Coronavirus (No politics)

#2,729
#2,729
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Not sure if you work at UT but my boss said his niece works there and she says they aren't seeing anything. I didn't buy it personally.
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One of our good friends is an ER nurse here, she stopped by to say hello on Monday.

They've had 30 or so cases pass through the hospital but only one or two that required ICU care. ~200k metro area. I'm guessing it's because the people here think this town's the only place on earth that actually exists so they never go anywhere.

Meanwhile I'm here playing the allergies or corona game šŸ˜†
 
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#2,730
#2,730
I'm off tomorrow but everything is shut down my options are
1) Stay up late binge watching and eating
2) Get up super early take back roads avoiding the coronavirus and the authorities to a barrier island to look for shells and driftwood (pretty sure they can't lock down every road)
download (5).jpeg
 
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#2,731
#2,731
VolGee4 said:
You think all lawsuits have a legitimate claim? Free to still bring it. Guess what I do.

Maybe someone hasnā€™t been out of their house for 2 weeks, has had groceries delivered, and played tennis one time, and contracted it.

Plus, these restrictives are designed to prevent people from congregating as opposed to encouraging it.

It doesnā€™t matter. I could give you guys a legitimate reason, and the same posters would complain about it.
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So basically no liability. Thanks.
 
#2,732
#2,732
ButchPlz said:
One of our good friends is an ER nurse here, she stopped by to say hello on Monday.

They've had 30 or so cases pass through the hospital but only one or two that required ICU care. ~200k metro area. I'm guessing it's because the people here think this town's the only place on earth that actually exists so they never go anywhere.

Meanwhile I'm here playing the allergies or corona game šŸ˜†
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My allergies are always bad, but I'm scared to death to sneeze in public right nowšŸ˜„
 
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#2,738
#2,738
VolGee4 said:
Guess you donā€™t know what it takes to defend it. Costs money. Itā€™s a simple cost/benefit analysis.

But thatā€™s cool. Think what you want.
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So being liable has nothing to do with this conversation. You're saying anyone can bring a frivolous lawsuit and it takes money to defend, then people settle out of court. Everyone knows this scam. Again, not news.
 
#2,740
#2,740
I have to ask - when they forecast this peaking in places like TN in mid-April - are they assuming incredibly, incredibly aggressive social distancing , warm weather shuts it down (itā€™s not going to be warmer in TN anytime this month than it is in Florida now), huge huge numbers of asymptomatic (way more than 2:1) people already infected, or what? Otherwise I canā€™t see a peak that soon. Anyone seen details on why?
 
#2,741
#2,741
ButchPlz said:
This all comes back to our greenway here being closed, despite there not being anything to touch on it.

Local governments are run by morons, a lot of the time.
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The one here in Salem is still open thankfully. If they start seeing people not following guidelines they said they would shut it down then
 
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#2,742
#2,742
allvol123 said:
So being liable has nothing to do with this conversation. You're saying anyone can bring a frivolous lawsuit and it takes money to defend, then people settle out of court. Everyone knows this scam. Again, not news.
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I didnā€™t totally say itā€™s frivilous. There could be a million fact scenarios.

But I have no idea what it means that itā€™s ā€œnot news.ā€ These restrictives are trying to prevent people from being together and not encouraging it. Local governments donā€™t want to incentivize it and create a situation where something might happen. They control the situation.

Itā€™s a cost/benefit of closing down a tennis court/playground for 30-60 days versus someone possibly contracting the virus by being on that property.

Target or WalMart hopefully donā€™t just leave a spill on the floor. Something could happen. Percentages say nothing will happen, and someone could file a frivolous suit and claim they were injured. But the cost/benefit says letā€™s clean it up and not create that scenario.

Whether a lawsuit ends up being frivolous or not, there are always costs involved, and with a government entity, itā€™s taxpayer money.

I will leave it at that and continue enjoying my runs in my neighborhood.
 
#2,743
#2,743
VolunteerHillbilly said:
Thanks for being there. I've been to Kroger the past two Tuesdays. Very little communication. Quiet in the stores. Observed no misbehavior. Lots of extra employees in the store doing the ClicknPick shopping or stocking shelves. Actually saw a lady emptying a rack of nailpolishes and sanitizing the rack and each bottle by hand. Stores seem to be really staffed up for this.
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Thank you sir. Yeah I know we are doing a ton of hiring to keep up with everything as well not to mention the extra cleaning we have to do now. Wife is freaked out thinking I am going to get the virus. She already preparing my quarantine space
 
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#2,745
#2,745
Ive mentioned my wife works at a hospital. She has direct contact with patients. As it stands right now, the Drs are reluctant to test patients for COVID despite showing symptoms. Considering how many times she has worked with a patient only to find out the next day they have flu, TB, or whatever other infectious disease, she is extremely concerned about unknowingly contracting COVID and bringing it home to me and the kids.

