2019 Projected S&P, Vols #21

#26
#26
While these rankings dont mean anything, I think its kind of impressive. Especially since most of us know how little playmaking talent we actually have.
 
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#29
#29
Neyland Law Vol said:
you can be 21 best team in the country and still end up 6-6- with our schedule according to this ranking.
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How do you get that? Being behind or ahead is not a win or loss, just a favorite or dog (depending on home or away). If USC is 18th and we're 21st, then that's a 50/50 game in Neyland.

On the flipside, the closest opponent below us is uk at 14 spots behind, so we should be a favorite.

Point is - being ahead or behind isn't everything, it's about margins. Give me being a 49/51 dog in 12 games over 5 guaranteed wins and 7 guaranteed losses.
 
#30
#30
DiderotsGhost said:
The problem is that while we are "projected" #21, six of the teams on our schedule are ranked above us, so we're still projected to be 6-6.
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But it doesn't work that way. Games aren't black and white, they are probabilities. It's better to look at all games as probabilities and shoot it through a simulator.

If you can't find or make a simulator, give me your chances of UT winning each game next year (40% vs uf, 50% vs usc, etc) and I'll give you the odds of our final record.
 
#31
#31
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Pardon me, but considering we were No. 79 in the same rankings last year, I'll take this No. 21 ranking as a positive sign. I also think there is a good chance we end up 6-6 as this ranking projects. Hopefully a little better.
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So 58 spots better and only 1 game difference?
 
#33
#33
UtahVol said:
These rankings are probably accurate and show why the SEC is so hard. You can be the 25th best team in the country but still be 10th in the SEC.
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That's been true for the last 20 years. I don't need some BS off-season ranking to tell me so.
 
#36
#36
Considering the recruiting class and the returnees it is certainly a possibility that we will be much better. How many wins that means with the standard you have to reach in the SEC remains to be seen.
 
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#38
#38
Behr said:
I'm glad you're in this BS off-season ranking thread to tell me so. I feel much better knowing.... .

"Just when I thought I was out....they pull me back in"
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Very true! OK...starting now!!!!!!
 
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#39
#39
Anything above 6-6 is a pretty decent coaching job IMO. I really think SCarolina and Missouri are toss up games regardless of the edge they have. Injuries of course could have an effect especially if QB or Oline are effected. 5-7 should be the basement and 8-4 the ridiculously overachieving top but I'll pick a record of 7-5 next year and maybe scaring the hell out of an elite team like UGA.
 
#43
#43
chrismc1000 said:
We are ****ed, we again are getting hyped and we will not live up to it.
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Hyped? This is literally just a metric based on certain factors that we score well in. It does take into account recruiting rankings, and even under Pruitt we're now 2 top 25 classes in. It does not take into account many variables though. I don't see this as hype. We will not likely be mentioned anywhere as a top 25 team.

Side note: doesn't Miss State lose their QB, Nick Fitzgerald, to the draft? Are they expected to be better without an NFL level QB?
 
#44
#44
WilliamDuVOL said:
Side note: doesn't Miss State lose their QB, Nick Fitzgerald, to the draft? Are they expected to be better without an NFL level QB?
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Nick Fitzgerald is far from an NFL level QB, he can't throw the ball to save his life. Their backup Keytaon Thompson will most definitely be a better passer for them but they're not going to have the running attack they had last year especially with the loss of Aeris Williams (starting RB) as well.
 
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#45
#45
OleRockyTop said:
Nick Fitzgerald is far from an NFL level QB, he can't throw the ball to save his life. Their backup Keytaon Thompson will most definitely be a better passer for them but they're not going to have the running attack they had last year especially with the loss of Aeris Williams (starting RB) as well.
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I don't think he's starting QB material, but I think he'll be maybe a late round pickup as a mobile guy to either become a project or a scout team QB. I should have clarified that. He's been a good college QB, but I agree his passing doesn't translate well enough yet to be a high draft pick.

Has Thompson played yet? I didn't watch them play a lot this past season. I guess I definitely will leading up to our game to know what to expect.
 
#46
#46
WilliamDuVOL said:
I don't think he's starting QB material, but I think he'll be maybe a late round pickup as a mobile guy to either become a project or a scout team QB. I should have clarified that. He's been a good college QB, but I agree his passing doesn't translate well enough yet to be a high draft pick.

Has Thompson played yet? I didn't watch them play a lot this past season. I guess I definitely will leading up to our game to know what to expect.
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Thompson played pretty much the whole game against Ole Miss & then the whole game against Louisville in the bowl game 2 years ago when Fitzgerald went down to injury. Then he played again this year against Stephen F. Austin when Fitzgerald was suspended for the first game.
 
#47
#47
OleRockyTop said:
Thompson played pretty much the whole game against Ole Miss & then the whole game against Louisville in the bowl game 2 years ago when Fitzgerald went down to injury. Then he played again this year against Stephen F. Austin when Fitzgerald was suspended for the first game.
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Ah I see. Plus by the time we play them we'll have plenty of new scouting material on him.
 
#48
#48
WilliamDuVOL said:
Hyped? This is literally just a metric based on certain factors that we score well in. It does take into account recruiting rankings, and even under Pruitt we're now 2 top 25 classes in. It does not take into account many variables though. I don't see this as hype. We will not likely be mentioned anywhere as a top 25 team.

Side note: doesn't Miss State lose their QB, Nick Fitzgerald, to the draft? Are they expected to be better without an NFL level QB?
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Going from not ranked with a **** season to now ranked in the early polls both on ESPN and this SB ranked yea that's hype. Everytime we got hyped in the last 5years we never lived up to it
 
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