If Things Seem Like They Haven't Changed Much...Numbers Don't Lie!

[OnlyGodForgives]

Things don't seem like they've changed much at all, and they have not, except for one important number: yards per play. That alone is a significant upgrade. Over a half yard per play, seems pretty good.

 

[jacvols]

+9% increase in pass completion %?!?! WOOOOOOOOOHHHOOOOOOO! JG gonna lead the team out of the darkness!!

Wish he'd hurry up& start

 

[NEVolFan]

Gotta get those punt #s back up... its what we are known for.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Definitely some improvementbin some areas. We all know the offense as a whole needs to improve dramatically. I am actually proud of the defense. They haven't played nowhere near as bad as I expected. I think the numbers would be even better for them if the offense was better.

All and all, not too bad for a coaching staff with rookie OC and DC. Thanks OP.

 

[southpaw75]

Can't wait to see stats comparing the last 5 games of this season v. last season when the whole team had up and quit.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Since we are doing the statistics game, in 2017 our 2 losses (through 5 games) came by 6 and 41 points respectfully. In 2018, our 3 losses have all been by exactly 26 points.

 

[Volfan2012]

I think the OL has prevented us from passing as much as we would like to. They just can't defend against the pass rush. To bad because we really have the WR's to throw it downfield a lot during games. The problem would we have an OL that could protect enough to let those plays develop. The answer is sadly no.

 

[TNHopeful505]

Here's a positive as well.

After this year, we will lose:

LB - Dillon Bates
QB - Keller Chryst
DB - Todd Kelly Jr.
RB - Madre London
DB - D.J. Henderson
LS - Jesse Medford
WR - Malik Elion
DL - Paul Bain
DL - Alexis Johnson
LB - Jonathan Kongbo
DL - Shy Tuttle
DL - Kyle Phillips
DB - Micah Abernathy

Everyone else has 1-3 years left, and not that's not including anyone who hasn't redshirted.

This team is doing just good as good as a team that lost:
Shaq Wiggins, Josh Smith, Kendal Vickers, Brett Kendrick, Trevor Daniel, Justin Martin, Emmanuel Moseley, Cortez McDowell, Aaron Medley, Evan Berry, Elliott Berry, Jakob Johnson, Colton Jumper, Coleman Thomas, Jashon Robertson, Ethan Wolf, Raashan Gaulden, John Kelly, Jack Jones, Kahlil McKenzie.

I just feel optimism about that as long as we can recruit and develop some quality players.

 

[Behr]

Since we are doing the statistics game, in 2017 our 2 losses (through 5 games) came by 6 and 41 points respectfully. In 2018, our 3 losses have all been by exactly 26 points.

Since its a "game", what was the significance of your move?

 

[TNHopeful505]

Since we are doing the statistics game, in 2017 our 2 losses (through 5 games) came by 6 and 41 points respectfully. In 2018, our 3 losses have all been by exactly 26 points.

Yes, and our three losses this year came to teams who currently ranked #2, #9, and #22. And the Florida team last year went 4-7 last year. Just like this year, our loss to Florida was us beating ourselves. I don't think there's anyone who would deny that.

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

Since its a "game", what was the significance of your move?

Do you recall opening the year with 3 losses by the exact same margin? I don't. Especially an odd football number like 26, what were the odds? To your question, with all due respect to the OP for doing a lot of work, I don't think any of this is very significant at this point. Too small of a sample size, not enough common opponents.

 

[Russdaddy2027]

I looked at some numbers early this morning and we're last in the SEC in pass attempts. That needs to change going forward. We ain't running the ball the next few games so we need to stop wasting downs

I think the offense has to prove they can run before a passing game opens up

 

[zydane47]

Fumbles:
2017 - 4
2018 - 7
Change: Jeremy Banks.

 

[Behr]

Do you recall opening the year with 3 losses by the exact same margin? I don't. Especially an odd football number like 26, what were the odds? To your question, with all due respect to the OP for doing a lot of work, I don't think any of this is very significant at this point. Too small of a sample size, not enough common opponents.

Oh I agree, OP should have put this in the "insignificant information thread", or at least included that in his title.

 

[sjt18]

The D looks better. The O is nowhere near good enough to compete with good P-5 teams.

