Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

Status
Not open for further replies.
#147,676
#147,676
Kingston Vol said:
Yes, but there are far, far more three stars or less ranked prospects.

I would imagine the hit rate on 5 stars is still pretty good.
Click to expand...

Someone should show that stat then. How many 4 and 5 stars from the class got picked vs didn't get drafted? It still shows that the majority of NFL talent drafted this year was either undervalued coming out of school, advanced in their development in college or were outright ignored by the big three recruiting services.
I say this because if Pruitt takes on 3-star or less talent that he truly believes he can develop or in his evaluation exceeds their star designation, people will complain ad nauseam about stars.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VolsDoc81TX and nicksjuzunk
#147,677
#147,677
utkevdawg1 said:
Someone should show that stat then. How many 4 and 5 stars from the class got picked vs didn't get drafted? It still shows that the majority of NFL talent drafted this year was either undervalued coming out of school, advanced in their development in college or were outright ignored by the big three recruiting services.
I say this because if Pruitt takes on 3-star or less talent that he truly believes he can develop or in his evaluation exceeds their star designation, people will complain ad nauseam about stars.
Click to expand...
Well I think both things can be true.

You’d prefer to have a team full of 5 stars. But at the same time, an individual 3 star prospect is not guaranteed to be only an average football player.

Where you get into a problem - at this level - is when you’re loading up on three stars. No matter how good your coaching and evaluation is, you can’t turn all of them into draft picks.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: nicksjuzunk, chavisut and Devo182
#147,680
#147,680
So just for my own amusement.

2010 had 32 5 star players, 15 of them were undrafted (46.8%) of those 15 only 3 never "made" the NFL. So 29 out of 32 5 star recruits from the 2010 class (went by 247 composite rankings) made NFL rosters and at least were given a chance to make the team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kingston Vol
#147,682
#147,682
shoney said:
Al Pacino in Scent of a Women
View attachment 203896
Click to expand...

A great movie and Pacino's speech before the university board was awesome.

The interesting thing about the courtroom scene in Animal House is that the movie was shot in Oregon, much of it on the UofOregon campus, but they used a TN state flag in the scene. It' the best looking of all the state flags, so I can understand them preferring to use that flag, just always seemed odd though considering where the movie was filmed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VolsDoc81TX and shoney
#147,684
#147,684
Crazy Ivan said:
A great movie and Pacino's speech before the university board was awesome.

The interesting thing about the courtroom scene in Animal House is that the movie was shot in Oregon, much of it on the UofOregon campus, but they used a TN state flag in the scene. It' the best looking of all the state flags, so I can understand them preferring to use that flag, just always seemed odd though considering where the movie was filmed.
Click to expand...
I was in a fraternity in college so I love Animal House. We even had a couple of Toga parties.
toga.gif
 
  • Like
Reactions: VolsDoc81TX, Paper_Towel and Cosmo Kramer
#147,689
#147,689
utkevdawg1 said:
Someone should show that stat then. How many 4 and 5 stars from the class got picked vs didn't get drafted? It still shows that the majority of NFL talent drafted this year was either undervalued coming out of school, advanced in their development in college or were outright ignored by the big three recruiting services.
I say this because if Pruitt takes on 3-star or less talent that he truly believes he can develop or in his evaluation exceeds their star designation, people will complain ad nauseam about stars.
Click to expand...

Is this what you are looking for?

Looking at how the 2014 recruiting class fared in the draft:

2018 NFL Draftees
Click to expand...
5-star: 19
4-star: 70
3-star: 106
2-star: 19
NR: 42

If one were to look at those numbers without an explanation, you’d see that 167 of 254 drafted players ranked as a three-star prospect or below. That’s 65.7 percent of all players drafted. But one also needs to consider the pool in which these players are coming from. To do so, let’s take a look at the 2014 class, those players that would’ve been fourth-year seniors in 2017, along with the percentage of them drafted based on the 2018 NFL Draft.


