5* recruiting (debunked)

#51
#51
Exceptions to the rule do not invalidate the rule.
Recruiting stars is playing the percentages. 4☆ and 5☆ recruits are lower risk than 3☆ recruits. Sometimes 5-4☆ guys just don't translate into college because of other factors. Sometimes lower rates guys just click and get it or bloom in a system. It's like playing poker, you want the best hand you can get but can be beat by a bad beat
 
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#52
#52
butchna said:
Here’s another...Clemson built it’s championship ROSTERS without being an annual fixture in the top 10. Star johns can’t see past the recent. Deshaun Watson’s 2014 class? 16th. 2015 got into that top 10 at 9...back down to 11 the next...and 16th in 2017 before # 10 last year. Facts be crazy. 😎
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Facts? You cited the exception to make your argument. Poor reasoning
 
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#54
#54
Devo182 said:
Err Brady was taken by Michigan, probably a high 4* by most estimates. Remember, he predated the modern recruiting landscape. The idea he was some unknown 2* is completely false.
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Wasn't Brady a 6th round pick? A backup quarterback @ Misheeegan? Asking for a friend.
 
#55
#55
1vol8 said:
The thread was posted a few days ago suggesting we don't have a chance without 5* recruits. So I took to google to find out how right he could be and decided, instead of debating a percentage of what I learned based on a comment here and there, why not put it all on here? So here we go.

Let's see how we would feel about this hypothetical roster at UT back in the day.

Qb1 Arron Rodgers
Qb2 Matt Ryan
Rb1 Levion Bell
Wr. Mike Evans
OL Travis Frederick
OL. Trent Williams
TE. Travis Kelsey

C. Richard Sherman
DL Von Miller
DL Arron Donald
DL Cliff Avril
All 3* recruits and that's just the probowl.

According to 247 we shouldnt be talking about 2* talent such as Aquib Talib or Kalil Mack because they are less likely to go pro.

Even less talk is deserved for the bottom feeders (unranked) such as Tony Romo and Tom Brady.

Ive never been a believer in the recruiting services for reasons unimportant (although one reason should already be clear). But if you choose to believe a panel full of guys that went to school to learn how to do this from a book, be my guest. I'll trust my own eyes and experience along with the coaching staff that trust the same things over what some pencil pusher says they are.
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Recruiting is not an exact science at all. For example for every 5 star stud like Eric Berry there is going to be a 5 star bust like Chris Donald. However, look at the teams who win NSD and finish with highly rated classes according to recruiting services. Those teams are typically the ones who are either winning nattys or competing for them.
 
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#56
#56
Teams without lots of top rated talent can win some games with the right coaching and system, like the service acadamies, but to win Nattys, it takes top talent. It is what it is
 
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#58
#58
njvols said:
I understand your point...If we get the right 3*'s, that's the key. For example, I like how it seems that Pruitt wants to certainly see any 3* in camp before offering. That will help.

All this being said, yes, there's 3*'s littered all over the NFL, but the the more 4's and 5's you have on your team, the lesser chance they are a bust...see UGA, Bama, Clemson, LSU
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Im not at all suggesting that we don't need ANY. Im only saying exactly what you said. We don't HAVE to have them or a top 5 class to compete with Bama. We need the RIGHT players.
 
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#59
#59
Smokeyone said:
Exceptions to the rule do not invalidate the rule.
Recruiting stars is playing the percentages. 4☆ and 5☆ recruits are lower risk than 3☆ recruits. Sometimes 5-4☆ guys just don't translate into college because of other factors. Sometimes lower rates guys just click and get it or bloom in a system. It's like playing poker, you want the best hand you can get but can be beat by a bad beat
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It’s not a RULE because blowhard star johns deem it so. You BUILD your team and program with the talent you can land and develop. Once that’s established, the talent that service egghead nerds rate higher will sign on more readily.
 
#60
#60
butchna said:
Two championships...pretty big “exception”. 😎
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It also helps to have the second best HC in CFB. Additionally, the classes signed by Clemson during their championship runs are still highly rated by the standards of many teams. Dabo and company are great evaluators of talent for sure.
 
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#61
#61
PEPPERJAX said:
It also helps to have the second best HC in CFB. Additionally, the classes signed by Clemson during their championship runs are still highly rated by the standards of many teams. Dabo and company are great evaluators of talent for sure.
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Kinda my point. Saying that you haven’t landed suitable talent unless the geeks put you on an arbitrary top 10 list writes it’s own clueless, shortsighted delusion.
 
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#62
#62
butchna said:
Kinda my point. Saying that you haven’t landed suitable talent unless the geeks put you on an arbitrary top 10 list writes it’s own clueless, shortsighted delusion.
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Hopefully Pruitt can start recruiting like Dabo.
 
