Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

[all_volz]

Hey everybody I’m here to ask for a prayer or thought or whatever you can muster at this point. My wife’s grandfather had a fall a couple nights ago. He broke four ribs, and punctured a lung. To make matters worse, he has been struggling with COPD for some time now. All that combined with what appears to be an extended stay in the hospital, things could be better. We are praying for a Passover of sorts. Thanks in advance friends.

Prayers sent

 

[WriterVol]

This is a link to a video of a medical doctor in Germany that will give some of you a different perspective on the current crisis.

video link

the video is in German but you can activate the English subtitles.

This video is two weeks old. He mentions a "worst case" scenario of 30 deaths per day in Germany. Germany does have one of the best mortality rates of any country with a large number of infections. Even at that, they recorded 931 deaths yesterday, and it's been increasing daily. 775 the day before, 645 the day before that, etc. See the growth?

In a video posted a week later, he claims the deaths are coincident (occur because the patient has some other ailment), and that may be true, but they are also coincident with things that don't normally kill you. I'm failing to find the credibility with this one.

 

[Jack Burton]

Here’s a Dr. at Weill Cornell in NYC dealing with COVID patients directly in one of the worst areas. In the vid he offers advice on what to do to protect yourself and family based on what he’s seen first hand. It’s not fear inducing he actually makes it comforting because he’s trying to offer practical advice and cut through all the politics and economics talk. Definitely worth viewing or listening to in the background.

Empowering and Protecting Your Family During COVID-19 with Dr. Dave Price

 

[WriterVol]

Great read

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll How deadly is the coronavirus?

They admit their numbers are speculative, and can't be known or at least guessed at until after the virus runs its course.

Interesting that they don't, however, talk about the overrun on hospital capacity this virus causes in areas where mitigation measures aren't taken more quickly. That's a pretty big piece of the puzzle they are leaving out, and it's one of the biggest reasons for the mitigation efforts.

We don't have the capacity to cope with a full-on infection spread. Why don't people get this?

 

[nicksjuzunk]

I wonder if the mortality rate for the elderly will fall steeply for months after the pandemic.

 

[nicksjuzunk]

Here’s a Dr. at Weill Cornell in NYC dealing with COVID patients directly in one of the worst areas. In the vid he offers advice on what to do to protect yourself and family based on what he’s seen first hand. It’s not fear inducing he actually makes it comforting because he’s trying to offer practical advice and cut through all the politics and economics talk. Definitely worth viewing or listening to in the background.

Empowering and Protecting Your Family During COVID-19 with Dr. Dave Price

I read the entire video and he did provide one single Mapquest for getting to spring break

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

crazy very small compared to what a lot of people throw out there

Crazy that it said right up top.."Assuming social distancing is kept in place"

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

They admit their numbers are speculative, and can't be known or at least guessed at until after the virus runs its course.

Interesting that they don't, however, talk about the overrun on hospital capacity this virus causes in areas where mitigation measures aren't taken more quickly. That's a pretty big piece of the puzzle they are leaving out, and it's one of the biggest reasons for the mitigation efforts.

We don't have the capacity to cope with a full-on infection spread. Why don't people get this?

I agree..to a degree, but this part is also true, and it doesn't seem to faze the more overzealous types..

What about the impact of the lockdown?
The lockdown, itself, however could cost lives.
Prof Robert Dinwall, from Nottingham Trent University, says "the collateral damage to society and the economy" could include:

• mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
• heart problems from lack of activity
• the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards

Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening.
Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.
And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash.
It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors from declining living standards to poorer health care.

 

[WriterVol]

Here’s a Dr. at Weill Cornell in NYC dealing with COVID patients directly in one of the worst areas. In the vid he offers advice on what to do to protect yourself and family based on what he’s seen first hand. It’s not fear inducing he actually makes it comforting because he’s trying to offer practical advice and cut through all the politics and economics talk. Definitely worth viewing or listening to in the background.

Empowering and Protecting Your Family During COVID-19 with Dr. Dave Price

Thanks for posting

I'm about 18 minutes in. I'll have to finish it later, but so far it's very sensible, practical advice. No fear mongering or reckless downplaying. Just solid advice.

I know someone posted this before, but this is the kind of stuff that actually helps. The forecasting and prognosticating doesn't do much to change actual outcomes. This type of content can.

