I don’t know why everyone is so high on Missouri. Didn’t they lose basically their entire OL from last season? I’m not ready to anoint Kelly either; I think there are a number of QB’s around the country that could’ve been plugged into that 2017 Clemson offense and would’ve put up similar or better numbers. Best the Tigers could do last year was 8 wins, and I won’t be surprised to see them take a step back offensively.
The updated FPI has MO ranked as the 19th best team in the country on paper but as you alluded to they lost a lot of production. They rank #94 in offensive returning production and #57 in defensive returning production. Missouri has the weakest schedule in the conference and I think that is one of the primary reasons some people are “high” on Mizzou; it’s relative to their schedule.
They open on the road against an FPI ranked #95 Wyoming who basically lost almost everything from last year on both sides of the ball.
Next West Virginia comes to Columbia. West Virginia lost pretty much their entire offense. Can Neal Brown as the new head coach build an offense in time to take on the tigers? FPI ranks West Virginia as the 82nd best team on paper this year. WVU has a middle of the road defense so I don’t know if that will be enough to keep them in the game.
Next up is SE Missouri, an FCS cupcake.
Their first real test comes next as they host FPI ranked #18 South Carolina. If Mizzou hasn’t figured out their offense by this time I think this is likely when the Tigers initially get exposed.
Next up Troy comes calling with a new head coach and having lost much of their own offense from 2018 ranks as the #93 team in the nation according to FPI.
Back to the SEC next with a visit from Ole Miss who ranks #130 in offensive returning production for 2019. Ole Miss on paper has a borderline top 40 defense but will Rich Rod be able to move the ball and score some points?
Next is a visit to Nashville to take on the Commodores who rank #119 in defensive returning production. Not having an offense isn’t as concerning when the opponent doesn’t have a defense.
Then they go to Kroger Field and again may not see much defensive resistance as Kentucky ranks #127 in defensive returning production. I think Kentucky’s offense could be better in some ways this year mostly because I expect Wilson to be improved.
Then it gets really tough on the tigers. They could be 7-1 at this point but first up in the last 4-game block they have to visit Athens. They will lose.
Then Florida visits Columbia. Florida should be a bit better on the offensive line by this point in the season so Mizzou loses again.
Then we show up, probably undefeated, and basically blow them out of their own stadium.
They finish with a contest with Arkansas at Little Rock and we end up beating them twice in 2019 as they will not have had time to recover from the absolute vengeful ass-whooping we will have put on them the previous week.
I see them as possibly either 6-6 or 7-5 this year but given the way their schedule lays out their hype will likely seem real for the first two-thirds of the season. jmo.
