My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
4/1 = 26,473 (26,550 Predicted)
4/2 = 29,874 (30,330)
4/3 = 32,284 (32,540)
4/4 = 34,196 (36,190)
4/5 = 25,316 (38,270)
Median Predicted New Case Numbers Next 5 Days - Rate of increase continues to slow
4/6 40,820
4/7 44,150
4/8 46,790
4/9 49,360
4/10 51,560
Current Predicted peak Daily New Cases
4/14 56,120 Top of the curve is very flat now, so the highest number of daily cases could be any time between 4/11 and 4/18.
Yesterday's number is probably the reporting lag and variation in testing we have been seeing. However, California did work through a backlog of tests earlier in the week which may have skewed the data in another direction.
Therefore, the next few days will be very interesting. Maybe we hit the peak sooner rather than later, and at a lower number.
What I am expecting is a bumpy plateau in the data when we are at the peak rather that a smooth curve. If we plateau around 45,000 instead of the 65,000 we've been headed to, that would be great.
Our testing problem was largely at the beginning, and that is the main thing we will need to fix if a pandemic occurs again.
To put it in perspective, Singapore has tested 6.8 out of every 1,000 citizens, and they have been largely praised for their testing because they did it on the front end.
The USA will surpass that, and we have tested 5.4 out of every 1,000 citizens to date, but testing after the virus has a foothold is less useful than early and aggressive testing.