Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[rjd970]

Does anybody really believe the true number is less than 100,000 cases right now?

Btw, if it is 100,000 cases and you go ahead and assume 500 people have died then that is a 0.5% fatality rate in the U.S..

 

[Wireless1]

My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/18 = 2848
3/19 = 4530
3/20 = 5594 (5522 median predicted)
3/21 = 4824 (6771 was the predicted median so hopefully we are seeing a rate fall)
3/22 = 9339 (9650 median predicted)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 351,733 Cases and 15,372 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Predicted New Case Ranges ran on 3/19

3/23 12,200 - 14,900
3/24 17,000 - 20,800
3/25 23,600 - 28,800

We have 3 straight days where the new cases are under the trend line median I calculated on 3/19, but only one of those days seemed statistically significant. Even small victories have a great cumulative effect though as you can see below.

Predicted new Case Ranges Today

3/23 10, 600 - 13,000
3/24 15,000 - 18,300
3/25 20,700 - 25,300

From here on out, I think testing may become even more of a problem. Many research institutions who have tried to make their own tests have found that the necessary reagents are not available, and these will need to be produced by industry sources which are just now retooling to that task.

The other issue is that we have consumed nearly a quarter million tests to find 32K positives. When we are at the point in the pandemic where we have more new cases that our current total cases, then we probably don't have the capacity to run the needed tests.

So, as bad as our surveillance is now it is going to get worse. As of now, the testing data we do have is fairly broad and representative across the entire country. It looks very consistent with the current models that think we had a small number of cases in late January and not 10s of thousands.

Testing data to date is here.

The COVID Tracking Project

As of now:

Positive
32,617
Negative
203,389
Pos + Neg
236,006
Total
238,632

Stay safe out there.

Thanks you! A gem in this puddle of.......

 

[Sea Ray]

Does anybody really believe the true number is less than 100,000 cases right now?

Btw, if it is 100,000 cases and you go ahead and assume 500 people have died then that is a 0.5% fatality rate in the U.S..

The officials in Ohio say that their state alone has 100K cases. It's far more than 100K nationwide, making the fatality rate much less.

 

[Rifleman]

The bottom of the letter has 10 signatures with their position and the bottom line says "and 600 concerned physicians"

The story was correct at the time but should be updated. The letter was linked to a petition for members of the Tennessee Medical Association to sign.

As of Saturday, 2,000 members, not 1,500, have signed.

Petition to Urge Shelter in Place Order for COVID-19

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Saw a "maybe we don't need a vaccine... just prayer" post on my feed today and realized getting back on social media was a short lived mistake.

There are two ends of this spectrum that are really, really arrogant and silly.

 

[volfanjustin]

The story was correct at the time but should be updated. The letter was linked to a petition for members of the Tennessee Medical Association to sign.

As of Saturday, 2,000 members, not 1,500, have signed.

Petition to Urge Shelter in Place Order for COVID-19

everyone who signed it should forfeit their salary for the same time frame they want other Tennesseans to forfeit theirs.

 

[hog88]

Does anybody really believe the true number is less than 100,000 cases right now?

Btw, if it is 100,000 cases and you go ahead and assume 500 people have died then that is a 0.5% fatality rate in the U.S..

My guess is that there is/has been over 1/2 million, probably close to a million cases.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

And now? Surprised?


NYC Mayor: If Trump doesn't act, 'people will die who could have lived otherwise'

 

[Wireless1]

Yes. I agree. As testing increases, it can give the false impression that cases increase, when it just may be showing that we've been living with this for quite some time with no end to society.

And with the improved speed of results, we'll have an increased rate based on that alone, causing more panic, of course that also means that next week we'll have a reduction in % of new cases giving us all a false sense of success.

 

[Velo Vol]

In Iceland they've found that 50% of those testing positive showed no symptoms.

 

[NurseGoodVol]

The story was correct at the time but should be updated. The letter was linked to a petition for members of the Tennessee Medical Association to sign.

As of Saturday, 2,000 members, not 1,500, have signed.



Petition to Urge Shelter in Place Order for COVID-19

I thought for them to make that claim it has to be some type of association. The actual letter numbers 610 physicians. Thanks!!