 

[TNHopeful505]

Do you recall opening the year with 3 losses by the exact same margin? I don't. Especially an odd football number like 26, what were the odds? To your question, with all due respect to the OP for doing a lot of work, I don't think any of this is very significant at this point. Too small of a sample size, not enough common opponents.

So....
Ga Tech isn't comparable to WVU? No, WVU is better.
Indiana State isn't comparable to ETSU? Indiana State went 0-11.
UMass isn't comparable to UTEP? UMass went 4-8 in a terrible conference.
Florida isn't comparable to Florida?
Georgia isn't comparable to Georgia?

Get real. We are performing better this year against better competition.

 

[GBOVFL88]

The biggest takeaway here is the incremental improvements that we have made thus far with less talent and a new set of coaches in there current roles. We have improved in most areas, and have shown fight. The fight portion is an intangible that cannot be quantified, but it supports that we have a better mindset that we will need to continue the upward trajectory. I think that the numbers support that we are getting better under CJP and company, and I think that the whole is greater than the sum of it's parts. I see a big improvement between now and the end of the year that stats will support and I huge leap forward going from 2018 to 2019.

 

[photovol]

Dunno about you, but if I get a 9% interest rate increase on my credit card, I'm ticked.
And if I get a 9% raise at work, I'm over the moon.

9% may not seem like a lot, and maybe it's only 5 passes or something...but what if those 5 passes were the 5 touchdown passes? Then all of a sudden that 9% is a bigger deal.

Don't you love the what if's
What if.............

 

[GoVols64]

Nice work OP, appreciate the post!!!

 

[B-17 Pilot]

So, I just wanted to look at the numbers from this year through 5 games, and last year, 5 games. Figured I'd break down what I found and try to draw some conclusions. Basically, this is how I wasted my morning instead of doing nursing school homework. Keep in mind, our first 5 games last year (GT, Indiana State, Florida, UMass, Georgia) and our first 5 this year (WV, ETSU, UTEP, Florida, UGA) are what I factored in. Here's what the numbers say!

Passing Attempts:
2017 - 161
2018 - 106
Change: 55 fewer passing attempts in 2018.

Passing Completions:
2017 - 88
2018 - 66
Change: 22 fewer completions in 2018.

Completion Percentage:
2017 - 54%
2018 - 63%
Change: +9% in completion percentage in 2018

Passing Yards:
2017 - 979
2018 - 914
Change: 65 fewer yards in 2018.

Passing TD's:
2017- 7
2018 - 5
Change: 2 fewer passing TDs in 2018

Rushing Attempts:
2017 - 160
2018 - 209
Change: 49 more rushing attempts in 2018

Rushing Yards
2017 - 688
2018 - 891
Change: 203 more rushing yards in 2018.

Rushing Yards Per Attempt:
2017 - 4.42
2018 - 4.06
Change: -0.36/yard per carry in 2018

Rushing TD's:
2017 - 8
2018 - 10
Change: 2 more rushing touchdowns scored in 2018.

Total Plays Ran:
2017 - 321
2018 - 315
Change: 6 fewer plays ran in 2018

Total Yards Gained:
2017 - 1667
2018 - 1805
Change: 138 more yards gained in 2018.

Avg. Yards Per Play:
2017 - 5.1
2018 - 5.68
Change: 0.58 more yards gained per play in 2018.

Passing 1st Downs:
2017 - 44
2018 - 37
Change: 7 fewer first downs gained by passing in 2018.

Rushing 1st Downs:
2017 - 37
2018 - 43
Change: 6 more first downs gained by running in 2018.

Total 1st Downs:
2017 - 90
2018 - 91
Change: 1 more 1st down achieved in 2018.

Offensive Penalties:
2017 - 25
2018 - 28
Change: 3 more offensive penalties in 2018.

Offensive Penalty Yards:
2017 - 204
2018 - 215
Change: 11 more offensive penalty yards in 2018.

Fumbles:
2017 - 4
2018 - 7
Change: Jeremy Banks.

Interceptions Thrown:
2017 - 6
2018 - 3
Change: 3 fewer interceptions thrown in 2018.

Time of Possession:
2017 - Had ball 44.9% of game on average.
2018 - Had ball 51.2% of game on average.
Change - Had ball 6.3% more during game on average.

