If Things Seem Like They Haven't Changed Much...Numbers Don't Lie!

#1
TNHopeful505

TNHopeful505

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#1
So, I just wanted to look at the numbers from this year through 5 games, and last year, 5 games. Figured I'd break down what I found and try to draw some conclusions. Basically, this is how I wasted my morning instead of doing nursing school homework. Keep in mind, our first 5 games last year (GT, Indiana State, Florida, UMass, Georgia) and our first 5 this year (WV, ETSU, UTEP, Florida, UGA) are what I factored in. Here's what the numbers say!

Passing Attempts:
2017 - 161
2018 - 106
Change: 55 fewer passing attempts in 2018.

Passing Completions:
2017 - 88
2018 - 66
Change: 22 fewer completions in 2018.

Completion Percentage:
2017 - 54%
2018 - 63%
Change: +9% in completion percentage in 2018

Passing Yards:
2017 - 979
2018 - 914
Change: 65 fewer yards in 2018.

Passing TD's:
2017- 7
2018 - 5
Change: 2 fewer passing TDs in 2018

Rushing Attempts:
2017 - 160
2018 - 209
Change: 49 more rushing attempts in 2018

Rushing Yards
2017 - 688
2018 - 891
Change: 203 more rushing yards in 2018.

Rushing Yards Per Attempt:
2017 - 4.42
2018 - 4.06
Change: -0.36/yard per carry in 2018

Rushing TD's:
2017 - 8
2018 - 10
Change: 2 more rushing touchdowns scored in 2018.

Total Plays Ran:
2017 - 321
2018 - 315
Change: 6 fewer plays ran in 2018

Total Yards Gained:
2017 - 1667
2018 - 1805
Change: 138 more yards gained in 2018.

Avg. Yards Per Play:
2017 - 5.1
2018 - 5.68
Change: 0.58 more yards gained per play in 2018.

Passing 1st Downs:
2017 - 44
2018 - 37
Change: 7 fewer first downs gained by passing in 2018.

Rushing 1st Downs:
2017 - 37
2018 - 43
Change: 6 more first downs gained by running in 2018.

Total 1st Downs:
2017 - 90
2018 - 91
Change: 1 more 1st down achieved in 2018.

Offensive Penalties:
2017 - 25
2018 - 28
Change: 3 more offensive penalties in 2018.

Offensive Penalty Yards:
2017 - 204
2018 - 215
Change: 11 more offensive penalty yards in 2018.

Fumbles:
2017 - 4
2018 - 7
Change: Jeremy Banks.

Interceptions Thrown:
2017 - 6
2018 - 3
Change: 3 fewer interceptions thrown in 2018.

Time of Possession:
2017 - Had ball 44.9% of game on average.
2018 - Had ball 51.2% of game on average.
Change - Had ball 6.3% more during game on average.

Punts:
2017 - 29
2018 - 26
Change: 3 fewer punts in 2018.
Defense:

Pass yards allowed:
2017 - 646
2018 - 913
Change: 267 more pass yards allowed in 2018

Pass TD Allowed:
2017 - 5
2018 - 8
Change - 3 more passing TD's allowed in 2018.

Rush Yds Allowed:
2017 - 1263
2018 - 759
Change: 504 fewer rushing yards allowed in 2018.

Rushing TD's allowed:
2017 - 11
2018 - 8
Change: 3 fewer rushing TD's allowed in 2018.

Defensive Penalties:
2017 - 30
2018 - 32
Change: 2 more penalties this year.

Defensive Penalty Yards:
2017 - 228
2018 - 235
Change: 7 more penalty yards in 2018.

Turnovers Forced:
2017 - 6
2018 - 5
Change: 1 fewer turnover forced in 2018.

Tackles:
2017 - 400
2018 - 283
Change: 117 fewer tackles in 2018.

Sacks:
2017 - 5
2018 - 9
Change: 4 more sacks in 2018.

