It's easy to feel confident when you only take their negatives into account. They also played Michigan State down to the wire in East Lansing, until the Spartans hit a FG with 0:05 left in the game. They also trailed by just a FG at State College, until Penn State scored a TD with less than 2 minutes left in the game.
We have 5 all-conference players. They have 6 -- plus 2 honorable mention. They have a better, more consistent QB. Their all-conference tailback is 6'2" and weighs 235 lbs. and has more rushing yards and more 100-yard games than anyone on our roster. Their all-conference WR has 1,000+ yards receiving -- more than our top receiver. They also have 3 other receivers with 500+ yards. We have 1 receiver, beside JJ, who has >500 yards. They have an all-conference placekicker and a kick returner that averages 20+ yards per return. Their defense has given up 3 points and 15 yards per game average more than our's. As for the quality of the teams they beat, it is probably worth remembering that all of our wins came against teams with a combined losing record, too. We're actually pretty evenly matched on paper. For all of these reasons, I expect a competitive game.