Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#16,151
#16,151
Stew Cook said:
I've heard some discussions of that concern. Apparently it mutates over time, as most viruses do, but If it gets worse, I'm not sure anyone can say.

Personally, I imagine it will be a natural selection type evolution, where the mutations that can endure, will.
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Supposively the mutations are deadlier in conflict zones ie WW1.
 
#16,152
#16,152
Electric Orange said:
Supposively the mutations are deadlier in conflict zones ie WW1.
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Can't say I know, but concentrated groups of infection might create a scenario where the virus adapts to different genetic makeups creating more mutations.

Isolation prevents the spread. So, in theory, if it dies off in a host without making it to another, that would reduce the mutations.
 
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#16,153
#16,153
DinkinFlicka said:
I'd have blown my pretty head off if I lived there more than the three months I did. I'm a Knoxville dude right now.
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Hey moving on up. Ktown ain't bad. My grandparents lived there. Still have cousins there. And know a really good preacher there if being out of Jackson changes your life perspective. lol. If you haven't made the trip to Gus' Good Times Deli, go ahead and knock that out. And a nice treat is also 17th Street Market and Deli when they got those grills and smokers out front fired up. They drop the smoked wings in the deep fryer to crisp up, then dust with curry powder. My son fixes wings that way now. Ye Olde Steak House is a long standing place to get good steak dinners. Since you're in the food industry.

I guess taken as a whole Jackson is alright. I'm a conservative/moderate sort, but it wasn't ever my favorite place. Good people. I'm just not into anything West TN from an asthetic perspective.
 
#16,154
#16,154
hog88 said:
It's very possible.
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So then isn't it possibly a lot to ask of someone not at risk from the 1st wave to distance themself to avoid what ends up bringing them some immunity against their likely killer, the 2nd wave?
 
#16,155
#16,155
Rifleman said:
My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and 5 day projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/18 = 2848
3/19 = 4530 (almost double projection)

Transmission rate appears to be higher here than in other countries right now, honestly. Up until now, 100 people with coronavirus would give you 133 new infections. In America, that appears to be 144 new infections or a transmission rate of 1.44.

However, new testing coming online and a hot spot in NYC is probably responsible for this appearance, but that is something to keep an eye on. If the rate doesn't fall despite interventions, it might be logical to assume this virus has been here to some extent for a while longer than we previously understood.

My prediction ranges for new confirmed cases for the next 5 days are below. If we start to dip below these it will be good news. Frankly, we need to start hitting these ranges at least, and I believe some reversion to mean is likely in the next few days.

These projections are again higher than they were yesterday as they incorporate yet another very big daily number from 3/19. My model still sees a transmission rate bending downward, but more slowly after the last few days.

Predicted New Case Ranges Modeled by Daily Transmission Rate Variances

3/20 2870 - 3510
3/21 4100 - 5020
3/22 5820 - 7120
3/23 8200 - 10,200
3/24 11,440 - 13,990

Watching to see if the decrease in transmission from current efforts to distance show up. Once these projected ranges start to be way too high instead of way too low, as they have been the past three days, we will know the transmission curve is bending.

Stay safe out there.
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And just to note, if my model is wrong and the true infection rate here really is closer to 1.44, then we should see about 6,500 new cases today.

If that happens, while I don't think we are actually at 1.44, we may be significantly above the 1.33 we are seeing in most places.

In that case I would adjust my model accordingly to the more pessimistic projections below.

Predicted New Case Ranges Modeled by Daily Transmission Rate Variances - Pessimistic

3/20 4,970 - 6,070 (5,520 median as even my pessimistic model is under 1.44)
3/21 7,110 - 8,690
3/22 10,090 - 12,330
3/23 14,200 - 17,360
3/24 19,830 - 24,230
 
#16,158
#16,158
Rifleman said:
And just to note, if my model is wrong and the true infection rate here really is closer to 1.44, then we should see about 6,500 new cases today.

If that happens, while I don't think we are actually at 1.44, we may be significantly above the 1.33 we are seeing in most places.

In that case I would adjust my model accordingly to the more pessimistic projections below.

Predicted New Case Ranges Modeled by Daily Transmission Rate Variances - Pessimistic

3/20 4,970 - 6,070 (5,520 median as even my pessimistic model is under 1.44)
3/21 7,110 - 8,690
3/22 10,090 - 12,330
3/23 14,200 - 17,360
3/24 19,830 - 24,230
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Are you somehow figuring in the increased testing?
 
#16,159
#16,159
GVF said:
Hey moving on up. Ktown ain't bad. My grandparents lived there. If you haven't made the trip to Gus' Good Times Deli, go ahead and knock that out. And a nice treat is also 17th Street Market and Deli when they got those grills and smokers out front fired up. They drop the smoked wings in the deep fryer to crisp up, then dust with curry powder. My son fixes wings that way now. Ye Olde Steak House is a long standing place to get good steak dinners. Since you're in the food industry.

I guess taken as a whole Jackson is alright. I'm a conservative/moderate sort, but it wasn't ever my favorite place. Good people. I'm just not into anything West TN from an asthetic perspective.
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Brother this is my hometown! Haha.

Gus's fed me through college.
 
#16,160
#16,160
Stew Cook said:
Can't say I know, but concentrated groups of infection might create a scenario where the virus adapts to different genetic makeups creating more mutations.

Isolation prevents the spread. So, in theory, if it dies off in a host without making it to another, that would reduce the mutations.
Click to expand...

Those viruses get smart over time. Look at today's flu strains verses just a couple decades back.
 
#16,162
#16,162
These are not fun questions. I dont like asking them. But I can't get it out of my head that everyone seems to be so sure flattening the curve is the best option. I hope they're right.
 
#16,171
#16,171
DinkinFlicka said:
Brother this is my hometown! Haha.

Gus's fed me through college.
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My bad. I don't remember you saying that in our other normal conversations. I always liked Knoxville. My grandparents lived out in Woodfield park off Chapman and John Sevier. My cousins and all still scattered around over on the west side of downtown. My granddad was a TVA engineer and had vested work in several of the older dams. He was a big on the conservation scene around there with the state in his retirement years. He died in 2000 and my grandma in 2007, so my trips to town have dwindled over time.
My son treated me to the TN/SC game this year for my bday (which means I paid for the tickets). It was his first big college game. Took him to Gus' before the game. He wanted to go back after, and the line forced us to 17th Street Market. My first time there and loved it.
 
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