2014 Class - 247Sports Composite

5-star: 33 (57.6%)
4-star: 296 (23.6%)
3-star: 1,541 (6.9%)
2-star: 1,666 (1.1%)
NR: NA
Click to expand...

And the 2013 recruiting class:

2017 NFL Draft
Click to expand...
Five-star: 23
Four-star: 76
Three-star: 90
Two-star: 25
NR: 38

2013 Class - 247Sports Composite

Five-star: 35 (65.7%)
Four-star: 330 (23%)
Three-star: 1,790 (5%)
Two-star: 1,720 (1.4%)
Click to expand...

How recruiting rankings fare projecting future NFL Draft picks
 
  • Like
Reactions: Bms4880 and Devo182
#147,694
#147,694
ChattaTNVol said:
Is this what you are looking for?

Looking at how the 2014 recruiting class fared in the draft:



And the 2013 recruiting class:



How recruiting rankings fare projecting future NFL Draft picks
Click to expand...

Yes. This is good data. While 5 star has a pretty good rate of success, 4-star really doesn't (strictly speaking as far as NFL draft goes).
Reading into it a bit based on the raw numbers, it hints that evaluators at the big three recruiting services are likely to underrate and overrate widely in that 3 and 4 star bracket if it is used to determine future NFL draftees which is usually a sign of individual contributor success.
 
#147,695
#147,695
utkevdawg1 said:
Someone should show that stat then. How many 4 and 5 stars from the class got picked vs didn't get drafted? It still shows that the majority of NFL talent drafted this year was either undervalued coming out of school, advanced in their development in college or were outright ignored by the big three recruiting services.
I say this because if Pruitt takes on 3-star or less talent that he truly believes he can develop or in his evaluation exceeds their star designation, people will complain ad nauseam about stars.
Click to expand...
That’s right, because elite teams are earning their living on elite prospects. It’s really that simple.

NFL evaluation is just noise when debating the importance of Recruiting evaluations. The only observation that matters is, how have the college football teams that have had success recently been Recruiting recently? I think there is a pretty strong correlation.

You can get into side debates from there, but that’s your thesis statement.
 
#147,697
#147,697
McGeesPub said:
That’s right, because elite teams are earning their living on elite prospects. It’s really that simple.

NFL evaluation is just noise when debating the importance of Recruiting evaluations. The only observation that matters is, how have the college football teams that have had success recently been Recruiting recently? I think there is a pretty strong correlation.

You can get into side debates from there, but that’s your thesis statement.
Click to expand...

My thumb rule is 40% of 5-stars will not get drafted. 75% of 4-stars will not get drafted. 95% of 3-stars will not get drafted and 99% of all 2-stars and below will not get drafted. Regardless of the star rating finding the right guys for your roster is a bit like playing roulette. There are no sure things, just percentages. That said, I think fans are more comfortable "trusting the coaches" if it looks like the coaches are playing for the higher percentages. jmo.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SmokinBob, SweetasSoda and Devo182
#147,698
#147,698
drvenner said:
Hiestand? Wasn't he just here one year? I don't recall the O-line killing it in Dooley's first year.
Click to expand...
Was here two. So he recruited the kids that Pittman got credit for developing. It’s the Shoop disease...they’re elite everywhere else but our fans want them fired first game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JacketVol, zhangliao04, HankHill and 2 others
#147,699
#147,699
InstrumentalVol said:
Agreed. Could be the BVS but I think if we go 7-5 we should be grateful. This turn around is going to take a full 4 years.
Click to expand...
At least, and that is...IF...Pruitt can turn it around. I think he can, he just has to return to beating the dregs first, and then get over the middle SEC hump...no mistaking it, we are on the bottom right now.
 
#147,700
#147,700
butchna said:
Was here two. So he recruited the kids that Pittman got credit for developing. It’s the Shoop disease...they’re elite everywhere else but our fans want them fired first game.
Click to expand...
Thanks, the only thing I remember about his tenure was that one press conference where he dropped the G-D bomb after one of the questions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HankHill
New posts
Status
Not open for further replies.
Advertisement





Back
Top