Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

Pepe

Well-Known Member
Joined
Aug 1, 2018
Messages
3,877
Likes
4,666
P
One group obviously doing very well during this crisis is the alcohol industry. Saw earlier that overall sales rose more than 55% for week ending 3/21. Tequila was up 75%. Beer up 43%, etc etc. After this is over, our medical folks will start talking about what to do with the alcoholism spike!
I saw someone in Kroger yesterday buying up a large stock of Corona beer
 
Likes: jackcrevol

SSVol

Opinionated Old Guy
Joined
Nov 26, 2012
Messages
4,231
Likes
9,630
No, it's what it "could" possibly be. Them assumptions again.
We could be struck by a life ending meteor tomorrow at 9:13AM. Odds are we won't.

The "could" in the context of COVID is based on the science of epidemiology and what it means for the R0 to be what it appears to be. You can keep talking about assumptions all you want, and there are certainly plenty, but not every assumption is equally likely. The science of epidemiology says that unchecked, based on the apparent R0 of 1.5 to 2.5, between 33% and 71% of the population will need to be immune before this stops spreading. I'm not saying that, the science says that. But feel free to continue downplaying the importance of distancing...it only increases the likelihood that those assumptions end up correct.
 

crazyguy

resident beach bum
Joined
Dec 1, 2004
Messages
12,900
Likes
1,625
I’m still working. When our business (wedding photography) started failing I went and got a job at Whole Foods. We’re down about $10k a month in income with the Airbnb losses and business income losses. I meet with a realtor today to put our house on the market. I’m hoping to clear a good bit and possibly move back to tennessee with the family.
Looking for a job right now is not fun, I’ll tell you that. Even with 10 years of very successful business ownership and some success in the workforce- it doesn’t seem to fit into the common employment profile. Not a whole lot of fun.
 

jackcrevol

Well Known Member
Joined
Jan 23, 2005
Messages
13,308
Likes
14,753
I’m still working. When our business (wedding photography) started failing I went and got a job at Whole Foods. We’re down about $10k a month in income with the Airbnb losses and business income losses. I meet with a realtor today to put our house on the market. I’m hoping to clear a good bit and possibly move back to tennessee with the family.
Looking for a job right now is not fun, I’ll tell you that. Even with 10 years of very successful business ownership and some success in the workforce- it doesn’t seem to fit into the common employment profile. Not a whole lot of fun.
God speed Sir.
 

franklinpence

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 8, 2011
Messages
1,559
Likes
3,483
I wondered about what they project for after August 1st. Their answer: it depends. Here's what they say in their FAQ:

Length of the epidemic

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.
“Contact tracing” is the part of the overall response that raises a red flag for me. A lot of apps making hay of the tracking info they’ve gathered on folks. Media applying that data to represent broad sections of the community. In reality, it’s a very specific subset of the community that 1. Uses a particular app. And 2. Agrees to the sharing of their location data. Will be bad news if policy makers start crafting orders, etc based on a broad application of data gathered from a very specific audience.
 

OrangenSC

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 7, 2016
Messages
1,278
Likes
2,150
I honestly think it's dangerous advice. I seriously doubt that all these health care workers that have caught this immediately touched their faces after touching sick patients. Most wash hands before and after treating patients. And studies have shown the virus can only live on your hands for approximately 10 mins. It's not like it seeps into your skin. It still has to be breathed in or possibly get in your eyes. And why is the CDC considering advising everyone to wear face masks in public? It has been shown to remain in aerosol form for much longer than it can remain on your skin.

Washing your hands is good. And not touching your face right now is fine advice. But people should still be cautious about breathing in the virus around sick people.
?? And he said so.
 

tnhunter 10

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 6, 2016
Messages
2,234
Likes
8,086
I’m still working. When our business (wedding photography) started failing I went and got a job at Whole Foods. We’re down about $10k a month in income with the Airbnb losses and business income losses. I meet with a realtor today to put our house on the market. I’m hoping to clear a good bit and possibly move back to tennessee with the family.
Looking for a job right now is not fun, I’ll tell you that. Even with 10 years of very successful business ownership and some success in the workforce- it doesn’t seem to fit into the common employment profile. Not a whole lot of fun.
Hate to hear this. Just curious what part of Tennessee are you moving too?
 
Likes: VOLSONLY

Ulysees E. McGill

Chargervol is my homeboy
Joined
Aug 12, 2009
Messages
29,312
Likes
30,506
Wwlp...you guys that pray, throw one up for me..we have only had trips to counties local to Bell county which have had very few or no confirmed cases for the last three weeks...but my schedule changed and I got chosen to pick up a hospital release at UK Hospital today. (Kidney transplant client coming back home to Middlesboro)..where most of the Fayette county Covid-19 cases are being treated..

