Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#121,901
#121,901
vol72 said:
Edit: And...the highest percentage of getting it in Shelby County is the 21-30 age range. Now, Shelby County has only had 7 deaths out of almost 700 confirmed cases. But it’s not effecting just the elderly.

So, how many of the 7 deaths are ages 21-30? Were there contributing factors? Sure, all human beings are at risk for getting the Covid-19 virus, but how many are seriously affected by this virus alone and not by other issues? 700 Covid-19 cases confirmed with a total of 7 deaths in a population of approximately 1 million people is a small percentage. I am not debating that reasonable precautions need be taken. My only question: is the cure worse than the virus?
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It absolutely amazes me how these simple truths are not evident to everybody. I guess it really is rocket surgery..I mean I am not that smart, and these things are abundantly obvious to me by now..


Maybe it is just number fatigue..so much gets thrown out there.
 
#121,903
#121,903
chargervol said:
Yeah, our opinions really aren't that far off.
I definitely included "known" for that reason, have zero interest in sensationalizing. But it's still an uncomfortable on my end . Folks that avoided smoking, vaping, put in extra time and money for cleaner air filters and so on. Then being rewarded with lung damage to varying degrees of those less responsible. Pretty crappy deal but.. some is inevitable :/

I've accepted dragging it out *to an extent*. Just long enough to catch up on needed supplies. You're right, there has to be a limit on the time of these restrictions. We just need to use that time wisely on preparedness.
We got punched in the mouth and weren't ready for it, at all.
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I already have pretty bad lung damage in a little over 20 percent of my left lung, and about 5 percent of my right, but other than this virus scare it is mostly just I get a little shorter of breath since it happened.

If you have ever had severe bronchitis or pneumonia you have it too. It leaves scarring.
 
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#121,905
#121,905
Ulysees E. McGill said:
It absolutely amazes me how these simple truths are not evident to everybody. I guess it really is rocket surgery..I mean I am not that smart, and these things are abundantly obvious to me by now..


Maybe it is just number fatigue..so much gets thrown out there.
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I don’t get why people think these numbers are static. No social distancing = many, many more cases. Exponential increase.
 
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#121,906
#121,906
Ulysees E. McGill said:
It absolutely amazes me how these simple truths are not evident to everybody. I guess it really is rocket surgery..I mean I am not that smart, and these things are abundantly obvious to me by now..


Maybe it is just number fatigue..so much gets thrown out there.
Click to expand...

Here's a fun monkey to throw into your wrench: deaths can't really be counted until all cases reach a conclusion. In other words, some of the active cases will result in deaths, and those can't be counted until they happen. It's definitely a gray area to use mortality rates against active case counts.

Some good news is that TN is actually among the best mortality rates in the country as of a couple of days ago (I haven't run the numbers since then). So, when you use TN numbers, you're actually using a better mortality rate (also note: this is using active case counts).
 
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#121,912
#121,912
Kristy* said:
Where do you live? Our Kroger in west Knoxville has pretty much been back to normal for a couple of weeks.
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I live outside Atlanta and had the same experience. Three stores - no TP or paper towels. I think WIC/food stamps are distributed at the beginning of the month, so there may be a higher number of folks at the grocery this weekend.
 
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#121,913
#121,913
vol72 said:
Edit: And...the highest percentage of getting it in Shelby County is the 21-30 age range. Now, Shelby County has only had 7 deaths out of almost 700 confirmed cases. But it’s not effecting just the elderly.

So, how many of the 7 deaths are ages 21-30? Were there contributing factors? Sure, all human beings are at risk for getting the Covid-19 virus, but how many are seriously affected by this virus alone and not by other issues? 700 Covid-19 cases confirmed with a total of 7 deaths in a population of approximately 1 million people is a small percentage. I am not debating that reasonable precautions need be taken. My only question: is the cure worse than the virus?
Click to expand...
It absolutely is
 
#121,916
#121,916
SSVol said:
Offered without comment.

"Case-fatality rates around the world are notoriously tricky because they are based in part on the extent of testing, but a recent study of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, found a case-fatality rate of 0.5 percent among adults from the ages of 30 to 59. The current estimate of fatality rates in the same age range in Louisiana is about four times that."

The Coronavirus’s Unique Threat to the South
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What if both are true that the Chinese gov't skewed the data on the number of infected and the number of deaths and that the US is full of fat, unhealthy slobs which will make the numbers seem worse because of their underlying health conditions in specific age ranges?

Guys it really can be both bad and not as bad as they are making it out to be. Both extreme sides of the argument, saying that this is one of the worst pandemics we've seen and it isn't that bad, are both wrong. The truth is it's somewhere in the middle.
 
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#121,918
#121,918
WriterVol said:
Here's a fun monkey to throw into your wrench: deaths can't really be counted until all cases reach a conclusion. In other words, some of the active cases will result in deaths, and those can't be counted until they happen. It's definitely a gray area to use mortality rates against active case counts.

Some good news is that TN is actually among the best mortality rates in the country as of a couple of days ago (I haven't run the numbers since then). So, when you use TN numbers, you're actually using a better mortality rate (also note: this is using active case counts).
Click to expand...

I agree, final analysis can only be done when all outcomes are known but based on mortality of known cases I did this table 2 or 3 days ago.

ScreenHunter 337.png
 
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#121,921
#121,921
Ulysees E. McGill said:
And those asymptomatic walk around at the same grocery and supply stores as you do...and will never know that they spread it.

If there are 150+ thousand "confirmed" cases fight now...I freaking guarantee you that there 300,000 to a 1 mil real cases at least.
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Definitely agree with the last part of this post. There are easily double the numbers reported. Family members of confirmed cases aren’t even being tested if they present symptoms, therefore aren’t included in the numbers. Considering the average family size in the US and the spread rate of the virus that’s probably at least 1 person with symptoms that isn’t in the numbers. This excludes those who aren’t in the same household and came into contact.
 
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#121,925
#121,925
jackcrevol said:
so you believe that this is inaccurate bc of lack of testing?
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depends on how you define that, exactly....but, i'd say not exclusively. in part, yeah, it has to be because not everyone that may need or have requested a test, has gotten one. but there's another unknown that affects this as well, that being those that whether symptomatic or not, have yet to even seek out a test....and may never if they don't develop symptoms that warrant immediate medical attention....
 
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