It's easy to feel confident when you only take their negatives into account. They also played Michigan State down to the wire in East Lansing, until the Spartans hit a FG with 0:05 left in the game. They also trailed by just a FG at State College, until Penn State scored a TD with less than 2 minutes left in the game.
It seems even easier to overestimate an opponent and underestimate our own.
IU played about the same over the course of the season. They were probably a little better team with Penix. They are not a very good defensive team. Their O is scheme based success more than player based success. Ideally you would like to be both. But with teams that depend on scheme, you take things away. IMO, UT has corners that can go man with any of their receivers. That should free UT's LB's up to attack the screens that IU depends on for success.
We have 5 all-conference players. They have 6 -- plus 2 honorable mention.
Take the teams in the Big 10 and match them to the corresponding team in the SEC as far as quality of players. The Big 10 is nowhere near as deep with talent as the SEC. LSU is better than tOSU. Bama or UGA playing against Big 10 competition would have probably been undefeated as well. There are probably 4 or 5 SEC teams in the same category talent wise as tOSU. Michigan is probably second in the Big 10 and would be 2nd tier in the SEC.
I'm not saying IU doesn't have good players but all conference lists are relative... and to a degree political.
They have a better, more consistent QB.
Maybe. But I've watched a few replays of IU. Their QB lives on screen passes. I've been critical of JG... but he's done a good job stretching D's the last several games. Mizzou and UK have good pass D's... much better than IU's.
Their all-conference tailback is 6'2" and weighs 235 lbs. and has more rushing yards and more 100-yard games than anyone on our roster.
He's a really good player. IMO, stopping him and screens is key for UT's D.
Their all-conference WR has 1,000+ yards receiving -- more than our top receiver.
And he's a 5'11", 180 lb kid from FL whose only in state offers were USF and UCF. That doesn't mean he isn't a good player. It does mean that he likely isn't better than a bunch of guys UT faced this year in the SEC.
They also have 3 other receivers with 500+ yards. We have 1 receiver, beside JJ, who has >500 yards. They have an all-conference placekicker and a kick returner that averages 20+ yards per return. Their defense has given up 3 points and 15 yards per game average more than our's.
Have you tried to put context around those stats?
As for the quality of the teams they beat, it is probably worth remembering that all of our wins came against teams with a combined losing record, too.
Four of UT's 6 FBS wins came against teams with 6 or more wins. All of IU's wins came against teams with less than 6 wins.... and some of those teams are really, really bad.
We're actually pretty evenly matched on paper. For all of these reasons, I expect a competitive game.
Anything might happen. But UT is the more talented team. UT really should be a 9 win team this year. If the team playing at the end of the season had played the beginning of the season... they would have been.
I am not sure where you come down in the recruiting rankings debate. But if they are an indicator of talent... UT averages 16th over their last 4 classes. IU averages 50th. IU has not signed a single player with a 4/5* rating during that period. UT has signed over 30. UT should have an overwhelming talent advantage.