Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#21,751
#21,751
Septic said:
3u5feh.jpg
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If only the gov't had more control. We would be so safe without any of that dad gum freedom.
 
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#21,755
#21,755
allvol123 said:
Stock market up for 3rd straight day. Airfare I was looking at last week has jumped 50%.

People in the know starting to grasp where this virus is really going?
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People jumping on airplanes, huh? I guess maybe they do know where the virus is going, or maybe that it's coming. This might prove to be it's own problem.
 
#21,757
#21,757
Smokey'sHandler said:
Man thanks for posting the FluView information. I am having trouble concentrating here at work today because of this so I may as well dig my teeth into it. If you scroll down on the CDC page to the P&I Mortality Surveillance section you have an option to view the chart data. This spreadsheet breaks down deaths in the last four calendar years related to pneumonia and influenza and this was pretty insightful.

Since week 40 we have had 231,654 positive flu tests with 5,140 deaths. This translates to a death rate of 2.2%

In the coronavirus outbreak we have had 69,219 positive coronavirus tests with 1,054 deaths. This translates to a death rate of 1.5%.

Even with what we can measure the flu has been less contagious than the coronavirus (21,059 flu cases/week vs. 23,073 coronavirus cases/week) but more deadly than the coronavirus.
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Of course the problem with that is incubation time, testing delays, and testing availability.

This season, there have been 5,140 lab-confirmed flu deaths over 23 weeks as you point out. That’s 223 deaths a week. We are seeing that many lab-confirmed CV deaths a day right now. And we are only in the beginning stages of the spread. I think that tells us all we need to know.

Trying to run specific mortality rates by takes deaths/cases is of course riddled with error.

What I mean by that is that we are looking backwards in time in a fast changing situation. Deaths today translate to deaths of people who were infected 2.5-3 weeks ago. When cases are doubling every three days, that creates massive skew.

Also a flu test is obtained in just a few minutes while we’ve been at 3-5 days for CV. Also many people are getting the virus and not being able to get tested. However, unlike flu, we don’t know how to extrapolate from measured cases to actual cases. This further obfuscates the mortality rate.

Some of these factors deflate the rate. Some inflate it.

That’s why for the time being I’m using the Princess Diamond data to make my arm-chair assessments.
 
#21,759
#21,759
Ttucke11 said:
If only the gov't had more control. We would be so safe without any of that dad gum freedom.
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Perhaps in times of national crises where a viral pandemic is beginning to overwhelm hospitals, your loss of 'freedom' to eat at Chili's and shop at Walmart is a preferable to halt the spread of the disease and ultimately hasten the recovery. You know, for the greater good?

I'm not suggesting the military should be used to enforce martial law to slow the spread, I'm just saying it would work.
 
#21,760
#21,760
Septic said:
Perhaps in times of national crises where a viral pandemic is beginning to overwhelm hospitals, your loss of 'freedom' to eat at Chili's and shop at Walmart is a preferable to halt the spread of the disease and ultimately hasten the recovery. You know, for the greater good?
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As long as Kroger employees arent caught up in the surrender nonsense, right?
 
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#21,761
#21,761
they need to report more precise facts -- how many have health issues and compromised immune systems ? How many with poor resp. systems have been life long smokers ?
 
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#21,763
#21,763
Septic said:
Perhaps in times of national crises where a viral pandemic is beginning to overwhelm hospitals, your loss of 'freedom' to eat at Chili's and shop at Walmart is a preferable to halt the spread of the disease and ultimately hasten the recovery. You know, for the greater good?
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Screw this virus... if I can't have my jalapeno poppers, life just ain't worth livin'
 
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#21,764
#21,764
Stew Cook said:
You are way to hung up on the people trying to make Trump look bad thing, but I really don't care.

The logistics of moving a patient are far more challenging than moving equipment to a makeshift location. In a perfect world where we have adequate equipment and personnel to ensure the safety and well being of the patient as well as those personnel, I'd say go for it, but we don't. We have to weigh the available resources, which are in short supply.
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We only have so many transport monitors, transport vents. Other spots in hospitals are not set up for Icu monitoring. You can't stick a critical pt on a bp cuff and call it good. They need an arterial line for accurate bp monitoring, the need End tidal CO2 monitoring if they are vented. There are about 10 other factors which do not allow a critical pt to be moved to another floor. That's why we specialize and have specialised equipment used only in icu. We've been trained to use and interpret the data for treatment.

Hospitals rent ventilators as part of their business model. Every piece of equipment is scaled to everyday business. Cost/ benefit keeps hospitals from having enough emergency equipment on hand. They do not prepare for emergencies. We may have a protocol, but not the equipment or staff.
 
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#21,765
#21,765
Septic said:
Is there a provision in the constitution that prevents enforcement of martial law? Governors also have this power at the state level as well, no?
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States could but it would likely go to the USSC and we know how that would end. The NG isn't going to do much anyways outside major cities
 
#21,766
#21,766
allvol123 said:
Stock market up for 3rd straight day. Airfare I was looking at last week has jumped 50%.