TFL:
2017 - 32
2018 - 27
Change: 5 fewer TFL's in 2018

Points Scored:
2017 - 121
2018 - 130
Change: 9 more points scored in 2018.
Points Allowed:
2017 - 128
2018 - 128
Change: No change.

So, basically, what this tells me? There's improvement here.
  • Of the 6 turnovers that we forced by this time last year, 4 of those were by players that are no longer here. We already have 5 of them this year.
  • Of the 400 tackles we recorded last year, 175 (44%) of them were by players who are no longer here.
  • 925/979 of the passing yards were Quinten Dormady. JG and KC have 914 yards on 55 fewer attempts. Passing efficiency is much improved.
  • Of the 688 rushing yards, 494 of them (72%) were John Kelly. He is gone. And yet, between Chandler, Jordan, Banks, and whoever else, we have managed over 200 yards more than last year.
  • 6/8 rushing TDs on last year were JK. We already have 10 on the year.
  • If this team seems slightly familiar? It is.
    • Basically we have traded almost equally rushing attempts for passing attempts. 55 fewer passing attempts for 49 more rushing attempts.
    • We have traded fumbles and interceptions. We have 3 more fumbles than last year, and 3 fewer interceptions.
    • We are close to the same in penalties.
    • We are slightly less efficient in running the ball than we were last year (0.36 yards per carry less), but much better in our efficiency in throwing the ball (higher completion percentage as well as 2.7 yards more per completion).
    • We have allowed the exact same number of points total, just distributed it out differently.
    • We have traded pass success in defense for run success in defense. 267 more yards allowed through the air, and 504 FEWER yards allowed on the ground.
    • We have gotten off the field quicker, as evidenced by fewer tackles (117 less than last year), and a time of possession that has increased approximately 4 minutes more than last year.
  • Consider that all of this is coming with:
    • A new head coach.
    • A new offensive and defensive playbook and scheme.
    • A schedule that thus far as included 5 teams with a combined record of 17-7 (UTEP is 0-5), and 3 of those teams will likely be ranked this week.
    • Playing a team who has scored an average of 42.25 points per game, thrown for an average of 372 yards a game, and already 17 passing TD's through 4 games. It's not like we're the only ones they've lit up.
    • A QB who barely played at this point last season, 3 RB's who barely played at this point last season, and yet our passing efficiency and run game is better than it was last year.
    • Losing: Cam Sutton, Gaulden, Moseley, Justin Martin, McKenzie, McDowell, Jumper, John Kelly, who accounted for a large amount of our offensive and defensive production.
  • And yet...
    • We have not allowed more points than we did last year, even with a lot of newcomers in the secondary and a new scheme.
    • We have significantly stopped the run better than last year, an absolute MUST in the SEC.
    • We have almost equalled the number of turnovers forced from last year.
    • We have scored 9 more points.
    • We have compiled 138 more yards than this point last year.
  • I just can't say we are worse like many people are. We lost a lot of players, and yet, the numbers seem to point to the fact that we are performing more efficiently and even better in some areas, despite playing a tougher schedule through the 1st 5 games.
Just wanted to share these numbers with you. Improvement is coming, and is showing. I believe in this team after looking at the numbers. We have some work to do, but we are going to get there.

GBO!
 
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#4
#4
Not too surprising. I feel like I've seen some improvement, but also some things that are worse. The tackling is still sketchy, at best. OL play is either improving or we are doing a better job of disguising our weaknesses. Would like to see us be able to line-up right -- don't think that's too much to ask.

I really appreciate threads like this where the OP takes some time and effort to compile stats. It's interesting. Well done.
 
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#7
#7
Hacksaw said:
Record after 5 games:
2017 -- 3-2
2018 -- 2-3
Click to expand...

I have no doubt that if we didn't play West Virginia this year, and played Georgia Tech instead, we'd be 3-2. West Virginia was the worst possible match up for a secondary that was made up of guys like Alontae Taylor and Bryce Thompson. That game throws the stats way off, because we will not see another passing attack like that, except maybe Missouri, and even that isn't the same level.
 
