Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#28,326
#28,326
Rifleman said:
Finding an effective treatment to get people out of the ICU, and into a place where their symptoms are home-manageable, is the fastest way out the other side of this.

Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
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Yup it’s not just about vents . There are only so many negative pressure rooms , after that it’s all about procedures being / not being followed , and close contact with others . There are going to be some hospitals that do well managing , some that will just hold steady , and some will fail . Just like with anything , this is putting pressure on everybody’s procedures and it’s going to expose the weak links .
 
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#28,330
#28,330
Rifleman said:
My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/20 = 5,594
3/25 = 13,335
3/30 = 20,353 (25,000 median predicted)
3/31 = 24,742 (24,350 median)
4/1 = 26,473 (26,550 median)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 966,939 Cases and 49,295 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Median Predicted New Case Numbers Next 5 Days
4/2 30,334
4/3 33,030
4/4 37,310
4/5 41,860 - slight increase from 40,430 yesterday
4/6 45,420

Why I'm tracking this: if we get 1,000 more cases today than yesterday, no one is going to come on TV and tell you that is good news statistically. They will say that is a big number and worse than yesterday. However, that would be a good sign that the transmission rate continues to fall.

Even if the numbers increase 1,000 a day and we are at 31,000 cases on 4/6, the reporting won't change, but that will mean transmission rates are dropping and every fraction knocked off that rate buys time and saves human lives.

My model is very close to the actual next day numbers now so I won't generate ranges. This is for several reasons:

1) I noticed a pattern in the way tests get reported, which makes the three days in the middle of the week have larger numbers and the other days smaller.
2) The model has a lot of data to draw on.
3) The transmission rate is still falling, but the fall in rate is steady not accelerating as fast as it was earlier.
4) All models get to high margins of error for any distant prediction, so the variance from the number 5 days out tells more than the variance from tomorrow's number. That is why, if you think your Governor's closing things in May and June isn't data-driven decision making, you are correct. That is driven by politics and logistics. It may prove to be the correct decision, but is has no more certainty than a bet we might make on the November election.

Testing data resource: The COVID Tracking Project

212k positive tests out of 1.17 million tested.
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Media loves sensationalism. I think we can all agree on that.

My concern, the increase in testing will naturally mean an increase in positives. And, it will all hit as we see an increase in deaths because of the numbers who contracted the virus 10+/- days ago. It will absolutely scare the crap out of people.
 
#28,332
#28,332
This explains so much.

"Kushner’s team has stepped in to coordinate decision-making at agencies including the FDA and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the scope of his authority now exceeds that of Health Secretary Alex Azar."
 
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#28,334
#28,334
allvol123 said:
I think NY first data dump was 222 yesterday. It is 154 today. Hoping the late afternoon dump is lower also.
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Yesterday's afternoon numbers shook you a little bit. I hope today's afternoon is better, too.
 
#28,335
#28,335
Italy 760 today, 727 yesterday. But this will make 6 days in a row with a lower number than their peak.

Now 12 days in a row with new cases below peak.
 
#28,336
#28,336
Purple Tiger said:
Probably because he's from an obscure jackleg research group based in Jersey.
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Even if certain drugs prove effective, they may not be for everyone. We'll need multiple solutions based on the health of the patient in question. It will also be important to get a biomarker test for the 20% of people this thing rolls over like a Mack truck. You don't won't to waste a pharmaceutical the whole planet will need to stop Wendy from getting a low grade fever and feeling a little icky.

F1.large.jpg
 
#28,337
#28,337
McDad said:
Media loves sensationalism. I think we can all agree on that.

My concern, the increase in testing will naturally mean an increase in positives. And, it will all hit as we see an increase in deaths because of the numbers who contracted the virus 10+/- days ago. It will absolutely scare the crap out of people.
Click to expand...
We had our first virus related death here in our little town. Also, a hospital doctor here is hospitalized with the virus.
 
#28,338
#28,338
McDad said:
Yesterday's afternoon numbers shook you a little bit. I hope today's afternoon is better, too.
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It's like you can see into my soul. They had some reporting problems a few days earlier and yesterday was the first time I realized they do 2 reports per day.
 
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#28,339
#28,339
Got a call from a buddy wanting help getting his boat out of the water. The marina called him today and said they expect Lee to close all of the marinas in the state tomorrow and he won't be able to get to his boat. If true this is nothing more than a putative move that will backfire.
 
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#28,341
#28,341
carlos86 said:
This explains so much.

"Kushner’s team has stepped in to coordinate decision-making at agencies including the FDA and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the scope of his authority now exceeds that of Health Secretary Alex Azar."
Click to expand...


Jared continues to be everywhere doing nothing.
 
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#28,342
#28,342
hog88 said:
Got a call from a buddy wanting help getting his boat out of the water. The marina called him today and said they expect Lee to close all of the marinas in the state tomorrow and he won't be able to get to his boat. If true this is nothing more than a putative move that will backfire.
Click to expand...

The power becomes like a drug. They cant stop themselves.
 
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#28,343
#28,343
allvol123 said:
It's like you can see into my soul. They had some reporting problems a few days earlier and yesterday was the first time I realized they do 2 reports per day.
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Stay strong. You're setting a good example of optimism. Others are watching.
 
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#28,344
#28,344
McDad said:
Media loves sensationalism. I think we can all agree on that.

My concern, the increase in testing will naturally mean an increase in positives. And, it will all hit as we see an increase in deaths because of the numbers who contracted the virus 10+/- days ago. It will absolutely scare the crap out of people.
Click to expand...

There should be a built in + or - margin of error on these numbers like they do with polls . There are so much questionable data out there and so much that’s not out yet that any reported numbers , either way , should be taken with a grain of salt . Maybe just as an indicator up or down arrow .
 
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#28,346
#28,346
carlos86 said:
This explains so much.

"Kushner’s team has stepped in to coordinate decision-making at agencies including the FDA and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the scope of his authority now exceeds that of Health Secretary Alex Azar."
Click to expand...


Explains what?
 
#28,349
#28,349
Calling it now. We'll get reports of the ultra wealthy having bought their own ventilators and showing up to the hospital with them.
 
#28,350
#28,350
hog88 said:
Half the US population hates Trump and thinks everything coming out of his mouth is a lie, what makes you think they would listen now?
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I do not view view everything he says as being equally horrible and dishonest.
His statements have run the gambit from that's idiotic and an outright lie, to that sort of makes sense and is true and almost presidential sounding.
The higher the percentage of statements he makes that fall in the 2nd category, the more believable in general he becomes.
Unfortunatel,y to date, the vast majority of his statements fall in the first category.
 
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