2019 Season Decision Tree

#32
#32
BigOrangeMojo said:
Just a couple of comments:


1. We weren't any better than UAB last year. Not sure we can call them a cupcake or gimme. SEC Teams that go 5-7 and quit the last 2 games just don't have a lot of gimmes on the schedule
2. We are just 2-2 this decade in Lexington. Can't call that a gimme or cupcake either.
3. There is a plausible scenario where we can win 10 games (I'm not as sold on UF as some) but if we play like we did the last 2 games, we will go 2-10.
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Because UAB lost about 80 percent of their guys.
 
#35
#35
USMC-TNVOL said:
I don’t see how a win against BYU is considered “real progress” if there wins against Auburn on the road and KY last year.
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Got a theory on the Kentucky win last year. We were fortunate to a) get Kentucky at home b) get Kentucky after they played UGA the week before.
For those who don't remember the UGA/KY game last season... Winner take all - SEC Championship game in the bag to the victor. Biggest home game for the Wildcats in decades.

Not only did KY lose, but a pretty good UGA beat them up pretty good. They were psychologically whipped when they arrived in Knoxville.

What gives a little merit to this "theory" is the two games we played after Kentucky.
Missouri 50, Tennessee 17
Vanderbilt 38, Tennessee 13

Yes, glad we won, but we had help.
I still think we beat KY this year.. Why? They lost some really good players, and it appears some of our new guys are going to perform.
 
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#36
#36
Nice chart JP,I'm too lazy to do that stuff. I just give likes and say"atta boy".
Really tho, 6-7 wins is what I'm guessing and to me that's some improvement. It's not as much as we want but still improvement.
I've always said it has taken years to get in the hole we were in so it will take years to get out of it. Not being negative,I'll be glad to see any improvement each year.
 
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#38
#38
I don't believe Vandy will be as good without Shurmur and Webb. So I think they are very beatable compared to the past two years.

Mizzou is losing a bit and losing Lock. I was very optimistic until they got Bryant but he hasn't really shown to be an elite player imo. I think it's more likely that we win this year than the past two years.
 
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#41
#41
dcm3w said:
I don't believe Vandy will be as good without Shurmur and Webb. So I think they are very beatable compared to the past two years.

Mizzou is losing a bit and losing Lock. I was very optimistic until they got Bryant but he hasn't really shown to be an elite player imo. I think it's more likely that we win this year than the past two years.
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Vandy lost over 25 players, many were starters. Vaughn is actually more dangerous than Webb though but he is their only real threat that I'm aware of. Make no mistake, CJP will ensure we beeotch slap them hard. We win this one comfortably.

Mizzou lost most of their playmakers except stud TE Albert Okwuegbunam and RB Larry Rountree III. They lost Lock, Hall, Brown, Crockett, Beckner and others. They gain Bryant who isn't as good as Lock but supposedly the offense is better designed for him. Very tough road test unless they get discouraged about bowl game and pack it in. I would put us at 5 point underdogs for now.

Kentucky will be another interesting battle. They too lost a ton of Seniors, starters and their two best players in Juniors Josh Allen and Benny Snell. Road game too. I think we win this one but Stoops has been doing a better job of building depth, even if it is 3 star depth. I think we win a tough road game here.
 
#42
#42
Also that decision tree has Kentucky as a given win in all scenarios but not Vandy. Kentucky on the road will be a much tougher game than Vandy at home. We should win both of those game anywho!
 
#43
#43
Thanks to those who caught the mistake about where we play USCe. I appreciate it.

HuntlandVolinColo said:
Also that decision tree has Kentucky as a given win in all scenarios but not Vandy. Kentucky on the road will be a much tougher game than Vandy at home. We should win both of those game anywho!
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*nod* It does. Here's why.

Look at the Vols-'Cats record. Go back 10 years. We're 8-2. Or 20 years, we're 18-2. Or 30 years, we're 28-2. Last year was Kentucky's absolute best team since the Tim Couch era, and arguably much longer than that...and we beat them 24-7. We simply don't (hardly ever) lose to the Cats. And they just lost Benny Snell to the draft.

Now (and this hurts me to point out), look at our record versus Vandy. Just 5-5 in the past 10 years (yes OUCH, that really hurt to type). Truth is, they may not be a better team than Kentucky most years, but they're a better team AGAINST US than Kentucky.

Really, really REALLY hoping we change that back, starting this season.

Anyway, that's why the Ky game is listed as pretty sure bet, while the Vandy game isn't.

Go Vols!
 
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#44
#44
bluetick2 said:
As long as jg starts we will never win more than 7 games
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If JG gets put in the decision tree then need a couple of branches for OL and DL, neither of which have not played well enough to get us past 5 win threshold. I do, however, think 8 wins is more likely than 6 or less...especially if we get Solomon on board this year, and at least a couple of our Frosh OL are as advertised, and can be consistent contributors by game 4-5.
 
#45
#45
HuntlandVolinColo said:
Vandy lost over 25 players, many were starters. Vaughn is actually more dangerous than Webb though but he is their only real threat that I'm aware of. Make no mistake, CJP will ensure we beeotch slap them hard. We win this one comfortably.
Click to expand...

If CJP had that ability, then he should have used it last year so that we would have been bowl eligible. Instead, we got beeotch slapped hard by Vandy. As it turns out, head coaches don’t make plays. Players do. Our players aren’t particularly good. To assume that we are going to win a game comfortably over a team that has destroyed us more often than not recently is asinine.
 
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#46
#46
VFL-82-JP said:
Thanks to those who caught the mistake about where we play USCe. I appreciate it.



*nod* It does. Here's why.

Look at the Vols-'Cats record. Go back 10 years. We're 8-2. Or 20 years, we're 18-2. Or 30 years, we're 28-2. Last year was Kentucky's absolute best team since at least the Tim Couch era, and arguably since even longer than that...and we beat them 24-7. We simply don't (hardly ever) lose to the Cats. And they just lost Benny Snell to the draft.

Now (and this hurts me to point out), look at our record versus Vandy. Just 5-5 in the past 10 years (yes OUCH, that really hurt to type). Truth is, they may not be a better team than Kentucky most years, but they're a better team AGAINST US than Kentucky.

Really, really REALLY hoping we change that back, starting this season.

Anyway, that's why the Ky game is listed as pretty sure bet, while the Vandy game isn't.

Go Vols!
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Vandy has beaten us 5 of the last 7 times we have played them, including 2 of the last 3 games in Knoxville. It does not seem to have fully registered with many Vol fans just how bad we have been. We are not the same team we used to be. We haven’t been that team for a very long time now. Hopefully we will get back to that level at some point (and the sooner the better).
 
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#47
#47
JohnD13 said:
Why do people set themselves up for a possible 10-2 season? NEVER HAPPEN.

Also can anyone explain exactly what this chart is showing?
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Straight green line he is calling a win and red straight line he is calling a loss. Diagonal of each are the same but less certain. All have to point to next opponent, so any unsure games will create more necessary lines. In essence, the last game for Bama will probably be one mascot icon 😂
 
#48
#48
VFL-82-JP said:
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

View attachment 202992

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
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Bama’s last game will still only need one icon 😂🤣😂
 
#49
#49
Vol423 said:
If CJP had that ability, then he should have used it last year so that we would have been bowl eligible. Instead, we got beeotch slapped hard by Vandy. As it turns out, head coaches don’t make plays. Players do. Our players aren’t particularly good. To assume that we are going to win a game comfortably over a team that has destroyed us more often than not recently is asinine.
Click to expand...

This!!!

giphy.gif
 
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