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#64
#64
butchna said:
It’s not a RULE because blowhard star johns deem it so. You BUILD your team and program with the talent you can land and develop. Once that’s established, the talent that service egghead nerds rate higher will sign on more readily.
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Those eggheads have a better record than you and me at predicting talent
 
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#65
#65
Smokeyone said:
Exceptions to the rule do not invalidate the rule.
Recruiting stars is playing the percentages. 4☆ and 5☆ recruits are lower risk than 3☆ recruits. Sometimes 5-4☆ guys just don't translate into college because of other factors. Sometimes lower rates guys just click and get it or bloom in a system. It's like playing poker, you want the best hand you can get but can be beat by a bad beat
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Stars are a metric created for fans. So if it's a rule, then it's one invented by and for fans - who are certainly less dependable in predicting the success of a football player than an actual coach is.
 
#66
#66
butchna said:
Kicked their ass most recently. And that devastating 8 loss season for us...two straight for Nebraska. And we still outrecruited them.
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Was speaking on the Bo Pelini years, so if you compare the last 10 seasons they've done better
 
#67
#67
CAVPUT said:
I'm going to disagree. Many have speculated that we're making the in-state recruits a priority and we should. These kids know they've got a spot locked up so they're in no rush. Sounds logical and reasonable to me. Pruitt has to start locking down the in-state kids. He's doing exactly what he has to. No choice really. If that doesn't jive with a timeline that fans want/expect, so be it.

Until Pruitt knows how things are going to fall in-state, his hands are tied to a degree. I suspect he's got a group of kids in-state that are his foundation for this class. Once they fall..one way or the other...he's then going to need to adjust the rest of this class accordingly. It's akin to putting together a materials list for a new house when you don't have the plans/dimensions of the construction.

Hell, even if they do commit right this minute, that's not binding. Maybe wait to judge the man on signing day? Personally, I'd wait until the class graduated to grade it.
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I agree with you about waiting until after to grade the class but Pruitt doesn't seem to be doing well in state. I know it takes a while to establish relationships but when top 10 in state players are leaving thats not good
 
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#69
#69
I’d think the single most predictive indicator is a rating based on the scholarship offers - which recruiting rankings will make adjustments for and is at least one reason they have predictive value. I trust that coaches are a better evaluator of talent and potential than someone running a recruiting site.
 
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#70
#70
The Original Fade said:
Those eggheads have a better record than you and me at predicting talent
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There's kids so talented that anyone can see it but most of the rankings are based off of which proven coaches have shown interest.
If Pruit wins big, then any soph he shows interest in will enter the rankings higher. Those eggheads do less in identifying talent than many give them credit for.
 
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#71
#71
PEPPERJAX said:
Hopefully Pruitt can start recruiting like Dabo.
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It also didn't hurt that while Dabo was building his program, he was playing ACC competition. Is what it is, but much easier to dominate year in, year out, once the program is built, in a lesser competitive conference. Harder to build programs in SEC, but I think once Vols start getting some real momentum with wins, that we'll catch fire pretty fast and leapfrog many of the others in the SEC. That's why THIS year is so important. Showing real progress this year will put us on our way, but another 5-7, 6-6, or even 7-5 year, and we'll keep muddling along...just my opinion.
 
#72
#72
butchna said:
Kicked their ass most recently. And that devastating 8 loss season for us...two straight for Nebraska. And we still outrecruited them.
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To me beating Nebraska anytime is cool. I think a lot of programs still feel that way about Tennessee
 
#74
#74
chargervol said:
There's kids so talented that anyone can see it but most of the rankings are based off of which proven coaches have shown interest.
If Pruit wins big, then any soph he shows interest in will enter the rankings higher. Those eggheads do less in identifying talent than many give them credit for.
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^This is something I forgot that is actually very true.
 
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#75
#75
njvols said:
It also didn't hurt that while Dabo was building his program, he was playing ACC competition. Is what it is, but much easier to dominate year in, year out, once the program is built, in a lesser competitive conference. Harder to build programs in SEC, but I think once Vols start getting some real momentum with wins, that we'll catch fire pretty fast and leapfrog many of the others in the SEC. That's why THIS year is so important. Showing real progress this year will put us on our way, but another 5-7, 6-6, or even 7-5 year, and we'll keep muddling along...just my opinion.
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Even if that's the case I wouldn't get discouraged until you see a field full of Pruitt recruits. Hard to judge a coach off of someone else's recruits when said previous coach (which shall remain anonymous) didn't even recruit well for his OWN system.
 
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