My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and 5 day projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/18 = 2848
3/19 = 4530 (almost double projection)
Transmission rate appears to be higher here than in other countries right now, honestly. Up until now, 100 people with coronavirus would give you 133 new infections. In America, that appears to be 144 new infections or a transmission rate of 1.44.
However, new testing coming online and a hot spot in NYC is probably responsible for this appearance, but that is something to keep an eye on. If the rate doesn't fall despite interventions, it might be logical to assume this virus has been here to some extent for a while longer than we previously understood.
My prediction ranges for new confirmed cases for the next 5 days are below. If we start to dip below these it will be good news. Frankly, we need to start hitting these ranges at least, and I believe some reversion to mean is likely in the next few days.
These projections are again higher than they were yesterday as they incorporate yet another very big daily number from 3/19. My model still sees a transmission rate bending downward, but more slowly after the last few days.
Predicted New Case Ranges Modeled by Daily Transmission Rate Variances
3/20 2870 - 3510
3/21 4100 - 5020
3/22 5820 - 7120
3/23 8200 - 10,200
3/24 11,440 - 13,990
Watching to see if the decrease in transmission from current efforts to distance show up. Once these projected ranges start to be way too high instead of way too low, as they have been the past three days, we will know the transmission curve is bending.
Stay safe out there.