Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[allvol123]

People are receiving them on the basis of their 2019 (or 2018 if they haven't filed yet) adjusted gross income, not whether or not they lost their job.

Rightly or wrongly, this wasn't a targeted stimulus at all. Same on the business side...small businesses can get the payroll protection loans/grants whether or not they need them. It's free money for most of them.

It isnt targeted, which is stupid. We dropped an atomic bomb trying to save the economy, the same method we used on fighting the virus.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

Part of the reason for this is that a large percentage of the people on ventilators are not expected to survive, but they maintain for awhile. So deaths will trail behind other plateaus.

 

[allvol123]

My wife is a teacher and I'll tell you right now her work load has tripled since schools have closed. She is required to make contact with every student 4 times per week, document every contact and its nature, prepare online assignments for every class 3-4 times weekly, coordinate this with other teachers on the same grade level and then be available to assist students who email and call. And trust me she gets calls from students and their parents at all hours of the day. Trust me, teachers are working theirs asses off right now...or at least my wife is.

What does this have to do with my post?

 

[golfballs]

Yes but in most states the extra $600 hasn't kicked in yet, talking to my HR person for my guys here it's still about 2 weeks away from starting here in TN

Aren’t they going to pay that in arrears?

 

[DinkinFlicka]

It is big govt waste as usual. If you are clearly a part of a large and definable group that is not being negatively impacted financially, then you shouldnt be getting anything. They are already increasing their disposable income by still getting paid and having lower expenses such as gas, food, entertainment, etc.

You're not wrong. I was just explaining why they're doing it.

 

[newyorkvol]

Again, it's to encourage consumerism. It isn't necessarily aimed at the unemployed.

Well if it’s to encourage consumerism then why is there an income ceiling? Seems like they could consume the 12/2400 just as well.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Well if it’s to encourage consumerism then why is there an income ceiling? Seems like they could consume the 12/2400 just as well.

Because it's money the government technically doesn't have.

 

[Rifleman]

Tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
4/1 = 26,473 (26,550 Predicted)
4/2 = 29,874 (30,330)
4/3 = 32,284 (32,540)
4/4 = 34,196 (36,190)
4/5 = 25,316 (38,270)
4/6 = 30,331 (40,820)

Median Predicted New Case Numbers Next 5 Days - Rate of increase continues to slow

4/7 31,650
4/8 33,840
4/9 35,520
4/10 36,500
4/11 38,760

Current Predicted peak Daily New Cases

4/14 41,312 Probably going to bump up and down around this peak for a little while as top of the curve is probably very flat now.

I'm going to let this stand as my final data point, as the first climb is nearly over and what happens next be will much more complicated: every metropolitan and rural statistical area needs to be be considered independently and the number of variables involved will make you have useless margins of error unless you find tight correlations to clear the noise.

The last two days are heavily deviating (in a positive direction) from what is now a long steady trend line, and my outputs dropped accordingly. Maybe that's premature--I'm trying to catch trends as they happen--but even assuming these two days are outliers only pushes the peak forward a day or two and does little to change the drop in transmission rate.

Testing backlog getting through the system is the likely explanation, but there a thousand variables and I am only interested in two big questions: is the transmission rate dropping and are we nearing a peak in cases?

It is pretty clear the answer, to both of those, is a big yes.

My final question is: is this the last peak, or the first? I think we are likely to see smaller spikes, but I doubt any will top the nearest high water mark. We should be degrading the number of overall cases in a few weeks, but that is a landmark that has been moving forward like a rabbit at the dog track as we flatten the curve. If we had done nothing to mitigate, for instance, we'd be degrading cases very soon but probably would have gotten to around a 150k a day peak.

Stay safe out there.

 

[lawgator1]

Tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
4/1 = 26,473 (26,550 Predicted)
4/2 = 29,874 (30,330)
4/3 = 32,284 (32,540)
4/4 = 34,196 (36,190)
4/5 = 25,316 (38,270)
4/6 = 30,331 (40,820)

Median Predicted New Case Numbers Next 5 Days - Rate of increase continues to slow

4/7 31,650
4/8 33,840
4/9 35,520
4/10 36,500
4/11 38,760

Current Predicted peak Daily New Cases

4/14 41,312 Probably going to bump up and down around this peak for a little while as top of the curve is probably very flat now.