People in the know starting to grasp where this virus is really going?
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I hope April 1 is the start date for people getting their asses back to work. Healthy people need to be out working, shopping and eating. Sick and/or old people stay home for another few weeks.
 
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#21,767
#21,767
Sea Ray said:
For the final time4, i did not post that graph showing that the US has the most cases world wide. I did not see you commenting that such a graph was pointless. I'll also add that the graph was definitely not posted here by a Trumpster. That I can assure you.

So now you're on record as stating that a graph that shows the US as having the most cases worldwide is pointless and misleading. OK. You might have a point there
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We can't know until there is a lot more testing. And until we do anti-body testing on some sort of scientifically randomized basis, we will not have reliable estimates of sheer number affected. As it is, we just see the sick, those associated with the sick, or those who can otherwise manage to get tested.
 
#21,768
#21,768
TennTradition said:
Based on this data:

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

It looks to me like the actual positive tests are only about 273,000 between public health labs and clinics. That’s through 11 weeks of the season, so about 25,000 cases a week.

I think the millions of cases figured is them modeled. Just as models currently suggest that a few million are infected with SARS-CoV-2, but testing is going to indicate a lower number. I won’t claim to know what the actual number is.

I think modeling hospitalizations is probably the best tool we have during an epidemic because there’s too much uncertainty in total case count.

It’s why I keep going back to the Princess Diamond numbers because they are some of the best we have and were a decent sample size. Based on that, a demographic-adjusted mortality rate of 0.8% seems reasonable.
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I totally messed up my math here by the way. I thought those were rolling weeks for some reason. The real number of weeks is 23. So the cases per week is actually 11,900 per week for seasonal flu. We are of course at that per day for CV.
 
#21,770
#21,770
More encouraging news. Treatment used by a NY doctor on 350 patients and it was 100% successful:

A NY Doctor shared with Hannity his Hydroxy Chloroquine/Azithromycin results.
200mg 2x daily Hydroxy Chloroquine
500mg 1x daily Azithromycin
220mg 1x daily Zinc sulfate

350 patients
• Breathing restored 3-4 hours
• Zero deaths
• Zero hospitalizations
• Zero intubations
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WATCH: NY doctor Vladimir Zelenko finds 100% success rate in 350 patients using hydroxychloroquine with zinc
 
#21,771
#21,771
lawgator1 said:
We can't know until there is a lot more testing. And until we do anti-body testing on some sort of scientifically randomized basis, we will not have reliable estimates of sheer number affected. As it is, we just see the sick, those associated with the sick, or those who can otherwise manage to get tested.
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Of course. Did you miss my quote where I said that total number of cases are bogus? I'll save you the trouble...a couple things to keep in mind here that will not ever happen so don't get your hopes up:

You will never win the PowerBall

You will never know how many Americans are really infected by this virus
 
#21,772
#21,772
NurseGoodVol said:
I've seen all the discussions but please keep something in mind with projections. This virus will hit the highest viable populations and do what viruses do. It will affect the weakest creating a data hot spot. We can't fight something we didn't know was here. It's been here since Dec or Jan, viral sequencing alludes to that. Some have no symptoms, mild symptoms i believe are the L strain which will culminate quickly and die out. It's the strain that's least pathogenic. S strain is the most virulent and as of March sequencing is 30% of cases. It will not die out as quickly, especially in larger populations. We have no differentiation in the cdcs numbers as to strains, we won't have until all the data is collected. The previous cdc viral sequencing models may or may not be useful.
Virus patterns have a nasty way of screwing with data. Infected large population areas need to be in quarantine. They need to be taken out of the National picture. These largely populated areas with a high per capita are exactly where a virus will flourish. Families with multiple generations living together will be hit. Those factors will skew national numbers and state numbers just like Washington and the nursing home.

My personal opinion is that older or high risk people should shelter at home. Everyone else should go about life. That doesn't mean ignore all sensible precautions...TFWW. This is not the first virus and it won't be the last.
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I’ve been saying this from the beginning. At risk and care takers shelter at home. Everyone else build up that immunity.
 
#21,774
#21,774
Smokey'sHandler said:
Man thanks for posting the FluView information. I am having trouble concentrating here at work today because of this so I may as well dig my teeth into it. If you scroll down on the CDC page to the P&I Mortality Surveillance section you have an option to view the chart data. This spreadsheet breaks down deaths in the last four calendar years related to pneumonia and influenza and this was pretty insightful.

Since week 40 we have had 231,654 positive flu tests with 5,140 deaths. This translates to a death rate of 2.2%

In the coronavirus outbreak we have had 69,219 positive coronavirus tests with 1,054 deaths. This translates to a death rate of 1.5%.

Even with what we can measure the flu has been less contagious than the coronavirus (21,059 flu cases/week vs. 23,073 coronavirus cases/week) but 1.47 times more deadly than the coronavirus.
Click to expand...

Quoted again so everyone reads it. Especially the panic pushers.
 
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#21,775
#21,775
TennTradition said:
That’s great. That’s a lot of patients for one doctor.
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I'm probably too cynical, but the proof is in the death rates... or whatever the the right term is.

I've been dosing Vitamin C and zinc over the last month or so, hopefully something simple can make the difference.
 
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