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#8
#8
TNHopeful505 said:
So, I just wanted to look at the numbers from this year through 5 games, and last year, 5 games. Figured I'd break down what I found and try to draw some conclusions. Basically, this is how I wasted my morning instead of doing nursing school homework. Keep in mind, our first 5 games last year (GT, Indiana State, Florida, UMass, Georgia) and our first 5 this year (WV, ETSU, UTEP, Florida, UGA) are what I factored in. Here's what the numbers say!

Passing Attempts:
2017 - 161
2018 - 106
Change: 55 fewer passing attempts in 2018.

Passing Completions:
2017 - 88
2018 - 66
Change: 22 fewer completions in 2018.

Completion Percentage:
2017 - 54%
2018 - 63%
Change: +9% in completion percentage in 2018

Passing Yards:
2017 - 979
2018 - 914
Change: 65 fewer yards in 2018.

Passing TD's:
2017- 7
2018 - 5
Change: 2 fewer passing TDs in 2018

Rushing Attempts:
2017 - 160
2018 - 209
Change: 49 more rushing attempts in 2018

Rushing Yards
2017 - 688
2018 - 891
Change: 203 more rushing yards in 2018.

Rushing Yards Per Attempt:
2017 - 4.42
2018 - 4.06
Change: -0.36/yard per carry in 2018

Rushing TD's:
2017 - 8
2018 - 10
Change: 2 more rushing touchdowns scored in 2018.

Total Plays Ran:
2017 - 321
2018 - 315
Change: 6 fewer plays ran in 2018

Total Yards Gained:
2017 - 1667
2018 - 1805
Change: 138 more yards gained in 2018.

Avg. Yards Per Play:
2017 - 5.1
2018 - 5.68
Change: 0.58 more yards gained per play in 2018.

Passing 1st Downs:
2017 - 44
2018 - 37
Change: 7 fewer first downs gained by passing in 2018.

Rushing 1st Downs:
2017 - 37
2018 - 43
Change: 6 more first downs gained by running in 2018.

Total 1st Downs:
2017 - 90
2018 - 91
Change: 1 more 1st down achieved in 2018.

Offensive Penalties:
2017 - 25
2018 - 28
Change: 3 more offensive penalties in 2018.

Offensive Penalty Yards:
2017 - 204
2018 - 215
Change: 11 more offensive penalty yards in 2018.

Fumbles:
2017 - 4
2018 - 7
Change: Jeremy Banks.

Interceptions Thrown:
2017 - 6
2018 - 3
Change: 3 fewer interceptions thrown in 2018.

Time of Possession:
2017 - Had ball 44.9% of game on average.
2018 - Had ball 51.2% of game on average.
Change - Had ball 6.3% more during game on average.

Punts:
2017 - 29
2018 - 26
Change: 3 fewer punts in 2018.
Defense:

Pass yards allowed:
2017 - 646
2018 - 913
Change: 267 more pass yards allowed in 2018

Pass TD Allowed:
2017 - 5
2018 - 8
Change - 3 more passing TD's allowed in 2018.

Rush Yds Allowed:
2017 - 1263
2018 - 759
Change: 504 fewer rushing yards allowed in 2018.

Rushing TD's allowed:
2017 - 11
2018 - 8
Change: 3 fewer rushing TD's allowed in 2018.

Defensive Penalties:
2017 - 30
2018 - 32
Change: 2 more penalties this year.

Defensive Penalty Yards:
2017 - 228
2018 - 235
Change: 7 more penalty yards in 2018.

Turnovers Forced:
2017 - 6
2018 - 5
Change: 1 fewer turnover forced in 2018.

Tackles:
2017 - 400
2018 - 283
Change: 117 fewer tackles in 2018.

