do we shut in again? I don't think so. We don't know that this strategy was the right thing this time. I thought he stated his position well:

“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated,” he added.

You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.

Vaccines simply take time, 1 - 1.5 years. Every week jeopardizes a justifiable answer to the question "what will there be to come back to?"
 
#34,210
#34,210
NCFisher said:
Empirically, we know age 60 - 70 is about 3.4% mortality, the next decade about 8%, and around 15% for >80. The actual rate is going to be considerable lower because of the unconfirmed infected, and counting every death as C19 regardless of cause.

If we come out a month from now and this blows up again, do we shut in again? I don't think so. We don't know that this strategy was the right thing this time. I thought he stated his position well:

“With all respiratory diseases, the only thing that stops the disease is herd immunity. About 80% of the people need to have had contact with the virus, and the majority of them won’t even have recognized that they were infected, or they had very, very mild symptoms, especially if they are children. So, it’s very important to keep the schools open and kids mingling to spread the virus to get herd immunity as fast as possible, and then the elderly people, who should be separated, and the nursing homes should be closed during that time, can come back and meet their children and grandchildren after about 4 weeks when the virus has been exterminated,” he added.

You cannot stop the spread of a respiratory disease within a family, and you cannot stop it from spreading with neighbors, with people who are delivering, who are physicians—anybody. People are social, and even in times of social distancing, they have contacts, and any of those contacts could spread the disease. It will go slowly, and so it will not build up herd immunity, but it will happen. And it will go on forever unless we let it go.

Vaccines simply take time, 1 - 1.5 years. Every week jeopardizes a justifiable answer to the question "what will there be to come back to?"
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4 weeks would not enough time to begin exposing the vulnerable people. Although, we still aren’t entirely sure who the vulnerable are.

Lockdown may be a lot lighter next time because we’ll already have some degree of immunity and hopefully doctors in the hot zones like NYC and NO will have figured out the best ways to treat the more severe cases and share that with the rest of the world.
 
#34,214
#34,214
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#34,216
#34,216
Hunerwadel said:
Come on man. Quit whining, toughen up and show a little backbone. You do realize when this is over the average American will still be better off than nearly everyone else on earth, right?
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Great bar you've set. Just be better off than an Ethiopian or Venezuelan.

I dont need someone hiding in their basement to tell me to toughen up.
 
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#34,217
#34,217
West Vol said:
I would assume we are not privy to such discussions, but there is essentially zero chance epidemiologists didn’t at least consider the idea.
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I'm not getting the feeling it was heavily considered. Fauci seem to go from this will be like a really bad flu season to shut to country down, in about a 3 week span.
 
#34,219
#34,219
West Vol said:
Oh. Well if you haven’t changed your behavior we can assume no one else has.

Weird how Kroger Clicklist is booked out a week whereas it was rarely beyond 24 hours in 2019.

Also, if you’re always using Clicklist, are you just heading inside periodically to gauge the crowds?
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Parking lots are a mysterious, yet useful tool to gauge crowds.
 
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#34,220
#34,220
allvol123 said:
He is the lead disease control adviser to the POTUS. This POTUS is not a science guy, probably most arent, so as POTUS you have to heavily consider what this guy states. I assume F proposed several scenarios....if we do X, then Y happens. If we do A, then B happens. My points are - to say F has most certainly played a major role in what route we took and part of the reason we took the route we did is because I believe he relayed his belief in these doomsday scenarios to POTUS if we did not go scorched Earth.
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Birx was considerably more inclined to the wild models than Fauci; we saw this tension the last couple weeks. Robert Redfield/CDC was more aligned with Fauci, and possibly more skeptical of the models. Other prominent task force members from DHS, NSC, State and others had loud voices in the decision; we don't know their positions.

I think Fauci was likely the median value between Birx's model centrism, and those who said "Shut it down? And for how long?? Are you kidding?" I didn't appreciate a couple of his antics while Trump was speaking, but it appears he was told to maintain his composure on stage and did.

On the other hand, both were saying in March they trusted the numbers out of China. And to me, for reasons that don't properly square with the fact they likely got colleague-colleague info from Chinese counterparts who had a sword over their heads.
 
#34,222
#34,222
NCFisher said:
Birx was considerably more inclined to the wild models than Fauci; we saw this tension the last couple weeks. Robert Redfield/CDC was more aligned with Fauci, and possibly more skeptical of the models. Other prominent task force members from DHS, NSC, State and others had loud voices in the decision; we don't know their positions.

I think Fauci was likely the median value between Birx's model centrism, and those who said "Shut it down? And for how long?? Are you kidding?" I didn't appreciate a couple of his antics while Trump was speaking, but it appears he was told to maintain his composure on stage and did.

On the other hand, both were saying in March they trusted the numbers out of China. And to me, for reasons that don't properly square with the fact they likely got colleague-colleague info from Chinese counterparts who had a sword over their heads.
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More like a gun to the head of their Chinese associates by the Chinese authorities.
 
#34,223
#34,223
TennTradition said:
Did we smash the IMHE model? I bet our deaths are still tracking inside the error bands on the original mode runs.

Also it’s we have moved from social distancing to light lockdowns over the time since the first model runs. And we are also extending the time that we are thinking about doing those.
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I think someone showed on 4/05 we had 41k hospitalizations. IHME model predicted 150 to 225k from their 4/01 model. They then updated to a 04/05 model, which predicted 98k hospitalizations for 4/06. Seems we did smash.
 
#34,225
#34,225
TennTradition said:
The big difference is freedom of movement within a town/state. Also how large the essential list is. Also we are not mandating the number of times we can grocery shop, etc. these are measures taken other places to varying degrees. And others are doing less than we are.

UK started with what you propose and then it was moving so fast they just went harder lockdown, more aggressive than we are. As I understand it. I do think it’s an interesting idea. And I think it’s how we’ll go back after the light lockdown.
Click to expand...

You have yours and I have mine. No way I consider this light.
 
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