I'm going to let this stand as my final data point, as the first climb is nearly over and what happens next be will much more complicated: every metropolitan and rural statistical area needs to be be considered independently and the number of variables involved will make you have useless margins of error unless you find tight correlations to clear the noise.

The last two days are heavily deviating (in a positive direction) from what is now a long steady trend line, and my outputs dropped accordingly. Maybe that's premature--I'm trying to catch trends as they happen--but even assuming these two days are outliers only pushes the peak forward a day or two and does little to change the drop in transmission rate.

Testing backlog getting through the system is the likely explanation, but there a thousand variables and I am only interested in two big questions: is the transmission rate dropping and are we nearing a peak in cases?

It is pretty clear the answer, to both of those, is a big yes.

My final question is: is this the last peak, or the first? I think we are likely to see smaller spikes, but I doubt any will top the nearest high water mark. We should be degrading the number of overall cases in a few weeks, but that is a landmark that has been moving forward like a rabbit at the dog track as we flatten the curve. If we had done nothing to mitigate, for instance, we'd be degrading cases very soon but probably would have gotten to around a 150k a day peak.

Stay safe out there.

These have been very interesting to read. I am sure it takes a bit of work to do the input and modeling. Thanks for posting!

 

[allvol123]

Going to be an ugly day on deaths. NY and GA and a couple others have posted large numbers already. We knew it was coming but still hate to see it.

 

[05_never_again]

It isnt targeted, which is stupid. We dropped an atomic bomb trying to save the economy, the same method we used on fighting the virus.

The unemployment portion of it was. If you lost your job, you get more unemployment than you used to. In some cases, you get more in unemployment (for a period of time) than you did working. That can't be good when this is over and business look to re-hire - people aren't going to go to work and take a corresponding pay cut.

As others have said, the checks for everyone making less than $200k (filing jointly) is to encourage consumerism and get people spending money at the businesses that have been impacted.

Well if it’s to encourage consumerism then why is there an income ceiling? Seems like they could consume the 12/2400 just as well.

Because wealthy people who get the checks are likely to save them, not spend it at Wal-Mart.

 

[newyorkvol]

Because it's money the government technically doesn't have.

I know. I’m playing devils advocate. If there are restrictions placed on level of income, then certainly restrictions could be made on current employment.
For example, what if my wife and I are both employed privately and our 2019 income was 200k/yr. But our workplaces are still operating, but at a significantly less capacity, thereby lessening our current pay by an estimated 50K/yr. We are not eligible for the 2400, though it would significantly benefit us since we work on a budget of 200k/yr.
Alternatively, 2 teachers are making 75k/yr each still have their same current pay not affecting family budget but will get the 2400.

 

[Orangeburst]

Tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
4/1 = 26,473 (26,550 Predicted)
4/2 = 29,874 (30,330)
4/3 = 32,284 (32,540)
4/4 = 34,196 (36,190)
4/5 = 25,316 (38,270)
4/6 = 30,331 (40,820)

Median Predicted New Case Numbers Next 5 Days - Rate of increase continues to slow

4/7 31,650
4/8 33,840
4/9 35,520
4/10 36,500
4/11 38,760

Current Predicted peak Daily New Cases

4/14 41,312 Probably going to bump up and down around this peak for a little while as top of the curve is probably very flat now.

I'm going to let this stand as my final data point, as the first climb is nearly over and what happens next be will much more complicated: every metropolitan and rural statistical area needs to be be considered independently and the number of variables involved will make you have useless margins of error unless you find tight correlations to clear the noise.

The last two days are heavily deviating (in a positive direction) from what is now a long steady trend line, and my outputs dropped accordingly. Maybe that's premature--I'm trying to catch trends as they happen--but even assuming these two days are outliers only pushes the peak forward a day or two and does little to change the drop in transmission rate.

Testing backlog getting through the system is the likely explanation, but there a thousand variables and I am only interested in two big questions: is the transmission rate dropping and are we nearing a peak in cases?

It is pretty clear the answer, to both of those, is a big yes.

My final question is: is this the last peak, or the first? I think we are likely to see smaller spikes, but I doubt any will top the nearest high water mark. We should be degrading the number of overall cases in a few weeks, but that is a landmark that has been moving forward like a rabbit at the dog track as we flatten the curve. If we had done nothing to mitigate, for instance, we'd be degrading cases very soon but probably would have gotten to around a 150k a day peak.