I just read the petition, it only asked for social distancing.

 

[rjd970]

In Iceland they've found that 50% of those testing positive showed no symptoms.

But....but...that testing means the number of cases are “increasing”. Sigh.

 

[Wireless1]

This Nashville news station says 1500.

There are 10K physicians in TN, 2000 have signed (probably most of them in Davidson and surrounding counties. I don't see a doctor in Sparta or Milan calling for a shelter in place.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

When did James Woods of all people become the great arbiter of truth on Volnation? Seriously, you guys can do better.

Report: Democrats Push Pork for Planned Parenthood in Coronavirus Bill

 

[Rifleman]

I thought for them to make that claim it has to be some type of association. The actual letter numbers 610 physicians. Thanks!!

I just read the petition, it only asked for social distancing.

Curious as to what you were reading as the call to sign the petition is titled:

Petition to Urge "Shelter in Place" Order: COVID-19

 

[Rickyvol77]

There are 10K physicians in TN, 2000 have signed (probably most of them in Davidson and surrounding counties. I don't see a doctor in Sparta or Milan calling for a shelter in place.

It's political groups, mostly from Nashville and Memphis...

1) physicians are involved in politics, just like any other profession
2) even if the governor did what they wanted, it doesn't change people's behaviors, this is more (look at us, we are "doing" something BS)

 

[FLVOL_79]

#callback

Oops

 

[volbeast33]

The loss of the spring sports season is but one of the many pissers.
My son was just getting into the meat of his track season, and it was shaping up to be a good one.

Yeah my daughter was running track this year for the first time.... I hate that we can’t go and watch them compete

 

[FLVOL_79]

Stupid Nigerians. Don't they know not to listen to Trump. Can you think on anyone else that was touting it as an approved treatment.
US President Donald Trump claimed at a White House briefing last week that the Food and Drug Administration had approved the "very powerful" drug chloroquine to treat coronavirus.


"It's shown very encouraging -- very, very encouraging early results. And we're going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately. And that's where the FDA has been so great. They -- they've gone through the approval process; it's been approved. And they did it"
However, the FDA after the briefing issued a statement saying it had not approved the drug for use against Covid-19 and is still studying its effectiveness against the disease.

You answered your own question. You obviously have never been to Sub Saharan Africa.

 

[Wireless1]

Report: Democrats Push Pork for Planned Parenthood in Coronavirus Bill

I'd have thought planned parenthood would fall in a category like dentist (elective procedures) and were being ask to send all their PPE to local hospitals. Are they?

 

[McDad]

But....but...that testing means the number of cases are “increasing”. Sigh.

My wife and I both know people, including one of our sons, who had respiratory illnesses in the last 8 months. Nothing diagnosed but wasn't cold, flue, or "crud". She thinks we've been exposed prior to the current panic. I agree with her. This pathogen has already made its way through at least once.

 

[Rifleman]

It's political groups, mostly from Nashville and Memphis...

1) physicians are involved in politics, just like any other profession
2) even if the governor did what they wanted, it doesn't change people's behaviors, this is more (look at us, we are "doing" something BS)

That is probably true. Every state is going to do what they think is best. Many state's probably won't get hot as New York or Seattle, so they will return to normal after these initial weeks unless they become hot.

 

[37L1]

My wife and I both know people, including one of our sons, who had respiratory illnesses in the last 8 months. Nothing diagnosed but wasn't cold, flue, or "crud". She thinks we've been exposed prior to the current panic. I agree with her. This pathogen has already made its way through at least once.

Maybe. But there is a lot that is unexplained in regards to this.

 

[hog88]

My wife and I both know people, including one of our sons, who had respiratory illnesses in the last 8 months. Nothing diagnosed but wasn't cold, flue, or "crud". She thinks we've been exposed prior to the current panic. I agree with her. This pathogen has already made its way through at least once.

Been here since last Nov/Dec at least.

 

[37L1]

That is probably true. Every state is going to do what they think is best. Many state's probably won't get hot as New York or Seattle, so they will return to normal after these initial weeks unless they become hot.

There will be a tug of war between "getting back to normal" and restricting contact.