Look at and categorize the schedule:
Gimmies: Georgia St, UTC
Should win: BYU, UAB
Toss ups (50/50): Miss St, South Carolina, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt
Will likely be underdog, but still a chance of winning: Missouri
Assumed losses: at Florida, Georgia, at Alabama
If you handle all the gimmies/should wins and split the toss ups, that's 6 wins. 7 wins is possible, and 8 would be a really great season. The floor is theoretically 4, IMO, and would be a miserable season.
It's so hard to categorize these before the season starts. It is entirely possible that the Vandy game, for instance, ends up being a "should win" by the back end of the season if Vandy really has struggled, is dealing with injuries, etc. Before the Kentucky game last year, I would have put that in the "assumed loss" category but we ended up winning. Same with Auburn. I would have put Florida in the "toss up" category but we got smoked.
Assuming the gimmies/should win games are handled, the season will be determined by how we do in the toss up games.