Punts:
2017 - 29
2018 - 26
Change: 3 fewer punts in 2018.
Defense:

Pass yards allowed:
2017 - 646
2018 - 913
Change: 267 more pass yards allowed in 2018

Pass TD Allowed:
2017 - 5
2018 - 8
Change - 3 more passing TD's allowed in 2018.

Rush Yds Allowed:
2017 - 1263
2018 - 759
Change: 504 fewer rushing yards allowed in 2018.

Rushing TD's allowed:
2017 - 11
2018 - 8
Change: 3 fewer rushing TD's allowed in 2018.

Defensive Penalties:
2017 - 30
2018 - 32
Change: 2 more penalties this year.

Defensive Penalty Yards:
2017 - 228
2018 - 235
Change: 7 more penalty yards in 2018.

Turnovers Forced:
2017 - 6
2018 - 5
Change: 1 fewer turnover forced in 2018.

Tackles:
2017 - 400
2018 - 283
Change: 117 fewer tackles in 2018.

Sacks:
2017 - 5
2018 - 9
Change: 4 more sacks in 2018.

TFL:
2017 - 32
2018 - 27
Change: 5 fewer TFL's in 2018

Points Scored:
2017 - 121
2018 - 130
Change: 9 more points scored in 2018.
Points Allowed:
2017 - 128
2018 - 128
Change: No change.

So, basically, what this tells me? There's improvement here.

• Of the 6 turnovers that we forced by this time last year, 4 of those were by players that are no longer here. We already have 5 of them this year.
• Of the 400 tackles we recorded last year, 175 (44%) of them were by players who are no longer here.
• 925/979 of the passing yards were Quinten Dormady. JG and KC have 914 yards on 55 fewer attempts. Passing efficiency is much improved.
• Of the 688 rushing yards, 494 of them (72%) were John Kelly. He is gone. And yet, between Chandler, Jordan, Banks, and whoever else, we have managed over 200 yards more than last year.
• 6/8 rushing TDs on last year were JK. We already have 10 on the year.
• If this team seems slightly familiar? It is.
  • Basically we have traded almost equally rushing attempts for passing attempts. 55 fewer passing attempts for 49 more rushing attempts.
  • We have traded fumbles and interceptions. We have 3 more fumbles than last year, and 3 fewer interceptions.
  • We are close to the same in penalties.
  • We are slightly less efficient in running the ball than we were last year (0.36 yards per carry less), but much better in our efficiency in throwing the ball (higher completion percentage as well as 2.7 yards more per completion).
  • We have allowed the exact same number of points total, just distributed it out differently.
  • We have traded pass success in defense for run success in defense. 267 more yards allowed through the air, and 504 FEWER yards allowed on the ground.
  • We have gotten off the field quicker, as evidenced by fewer tackles (117 less than last year), and a time of possession that has increased approximately 4 minutes more than last year.
• Consider that all of this is coming with:
  • A new head coach.
  • A new offensive and defensive playbook and scheme.
  • A schedule that thus far as included 5 teams with a combined record of 17-7 (UTEP is 0-5), and 3 of those teams will likely be ranked this week.
  • Playing a team who has scored an average of 42.25 points per game, thrown for an average of 372 yards a game, and already 17 passing TD's through 4 games. It's not like we're the only ones they've lit up.
  • A QB who barely played at this point last season, 3 RB's who barely played at this point last season, and yet our passing efficiency and run game is better than it was last year.
  • Losing: Cam Sutton, Gaulden, Moseley, Justin Martin, McKenzie, McDowell, Jumper, John Kelly, who accounted for a large amount of our offensive and defensive production.
• And yet...
  • We have not allowed more points than we did last year, even with a lot of newcomers in the secondary and a new scheme.
  • We have significantly stopped the run better than last year, an absolute MUST in the SEC.
  • We have almost equalled the number of turnovers forced from last year.
  • We have scored 9 more points.
  • We have compiled 138 more yards than this point last year.
• I just can't say we are worse like many people are. We lost a lot of players, and yet, the numbers seem to point to the fact that we are performing more efficiently and even better in some areas, despite playing a tougher schedule through the 1st 5 games.

Just wanted to share these numbers with you. Improvement is coming, and is showing. I believe in this team after looking at the numbers. We have some work to do, but we are going to get there.

