Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#28,302
#28,302
carlos86 said:

Earlier Trump on Twitter stated he talked “with his friend the Crown Prince,” who previously “spoke with Putin.”

“No, there was no conversation,” Peskov said.

Peskov also emphasized that there are no plans to conduct such negotiations yet.
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Gas prices will rocket after this. US production falling off a cliff will run smack into savage demand when stay at home orders are lifted.
 
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#28,306
#28,306
Stew Cook said:
Personally, I blame him more, because he is the one the the Fab Neilson ratings, and reaches the mostest people. Oh, and "#1 on Facebook" woot woot!
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I'm not saying he's done a good job. Just pointing out that several big democrats played this as nothing at first also.
 
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#28,308
#28,308
Fauci needs security due to death threats. Trump lies about it. I'm shocked.

Dr. Anthony Fauci forced to beef up security as death threats increase - CNNPolitics

During the White House coronavirus task force briefing with reporters on Wednesday, Fauci was asked whether he or White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx, who also serves on the task force, had received threats of any kind or whether they had been assigned a security detail. He said he was not able to answer.
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"Anything that has to do with security detail I would have to have you (ask your question) to the inspector general of HHS," he said, referencing the Department of Health and Human Services.
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Fauci's response was quickly interrupted by Trump, who stepped up to the podium to say the nation's most visible infectious disease expert doesn't require protection. "(He) doesn't need security, everybody loves them," said Trump. "Besides that, they'd be in big trouble if they ever attacked."
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#28,310
#28,310
Stew Cook said:
Well.. one of the bright sides of this virus was lower gas prices. Somehow Trump is working to take that from us. #trumpf'dmetoo

Trump Says Saudis, Russia Will Cut Production After MBS Call
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Taking what from "us", defending U.S. producers against what is essentially a Russian oil-dumping attack?
OPEC states - and other global producers - are also hurt by this and have been trying to negotiate Russian cut in production.

This is like the country selling out for a cheap head of lettuce while ignoring the larger cost of doing so. Short-term American mentality.
 
#28,314
#28,314
My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/20 = 5,594
3/25 = 13,335
3/30 = 20,353 (25,000 median predicted)
3/31 = 24,742 (24,350 median)
4/1 = 26,473 (26,550 median)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 966,939 Cases and 49,295 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Median Predicted New Case Numbers Next 5 Days
4/2 30,334
4/3 33,030
4/4 37,310
4/5 41,860 - slight increase from 40,430 yesterday
4/6 45,420

Why I'm tracking this: if we get 1,000 more cases today than yesterday, no one is going to come on TV and tell you that is good news statistically. They will say that is a big number and worse than yesterday. However, that would be a good sign that the transmission rate continues to fall.

Even if the numbers increase 1,000 a day and we are at 31,000 cases on 4/6, the reporting won't change, but that will mean transmission rates are dropping and every fraction knocked off that rate buys time and saves human lives.

My model is very close to the actual next day numbers now so I won't generate ranges. This is for several reasons:

1) I noticed a pattern in the way tests get reported, which makes the three days in the middle of the week have larger numbers and the other days smaller.
2) The model has a lot of data to draw on.
3) The transmission rate is still falling, but the fall in rate is steady not accelerating as fast as it was earlier.
4) All models get to high margins of error for any distant prediction, so the variance from the number 5 days out tells more than the variance from tomorrow's number. That is why, if you think your Governor's closing things in May and June isn't data-driven decision making, you are correct. That is driven by politics and logistics. It may prove to be the correct decision, but is has no more certainty than a bet we might make on the November election.

Testing data resource: The COVID Tracking Project

212k positive tests out of 1.17 million tested.
 
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#28,315
#28,315
NCFisher said:
Taking what from "us", defending U.S. producers against what is essentially a Russian oil-dumping attack?
OPEC states - and other global producers - are also hurt by this and have been trying to negotiate Russian cut in production.

This is like the country selling out for a cheap head of lettuce while ignoring the larger cost of doing so. Short-term American mentality.
Click to expand...

Looks like more a stunt by Trump to appear to have our "best interests" in mind. But yeah, I get your point.

Maybe he'll open the border when farmers can't get their food to America's table too. It sort of works both ways, in that example. Unless he wants to attack minimum wage head on.
 
#28,319
#28,319
DancingOutlaw said:
Gas prices will rocket after this. US production falling off a cliff will run smack into savage demand when stay at home orders are lifted.
Click to expand...

Yup it’s just a big guessing game and the ones that guess right , will make a fortune .
 
#28,323
#28,323
Rifleman said:
My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/20 = 5,594
3/25 = 13,335
3/30 = 20,353 (25,000 median predicted)
3/31 = 24,742 (24,350 median)
4/1 = 26,473 (26,550 median)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 966,939 Cases and 49,295 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Median Predicted New Case Numbers Next 5 Days
4/2 30,334
4/3 33,030
4/4 37,310
4/5 41,860 - slight increase from 40,430 yesterday
4/6 45,420

Why I'm tracking this: if we get 1,000 more cases today than yesterday, no one is going to come on TV and tell you that is good news statistically. They will say that is a big number and worse than yesterday. However, that would be a good sign that the transmission rate continues to fall.

Even if the numbers increase 1,000 a day and we are at 31,000 cases on 4/6, the reporting won't change, but that will mean transmission rates are dropping and every fraction knocked off that rate buys time and saves human lives.

My model is very close to the actual next day numbers now so I won't generate ranges. This is for several reasons:

1) I noticed a pattern in the way tests get reported, which makes the three days in the middle of the week have larger numbers and the other days smaller.
2) The model has a lot of data to draw on.
3) The transmission rate is still falling, but the fall in rate is steady not accelerating as fast as it was earlier.
4) All models get to high margins of error for any distant prediction, so the variance from the number 5 days out tells more that the variance from tomorrow's number. That is why, if you think your Governor's closing things in May and June isn't data driven decision making, you are correct. That is driven by politics and logistics. It may prove to be the correct decision, but is has no more certainty than a bet we might make on the November election.

Testing data resource: The COVID Tracking Project

212k positive tests out of 1.17 million tested.
Click to expand...
The roll out of the quicker testing might increase your numbers.
 
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