 

[Kristy*]

Here’s a Dr. at Weill Cornell in NYC dealing with COVID patients directly in one of the worst areas. In the vid he offers advice on what to do to protect yourself and family based on what he’s seen first hand. It’s not fear inducing he actually makes it comforting because he’s trying to offer practical advice and cut through all the politics and economics talk. Definitely worth viewing or listening to in the background.

Empowering and Protecting Your Family During COVID-19 with Dr. Dave Price

Makes no sense that it's more dangerous to touch an infected person and touch your face than to be near an infected person and breath in their germs expelled either by sneeze or cough. And if breathing in the particles isn't a concern, then why the 6' rule at all?

 

[WriterVol]

I agree..to a degree, but this part is also true, and it doesn't seem to faze the more overzealous types..

What about the impact of the lockdown?
The lockdown, itself, however could cost lives.
Prof Robert Dinwall, from Nottingham Trent University, says "the collateral damage to society and the economy" could include:

• mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
• heart problems from lack of activity
• the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards

Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening.
Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.
And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash.
It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors from declining living standards to poorer health care.

It may seem like I downplay this, but I don't. Policy makers are going to have a hard time navigating this thing until we get a solid treatment/vaccine. Economic impact has health implications. There's no doubt about it.

I still say the best course--right now--is to get those numbers down as low as possible. Hopefully at that point, we can fight this thing in a more open capacity.

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

I wonder if the mortality rate for the elderly will fall steeply for months after the pandemic.

That seems logical..but so many are being zealously sequestered in nursing homes that the virus will not have the natural effect diseases usually have in nature of "thinning the herd"...at least among elderly living in nursing homes.

The greatest at risk right now are those 50-ancient that have the normal deterioration of health associated with growing older, yet are not so bad to require assisted living.

Those are the ones I fear for...like my Dad, and Stepmom, Father in Law and Mother in Law.

 

[WriterVol]

Makes no sense that it's more dangerous to touch an infected person and touch your face than to be near an infected person and breath in their germs expelled either by sneeze or cough. And if breathing in the particles isn't a concern, then why the 6' rule at all?

He goes on to mention that not being right up against someone is important. He just says the hands to the face is the biggest factor.

I questioned it myself a little, too, but this guy should know waaaay more than me. Either way, he does say keeping distance is still important. It's his fourth piece of advice.

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

It may seem like I downplay this, but I don't. Policy makers are going to have a hard time navigating this thing until we get a solid treatment/vaccine. Economic impact has health implications. There's no doubt about it.

I still say the best course--right now--is to get those numbers down as low as possible. Hopefully at that point, we can fight this thing in a more open capacity.

No...you have not, but the more overzealous types do. It is like these deaths..that ARE definitely going to happen..do not matter. I saw a report from Knoxville that said 9 people committed suicide in Knox county (iirc) over a 48 hour period.

Forcing people even farther inward on themselves that were already battling depression and anxiety is a recipe for disaster also. Somebody high ip in the psychiatric comminity needs to get on this, or it will become really bad...especially if this crap goes on and on and on..

 

[Kristy*]

He goes on to mention that not being right up against someone is important. He just says the hands to the face is the biggest factor.

I questioned it myself a little, too, but this guy should know waaaay more than me. Either way, he does say keeping distance is still important. It's his fourth piece of advice.

I honestly think it's dangerous advice. I seriously doubt that all these health care workers that have caught this immediately touched their faces after touching sick patients. Most wash hands before and after treating patients. And studies have shown the virus can only live on your hands for approximately 10 mins. It's not like it seeps into your skin. It still has to be breathed in or possibly get in your eyes. And why is the CDC considering advising everyone to wear face masks in public? It has been shown to remain in aerosol form for much longer than it can remain on your skin.

Washing your hands is good. And not touching your face right now is fine advice. But people should still be cautious about breathing in the virus around sick people.

 

[franklinpence]

@Devo182 - I think it was you who mentioned that you were playing poker with your buddies through an online service. What was that?

 

[SSVol]

No...you have not, but the more overzealous types do. It is like these deaths..that ARE definitely going to happen..do not matter. I saw a report from Knoxville that said 9 people committed suicide in Knox county (iirc) over a 48 hour period.