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our VFL dead"
 

OrangenSC

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 7, 2016
Messages
1,278
Likes
2,150
I haven't finished the video yet so I don't know if he addresses that. But do keep in mind this is advice for the general population in public. It's not advice for health care workers or even people caring for the sick at home. He even talks about some of the differences when he's in a room with a patient early in the video.

He mentions masks being a good reminder for people not to touch their faces when they are out. One thing I've seen about masks is that it may be better at keeping your droplets away from other people more so than their droplets away from you. In other words, it may be a good way to keep asymptomatic people from spreading their germs. The mask catches a good bit of what you breath and cough out.

He mentions prolonged contact a good bit. It's unclear how many virus particles you have to bring into your sinuses/airways to begin an infection. One, a million, a billion? I have no idea. It's probably one of those variable things.
I went to the grocery yesterday and my wife convinced me to wear a mask. As I was walking down an isle there was stocker there. I noticed as I walked by that he pulled his shirt up over his face. I'm guessing he thought I was wearing the mask because I have the virus and he was protecting himself from me. Interesting situation.
 

nicksjuzunk

Lived through Night of the Living Mad Cow
Joined
May 29, 2009
Messages
29,849
Likes
58,997
They admit their numbers are speculative, and can't be known or at least guessed at until after the virus runs its course.

Interesting that they don't, however, talk about the overrun on hospital capacity this virus causes in areas where mitigation measures aren't taken more quickly. That's a pretty big piece of the puzzle they are leaving out, and it's one of the biggest reasons for the mitigation efforts.

We don't have the capacity to cope with a full-on infection spread. Why don't people get this?
All numbers are speculative at this point. Same data sets, different forecasts which is why everyone should...

1. Wash your hands
2. Stay isolated
3. Hang tight and see
 

GiggerVol

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 29, 2018
Messages
785
Likes
3,019
Wwlp...you guys that pray, throw one up for me..we have only had trips to counties local to Bell county which have had very few or no confirmed cases for the last three weeks...but my schedule changed and I got chosen to pick up a hospital release at UK Hospital today. (Kidney transplant client coming back home to Middlesboro)..where most of the Fayette county Covid-19 cases are being treated..

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our VFL dead"
You be safe out there buddy. Speaking of Middlesboro, I found out the 64 yr old cedar wardrobe I just refinished was manufactured by a company called Brooks Furniture Mfg. Co., which originated in Middlesboro. They eventually relocated their mfg facility to Tazewell, TN and I believe is still in operation there. 4th generation family business I think. It is a well-built piece of furniture, though.
 

OrangenSC

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 7, 2016
Messages
1,278
Likes
2,150
We could be struck by a life ending meteor tomorrow at 9:13AM. Odds are we won't.

The "could" in the context of COVID is based on the science of epidemiology and what it means for the R0 to be what it appears to be. You can keep talking about assumptions all you want, and there are certainly plenty, but not every assumption is equally likely. The science of epidemiology says that unchecked, based on the apparent R0 of 1.5 to 2.5, between 33% and 71% of the population will need to be immune before this stops spreading. I'm not saying that, the science says that. But feel free to continue downplaying the importance of distancing...it only increases the likelihood that those assumptions end up correct.
From your posts you seem like a pretty smart person. Yet you seem to have a hard time reading what others are posting, or maybe you just ignore it if it doesn't agree with that you're saying and use your "assumptions" to jump to the worst conclusions.

Let me try this again. NEITHER MYSELF, NOR ANYONE ELSE I'VE READ ON HERE, SAY THIS SHOULD BE IGNORED. But it seems you just can't handle it if we aren't taking it all as apocalyptically as you would like us too and aren't getting more and more fearful with every big number we see from certain models, and are instead able to see this from all perspectives, and are able to see the less scary models and less scary possibilities as well.

Those models you're so enamored with are only as good as the assumptions they're based on. And those aren't my words, they're Dr Fauci's words. I would think he would be one you would trust since he loves numbers too. And the explanations related to those models use the word "could", not "would". Again, not my words. "Could", meaning possibility, maybe even probability. But not "would", meaning fact.
 

GojiraVol17

Humble member of the Orange Legion🍊💀
Joined
Dec 26, 2019
Messages
1,263
Likes
4,567
Wwlp...you guys that pray, throw one up for me..we have only had trips to counties local to Bell county which have had very few or no confirmed cases for the last three weeks...but my schedule changed and I got chosen to pick up a hospital release at UK Hospital today. (Kidney transplant client coming back home to Middlesboro)..where most of the Fayette county Covid-19 cases are being treated..

"Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more;
Or close the wall up with our VFL dead"
Prayers up! Stay clean as possible & safe! Btw I’ve got a lot of family in Bell & Harlan county. Small world
 

VN Store




Sponsors
 

Top