Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

[Big Gucci Sosa]

Don't tell this to Big Gucci Sosa. He's the expert on the coronavirus here....

Not enough numbers to matter.

 

[SSVol]

250,000 tested in a country of 52,000,000

After a very thorough tracing of contacts.

I'm sure they have untested people, but I also think the mortality will rise. But honestly, if the real number is 0.8%, the numbers are still scary if R0 doesn't change.

 

[volatil]

After a very thorough tracing of contacts.

In sure they have untested people, but I also think the mortality will rise. But honestly, if the real number is 0.8%, the numbers are still scary if R0 doesn't change.

Now look at Germany

 

[Jackcrevol]

Providing great leadership in this time. Best president since Reagan but media trying to have their “gotcha” moments in the time of a national crisis

 

[volatil]

See we can have a civil conversation about this. We don’t have to agree.

We all agree this needs to end though.

 

[Kristy*]

Still missing the undiagnosed because of lack of testing. That greatly impacts the mortality rate. I’m not arguing or coming from a bad place here because it’s really easy to misconstrue these comments. The lack of testing is the major flaw in this thing.

For instance, recently a kid in Tennessee had symptoms, tested positive. A few days later, 3 more of his family members have similar symptoms. They are told they won't be tested because of lack of tests and the fact that they are already in quarantine. Add these types of cases to all the people who are asymptomatic, the total number goes way up, while the fatality rate goes way down.

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

Has anyone checked the stats on DN??

 

[Kristy*]

I don't believe that Korea is under-tested. We can just disagree on that one.

They've tested fewer than 1% of their population. You don't think they've missed anybody?

 

[volatil]

For instance, recently a kid in Tennessee had symptoms, tested positive. A few days later, 3 more of his family members have similar symptoms. They are told they won't be tested because of lack of tests and the fact that they are already in quarantine. Add these types of cases to all the people who are asymptomatic, the total number goes way up, while the fatality rate goes way down.

The criteria for testing here is still ... travel to China, South Korea, Japan , Iran, Italy. Exposure to diagnosed case. Travel to area of community transmission. That’s the entire United States now. Problem is lack of tests. Murfreesboro set up testing centers and ran out in one day. So they conveniently forget the part where the entire country has experienced community transmission.

 

[SSVol]

Now look at Germany

Not to dwell on the negative, but Germany may be an outlier due to demographics. Many of their earliest cases were among young people who ski in Italy.

I think a bigger question is why is China outside Hubei only 0.7%.

 

[UTSuave’]

@Freak anyway you can set up a volnation quarantine game of poker through a livestream?...this shut out from society has me liking my odds in a betting game.ive won every hand so far against myself

 

[jakez4ut]

I'm not saying that the viruses are closely related, I am saying that the reaction and symptoms are very similar. Influenza is one of the most complex problems in infectious disease control because there are so many rapidly evolving strains that even the CDC cannot keep up with it.

Ok.. Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying

 

[drvenner]

They got a pope, they should be good on the prayer thing.

Come on, Newt. Be better.

 

[Big Gucci Sosa]

They got a pope, they should be good on the prayer thing.

T and P

 

[delfonic]

Has anyone checked the stats on DN??

I heard renowned epidemiologist Yerm O. Thur was responsible for all metrics concerning DN.

 

[jakez4ut]

Someone give this man a medal. Thank you for a competent and positive response & statement. View attachment 267741

 

[drvenner]

Virginia beats Michigan St. in OT to move on to play us on Friday.

We fixin to pay them back for the Ralph Sampson tourney losses back in the day.

 

[Devo182]

1. And there's the rub. You're using 1-2m as if it's fact. I think that number is preposterous. jmo. otoh I haven't heard one reputable doctor or infectious disease expert give those numbers. And by reputable, I mean someone like Dr Fauci. Not someone on social media or tv or so and so said. Doctors are just like the rest of us, they have opinions, but those opinions aren't necessarily formed by info any better than mine. They can tell you what's happening in the hospital, etc., but they aren't the experts on this disease and therefore can't say how many can or will die. That's just someone's guess that many others are dangerously running with.

2. If you'd read my post with an open mind you'd see the comparison makes perfect sense. If our primary goal is no or few deaths no matter the cost, then we'd be reacting to other threats, whether they be flu, suicide, homicide, or whatever, with the same earnestness. Politics.

There is no "fact", there are predictions. I gave the high end of expert predictions.

We spend billions a year on drugs (war on drugs), flu shots and research, and mental health. Not sure why people are acting like we ignore them.

 

[SSVol]

They've tested fewer than 1% of their population. You don't think they've missed anybody?

Of course they have, but it is well established that Korea pounced on this very early and very thoroughly vetted contacts in an effort stop the spread. Their efforts were obviously pretty good because their case rate dropped dramatically.

The other part of this argument is that deaths greatly lag positive cases. Deaths take as long as 8 weeks after symptom onset. We won't know the real number anywhere until active cases and new cases are both at zero. That's why I've been watching places with reducing new cases...they will give us the first glimpse on what the real mortality number is.

Even that may be irrelevant. Americans are much fatter than Germans and Koreans. Our numbers may vary greatly from other countries and even between states or regions.

 

[JacketVol]

I completely believe that 1.1-2.3M could die if we don't take strong corrective measures. That's exactly what the math says. These painful measures are designed to change that outcome, which I believe will happen.

Math doesn’t add up even using worse case ITALY so far. 3-4 months and 14k globally. It just doesn’t. Also, I do not think this 15 day pause is a strong corrective measure either. People will have this and never be in the numbers because they have no symptoms nor die either.

 

[volatil]

Math doesn’t add up even using worse case ITALY so far. 3-4 months and 14k globally. It just doesn’t. Also, I do not think this 15 day pause is a strong corrective measure either. People will have this and never be in the numbers because they have no symptoms nor die either.

I just want mass testing. Let’s get some numbers so we can get a better handle on this.

 

[Wadetime]

Unlike China, the US is out every day speaking and in the case of Trump taking question after question. It’s good to see.

his answers hardly ever make sense and he talks at a third grade level. Sometimes he has snowflake answers like "what a nasty question". That coming from Mr. Bone spurs himself. Comical.

 

[jakez4ut]

some people have immunity to this...they think. its my understanding from reading that's how viruses work.

what they dont understand is the positive test AFTER symptoms are gone. lots not understood, like are there two strains - one more aggressive than other? Why elderly so much more impacted? Does quinine/zpack work? what about other anti virals?

Yeah Jake, flatten the curve. Troof.

Well that's another consideration here as well... Keeping people under wraps right now, and for ever how long it lasts, buys some time for researchers while we're hopefully not spreading this at the rates it's capable of.

 

[Devo182]

Math doesn’t add up even using worse case ITALY so far. 3-4 months and 14k globally. It just doesn’t. Also, I do not think this 15 day pause is a strong corrective measure either. People will have this and never be in the numbers because they have no symptoms nor die either.

Can't compare one to the other. The world took extreme measures to keep it that way.

The high estimate is if we did nothing (like we treat flu). Imagine Wuhan with zero quarantine and continued travel all over the world. Those are high estimates for the U.S., if we treated it like "it's just the flu".

 

[Devo182]

his answers hardly ever make sense and he talks at a third grade level. Sometimes he has snowflake answers like "what a nasty question". That coming from Mr. Bone spurs himself. Comical.

Thank god Dr Fauci is there to correct him, so some accurate information at least escapes that place.