GBO!

Awesome post!! I would much rather see an analytical post like this as compared to a rant that just says fire the coach!

 

[08Vol]

Yes, and our three losses this year came to teams who currently ranked #2, #9, and #22. And the Florida team last year went 4-7 last year. Just like this year, our loss to Florida was us beating ourselves. I don't think there's anyone who would deny that.

UF would have beat us with or without the turnovers. Their D-line was cutting through our O-line like a hot knife through butter. The safety was their D line pushing our O-line around on a play where both teams knew a run was coming. We couldn’t tackle their larger backs one on one, same thing happened against UGA. Cut the turnovers and UF’s margin of victory is lower but they still win

 

[unfrozencvmanvol]

So....

Florida isn't comparable to Florida?
Georgia isn't comparable to Georgia?

Get real. We are performing better this year against better competition.

Well, Iet's compare the 2017 Vols versus GA & FLA and the 2018 Vols versus GA & FLA, these teams are at least between 70-80 % the same, so while the comparison is not perfect, it is better than comparing games against teams that are 100% different. As noted above, I think 5 games is too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions and so of course is 2 also, but if you two want to pick nits, here goes:

POINTS
Last Year we were outscored 67-20 (avg. - 23.5)
This Year we were outscored 85-33 (avg. - 26)
ADVANTAGE: LAST YEAR

3RD & 4TH DOWN EFFICIENCY OF GA/FLA
Last Year GA/FLA were 16 for 31 against us on 3rd/4th downs (0.516)
This Year GA/FLA were 12 for 25 against us on 3rd/4th downs (0.480)
ADVANTAGE: THIS YEAR

3RD & 4TH DOWN EFFICIENCY OF UT
Last Year UT was 7 for 26 on 3rd and 4th down against GA/FLA (0.269)
This Year UT was 10 for 30 on 3rd and 4th down against GA/FLA (0.333)
ADVANTAGE: THIS YEAR

RUSHING by UT
Last Year UT ran for 245 yards on 62 attempts for 3.95 YPC
This Year UT ran for 222 yards on 79 attempts for 2.81 YPC
ADVANTAGE: LAST YEAR

RUSHING by GA/FLA
Last Year GA/FLA ran for 462 yards on 84 attempts for 5.5 YPC against UT
This Year GA/FLA ran for 452 yards on 84 attempts for 5.38 YPC against UT
ADVANTAGE: THIS YEAR

PASSING by UT
Last Year UT was 32 for 62 for 339 yards for 5.46 yards per pass
This Year UT was 23 for 46 for 351 yards for 7.63 yards per pass
ADVANTAGE: THIS YEAR

PASSING by GA/FLA
Last Year GA/FLA were 25 for 45 for 296 yards for 6.57 yards per pass
This Year GA/FLA were 27 for 43 for 376 yards for 8.74 yards per pass
ADVANTAGE: LAST YEAR

PENALTIES by UT
Last Year UT was penalized 12 times for 80 yards
This Year UT was penalized 11 times for 84 yards
ADVANTAGE: LAST YEAR

TURNOVERS
Last Year UT was -3 in turnovers against GA/FLA
This Year UT was -6 in turnovers against GA/FLA
ADVANTAGE: LAST YEAR

TIME OF POSSESSION
Last Year UT held the ball a total of 57:46 of 120:00
This Year UT held the ball a total of 55:58 of 120:00
ADVANTAGE: LAST YEAR

TOTAL YARDS
Last Year GA/FLA had 758 total yards to UT’s 584
This Year GA/FLA had 828 total yards to UT’s 573
ADVANTAGE: LAST YEAR

So LAST YEAR beats THIS YEAR in 7 of the 11 ABOVE STATISTICAL CATEGORIES against common opponents. Does this mean we are DOOMED? No. Does this mean we should "FAHR PRUITT"? No. Does this mean it's too d**n early to draw many conclusions from statistics? Yeah.

 

[KBVol]

Record after 5 games:
2017 -- 3-2
2018 -- 2-3

The difference, obviously, is that we eeked out a 1 point OT win last year after allowing 41 points and nearly 700 yards to a sub.500 GaTech team....vs this year getting a very good WVa team and their Heisman Trophy candidate QB in the opener.