After much discussion and different ideas about isolating my wife from the family once the COVID patients start arriving on her floor, we are going to borrow an RV from her sisterā€™s in-laws. She will live in it for the next several weeks.
 
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#2,746
#2,746
I work in a hospital (maintenance) and we currently have 12 cases present and today I spent several hours changing a exhaust fan for the ICU. Tell me I wasnā€™t exposed šŸ˜­ itā€™s a lot worst than most think, seeing it firsthand. The randomness of the disease is whatā€™s so dangerous though. Some people show little to no symptoms and some end up on a ventilator. Very random and VERY contagious. Take your vitamins people! Your immune system is a glorious thing. For anyone with auto immune disorders, please follow recommendations and stay inside.
 
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#2,747
#2,747
burntorangeVOLffle said:
Ive mentioned my wife works at a hospital. She has direct contact with patients. As it stands right now, the Drs are reluctant to test patients for COVID despite showing symptoms. Considering how many times she has worked with a patient only to find out the next day they have flu, TB, or whatever other infectious disease, she is extremely concerned about unknowingly contracting COVID and bringing it home to me and the kids.

After much discussion and different ideas about isolating my wife from the family once the COVID patients start arriving on her floor, we are going to borrow an RV from her sisterā€™s in-laws. She will live in it for the next several weeks.
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I am very confused. I get it if someone is symptomatic at home but not needing hospitalization, then donā€™t come for a test.

But a patient in the hospital, showing flu-like symptoms and they donā€™t want to test for the virus? Someone please explain this to me.
 
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#2,748
#2,748
TennTradition said:
I am very confused. I get it if someone is symptomatic at home but not needing hospitalization, then donā€™t come for a test.

But a patient in the hospital, showing flu-like symptoms and they donā€™t want to test for the virus? Someone please explain this to me.
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Hospital staff would like the explanation too.
 
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#2,749
#2,749
The IHME study shows a peak date in 13 days on 4/15 On that date they show a need for 262k beds. Right now we have 32k hospitalized and 245k cases. So if we do the math 32k/245k=262k/X or 2 millions cases. We would need to average 132.5k new cases each day. Today we had 29k new cases. 20200402_234349.jpg20200402_234326.jpg
 
#2,750
#2,750
VolnJC said:
The IHME study shows a peak date in 13 days on 4/15 On that date they show a need for 262k beds. Right now we have 32k hospitalized and 245k cases. So if we do the math 32k/245k=262k/X or 2 millions cases. We would need to average 132.5k new cases each day. Today we had 29k new cases. View attachment 269754View attachment 269755
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If you look at their model it seems they think 100k are already hospitalized? They donā€™t have an error cone around today and it reads about 100k.

Ignoring that.....It takes about week between getting sick and hospitalization on average. And hospitalization can last weeks. So old cases donā€™t leave very quickly and new cases are a little delayed in getting there. If testing takes 3 days then todayā€™s hospitalizations reflect the rate at the cases we had 4 days ago. That was about 164k. So the rate would be 32649/164000 = 20%. Thatā€™s a touch high I bet but we can go with it. That would mean 1.3MM cases. If we continue doubling every 4.5 days like we are right now then a peak 14 days from now is just over 3 doublings. One gets us to 520k. Second gets us to 1 MM. third gets us to 2 MM.

In reality we probably continue slowing down. As we approach peak. For the last 7 days weā€™ve been at double every 4.5 days. The week before that was closer to every 3 days. So letā€™s say the next 7 days average 4.5*1.5 = 6.75 and the next week 10.125. In this case we would only get in about 1.75 doublings, or a growth of 3.5x. That puts at just under 1 MM.

So a fair range if we do peak in the middle of the month would be 1-2 MM cases and leads me to think their hospital bed numbers, given when they peak, maybe donā€™t seem so far off.

I actually peak after their estimates and canā€™t figute out what it is about the months that get peaking in two weeks. I keep going.
 
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