Forcing people even farther inward on themselves that were already battling depression and anxiety is a recipe for disaster also. Somebody high ip in the psychiatric comminity needs to get on this, or it will become really bad...especially if this crap goes on and on and on..

It becomes about the lesser of evils. If COVID is allowed to run unchecked, it *will* kill a large number of otherwise healthy (physically and emotionally) people. That is not trivialize the issues of mental health, it's just math. Hospitals are already being overrun, and we've seen nothing of what this could be. Imagine if it were left to run unchecked. When hospitals get overrun, mortality due to all causes increases. The first world essentially becomes third world due to lack of available hospital beds. Things that would have otherwise been routine end up killing you.

For those who keep referencing the projections page, those "not so bad" projections are based on social distancing working. Don't skip over the note at the top of page.

 

[jakez4ut]

Great read

Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll How deadly is the coronavirus?

good stuff.

 

[WriterVol]

No...you have not, but the more overzealous types do. It is like these deaths..that ARE definitely going to happen..do not matter. I saw a report from Knoxville that said 9 people committed suicide in Knox county (iirc) over a 48 hour period.

Forcing people even farther inward on themselves that were already battling depression and anxiety is a recipe for disaster also. Somebody high ip in the psychiatric comminity needs to get on this, or it will become really bad...especially if this crap goes on and on and on..

Very true, McGill.

This is something I hope we all keep in mind. Reach out to friends and family a little more often right now if you can. Phone calls and e-mails can make a big difference. Sometimes you don't even know someone is hurting emotionally, and a random phone call can shake them out of it enough to keep them going.

We can't see each other as much, but we can still talk. We can still communicate. It can help.

 

[WriterVol]

It becomes about the lesser of evils. If COVID is allowed to run unchecked, it *will* kill a large number of otherwise healthy (physically and emotionally) people. That is not trivialize the issues of mental health, it's just math. Hospitals are already being overrun, and we've seen nothing of what this could be. Imagine if it were left to run unchecked. When hospitals get overrun, mortality due to all causes increases. The first world essentially becomes third world due to lack of available hospital beds. Things that would have otherwise been routine end up killing you.

For those who keep referencing the projections page, those "not so bad" projections are based on social distancing working. Don't skip over the note at the top of page.

View attachment 269586

I wondered about what they project for after August 1st. Their answer: it depends. Here's what they say in their FAQ:

Length of the epidemic

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.

 

[WriterVol]

I honestly think it's dangerous advice. I seriously doubt that all these health care workers that have caught this immediately touched their faces after touching sick patients. Most wash hands before and after treating patients. And studies have shown the virus can only live on your hands for approximately 10 mins. It's not like it seeps into your skin. It still has to be breathed in or possibly get in your eyes. And why is the CDC considering advising everyone to wear face masks in public? It has been shown to remain in aerosol form for much longer than it can remain on your skin.

Washing your hands is good. And not touching your face right now is fine advice. But people should still be cautious about breathing in the virus around sick people.

I haven't finished the video yet so I don't know if he addresses that. But do keep in mind this is advice for the general population in public. It's not advice for health care workers or even people caring for the sick at home. He even talks about some of the differences when he's in a room with a patient early in the video.

He mentions masks being a good reminder for people not to touch their faces when they are out. One thing I've seen about masks is that it may be better at keeping your droplets away from other people more so than their droplets away from you. In other words, it may be a good way to keep asymptomatic people from spreading their germs. The mask catches a good bit of what you breath and cough out.

He mentions prolonged contact a good bit. It's unclear how many virus particles you have to bring into your sinuses/airways to begin an infection. One, a million, a billion? I have no idea. It's probably one of those variable things.

 

[GiggerVol]

One group obviously doing very well during this crisis is the alcohol industry. Saw earlier that overall sales rose more than 55% for week ending 3/21. Tequila was up 75%. Beer up 43%, etc etc. After this is over, our medical folks will start talking about what to do with the alcoholism spike!

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

 

[OrangenSC]

The stuff we’ve been throwing out is what it *would* be if you weren’t stuck at home complaining about being stuck at home.

No, it's what it "could" possibly be. Them assumptions again.

 

[OrangenSC]

This will not get widely reported in our media. Bank on it. Not scary enough, at least the threat of the Covid-19 part isn't. The cost of our solution? That's another story they're not going to want to repeat. Well, unless they can use it to criticize officials.