Sacks:
2017 - 5
2018 - 9
Change: 4 more sacks in 2018.

TFL:
2017 - 32
2018 - 27
Change: 5 fewer TFL's in 2018

Points Scored:
2017 - 121
2018 - 130
Change: 9 more points scored in 2018.
Points Allowed:
2017 - 128
2018 - 128
Change: No change.

So, basically, what this tells me? There's improvement here.
  • Of the 6 turnovers that we forced by this time last year, 4 of those were by players that are no longer here. We already have 5 of them this year.
  • Of the 400 tackles we recorded last year, 175 (44%) of them were by players who are no longer here.
  • 925/979 of the passing yards were Quinten Dormady. JG and KC have 914 yards on 55 fewer attempts. Passing efficiency is much improved.
  • Of the 688 rushing yards, 494 of them (72%) were John Kelly. He is gone. And yet, between Chandler, Jordan, Banks, and whoever else, we have managed over 200 yards more than last year.
  • 6/8 rushing TDs on last year were JK. We already have 10 on the year.
  • If this team seems slightly familiar? It is.
    • Basically we have traded almost equally rushing attempts for passing attempts. 55 fewer passing attempts for 49 more rushing attempts.
    • We have traded fumbles and interceptions. We have 3 more fumbles than last year, and 3 fewer interceptions.
    • We are close to the same in penalties.
    • We are slightly less efficient in running the ball than we were last year (0.36 yards per carry less), but much better in our efficiency in throwing the ball (higher completion percentage as well as 2.7 yards more per completion).
    • We have allowed the exact same number of points total, just distributed it out differently.
    • We have traded pass success in defense for run success in defense. 267 more yards allowed through the air, and 504 FEWER yards allowed on the ground.
    • We have gotten off the field quicker, as evidenced by fewer tackles (117 less than last year), and a time of possession that has increased approximately 4 minutes more than last year.
  • Consider that all of this is coming with:
    • A new head coach.
    • A new offensive and defensive playbook and scheme.
    • A schedule that thus far as included 5 teams with a combined record of 17-7 (UTEP is 0-5), and 3 of those teams will likely be ranked this week.
    • Playing a team who has scored an average of 42.25 points per game, thrown for an average of 372 yards a game, and already 17 passing TD's through 4 games. It's not like we're the only ones they've lit up.
    • A QB who barely played at this point last season, 3 RB's who barely played at this point last season, and yet our passing efficiency and run game is better than it was last year.
    • Losing: Cam Sutton, Gaulden, Moseley, Justin Martin, McKenzie, McDowell, Jumper, John Kelly, who accounted for a large amount of our offensive and defensive production.
  • And yet...
    • We have not allowed more points than we did last year, even with a lot of newcomers in the secondary and a new scheme.
    • We have significantly stopped the run better than last year, an absolute MUST in the SEC.
    • We have almost equalled the number of turnovers forced from last year.
    • We have scored 9 more points.
    • We have compiled 138 more yards than this point last year.
  • I just can't say we are worse like many people are. We lost a lot of players, and yet, the numbers seem to point to the fact that we are performing more efficiently and even better in some areas, despite playing a tougher schedule through the 1st 5 games.
Just wanted to share these numbers with you. Improvement is coming, and is showing. I believe in this team after looking at the numbers. We have some work to do, but we are going to get there.

GBO!
Click to expand...
Couple of things you left out

2017 QB was new with virtually no game time experience.
2017 OC was also new and unproven..Coincidentally much like the 2018 OC he had no business being in that role.
 
#9
#9
GetYouSomeofThat said:
Couple of things you left out

2017 QB was new with virtually no game time experience.
2017 OC was also new and unproven..Coincidentally much like the 2018 OC he had no business being in that role.
Click to expand...

Dormady is currently 2/5 on the season for 8 yards for Houston. I think it's pretty safe to say that it wouldn't have mattered how much game time experience QD had, he just wasn't the QB we (or houston) needed him to be.