Stay safe out there.

Thank you Rifle. I always look forward to your updates. Keep that downward trend going.

 

[allvol123]

The unemployment portion of it was. If you lost your job, you get more unemployment than you used to. In some cases, you get more in unemployment (for a period of time) than you did working. That can't be good when this is over and business look to re-hire - people aren't going to go to work and take a corresponding pay cut.

As others have said, the checks for everyone making less than $200k (filing jointly) is to encourage consumerism and get people spending money at the businesses that have been impacted.

Because wealthy people who get the checks are likely to save them, not spend it at Wal-Mart.

The you're still working, here is a check....is DAF

 

[Rocky_Top_Vol13]

This was posted in another thread. So maybe some of the deaths attributed to COVID19 would have occurred anyway with Pneumonia anyway?...

 

[05_never_again]

The you're still working, here is a check....is DAF

Didn't say it wasn't - you asked why they did it that way and I answered your question.

 

[BeecherVol]

He's not a doctor so of course someone told him.

To hear some tell it he googled "malaria drug" on the way to a presser and said "hey, let's try this".


The dance on this changes everyday. Hes at fault for some idiot drinking fish tank cleaner. Now hes just promoting the drug because he was informed some Drs were already effectively using it so obviously he deserves no credit.

 

[BeecherVol]

Wouldn't any president in this situation, unless they were a medical doctor themselves, be doing that exact same thing? Repeating what technical experts in this field are telling him?

It's a simple answer.

 

[rjd970]

This was posted in another thread. So maybe some of the deaths attributed to COVID19 would have occurred anyway with Pneumonia anyway?...

In other news water is wet. Panic pushers will ignore this and I doubt we will see it on the news. The daily death count and POTUS imaginary hydoxy scandals are all that matters.

 

[05_never_again]

To hear some tell it he googled "malaria drug" on the way to a presser and said "hey, let's try this".


The dance on this changes everyday. Hes at fault for some idiot drinking fish tank cleaner. Now hes just promoting the drug because he was informed some Drs were already effectively using it so obviously he deserves no credit.

Remember how people have said "Trump could come up with a cure for cancer and some people would still criticize him for it?"

If this hydroxychloroquine actually does help treat the virus, that quote won't really be an exaggeration or hyperbole anymore. The "I won't support anything he does" meme surpasses anything I've seen with any other politician...way more than liberals did with Dubya and even more than conservatives did with Obama.

 

[lawgator1]

Remember how people have said "Trump could come up with a cure for cancer and some people would still criticize him for it?"

If this hydroxychloroquine actually does help treat the virus, that quote won't really be an exaggeration or hyperbole anymore. The "I won't support anything he does" meme surpasses anything I've seen with any other politician...way more than liberals did with Dubya and even more than conservatives did with Obama.

This confuses the issue. It has nothing to do with whether the drug works or not. In fact, we all hope it does work. Rather, the criticism is of his placing his own wish that it work above the scientific approach to testing it.

But we get it. If it works, Trumps and his slurpers will proclaim his genius from every street corner and rooftop. If the science says it doesn't work, then there will be a mix of 1) the scientists are just saying that because they hate Trump; and, 2) that's okay he said it might not work, anyway.

These are the basic refrains of the entire Trump administration.

 

[allvol123]

Didn't say it wasn't - you asked why they did it that way and I answered your question.

Yes, asked as in....why is govt DAF.

 

[allvol123]

This was posted in another thread. So maybe some of the deaths attributed to COVID19 would have occurred anyway with Pneumonia anyway?...

Dang. Insane.

 

[Smokey'sHandler]

Drama wants their queen back.

So for every patient that survives due to being administered Cloroquine can they sue said democrats for trying to block the usage of the drug?

I think it would have pretty reasonable legs since without the drug they would be dead and if said democrats had their way they wouldn't be able to get it.

 

[0nelilreb]

Going to be an ugly day on deaths. NY and GA and a couple others have posted large numbers already. We knew it was coming but still hate to see it.

A bright spot .. two of NGVs Covid positive patients are doing better today one is out from under some very heavy meds and is responding to commands . It’s really amazing . I don’t think he was given much of a chance .