2017 OC was butch jones. Just like the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 OC was Butch Jones. Didn't matter who called the plays, it was Butch's offense.
 
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#10
#10
Also I do believe our quality of opponents is a little different. I think WVA is top 15 of course Georiga top 2, probably a better Florida team than last year. Plus two lesser opponents. Don't really know how to put them against last years easier teams. I think we are better than last year but didn't have to come far to do that. I believe we have a better staff than we have had in a long time. We will see. Great work OP.
 
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#13
#13
Great research OP. I know we're on the right track. CJP has the correct mindset... Just need to give him time to implement it all. Not all about the optimistic approach on everything typically.... Didn't care much for Butch. Jeremy has our boys in the right path. Just hope that he can pull everything together.
 
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#15
#15
I looked at some numbers early this morning and we're last in the SEC in pass attempts. That needs to change going forward. We ain't running the ball the next few games so we need to stop wasting downs
 
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#20
#20
Didn't Ga. Tech hit us up for a huge amount of rushing yds. last year? That statistic made us look worse than we really were for a long time. We were bad against the run last year anyway.
 
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#21
#21
tbones0711 said:
Didn't Ga. Tech hit us up for a huge amount of rushing yds. last year? That statistic made us look worse than we really were for a long time. We were bad against the run last year anyway.
Click to expand...

If you take out the Ga Tech game, then we still gave up an average of 225 yards per game.

With it, we averaged allowing 251 yards per game. Gave up 2 TD's on the ground average per game. 2.5 average with Ga Tech.

I have a feeling that WVU will be our Ga Tech this year.
 
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#22
#22
VinylVols said:
That rushing D though. That's huge.
Click to expand...
Georgia rushed for 294 last year against us and only 251 this year. Cade Mays obviously sucks. Seriously though, I was proud of the way our guys fought yesterday. I would be tempted to call for an upset against Auburn if their greatest strength (DL) wasn't set to square off against our greatest weakness.
 
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#24
#24
FLVOL_79 said:
+9% increase in pass completion %?!?! WOOOOOOOOOHHHOOOOOOO! JG gonna lead the team out of the darkness!!
Click to expand...

Dunno about you, but if I get a 9% interest rate increase on my credit card, I'm ticked.
And if I get a 9% raise at work, I'm over the moon.

9% may not seem like a lot, and maybe it's only 5 passes or something...but what if those 5 passes were the 5 touchdown passes? Then all of a sudden that 9% is a bigger deal.
 
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#25
#25
By the way, here's another little fun tidbit.

So, we have thrown the ball 55 times less than we did last year. And yet, we've only thrown for 66 yards LESS than we did last year.

Meaning, that in order to equal it up, and have the same amount of attempts and yards as last year, Guarantano would need to throw 55 passes for 1.2 yards each. If he did that, THEN we would have the exact same passing performance as last year.

And in order for last year's team to catch us rushing? They'd have to run the ball an additional 49 times. And each and every play, they'd need to get an average of 4.25 yards just to make it even.

So, our efficiency is definitely up.

What has killed us? Playing a WVU team (that has scored an average of 42.5 points on every team they've played) with a inexperienced defensive backfield.

Costly turnovers vs. Florida that gave them a short field and allowed them to put points on the board quickly.

Costly turnovers vs. Georgia that turned into points. Also some really crappy refs who missed some blatantly obvious targeting calls that should have given us some first downs and ejected some of their players, but...nobody's bitter.

Turnovers. We are managing the TOP well. We are running at over 4 yards a carry. We are completing nearly 65% of our passes. We are running better than we were last year. We are throwing it better than we did last year.

But we are still shooting ourselves in the foot. Hold on to the football, take care of the football, and we are not a bad football team. We're going to struggle, and we're going to get beat a lot. But, we are going to trend upward. I like what I'm seeing. Better numbers in 2018 against better competition than we had in 2017.
 
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