Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#4,476
#4,476
RiotVol said:
So, for fun (and to develop a predictive model for gambling), I ran a multiple linear regression on a bunch of variables, and the best model for predicting last year’s Sagarin rating (which factors in strength of schedule) were the 247 talent composite, the amount of returning offensive yards, and athlon’s preseason coaching rankings (after I regressed the rankings against the talent composite to strip out the effect of talent on coaching). Those three variables explained about 70% of the variability.

But...those three variables are not equal equal. By far the most important is talent, then to a lesser degree returning production, and then coaching.

Now ,that isn’t to say that I think coaching doesn’t matter. It clearly does. However, I think it’s difficult to quantify, and I think the effect is asymmetrical. My hunch is that good coaching can steal you a game or two above your talent level, while bad coaching can cause the floor to fall out well below where your talent would predict.

When 247’s talent composite comes out, it shouldnt take me long to generate a ranking for all of the teams. We should compare notes. I’d be interested to see close our results are.
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I'm only going to assume you are rich, because that is a lot of time with on analysis.......
 
#4,477
#4,477
JRVFL said:
Per DeerPark, the number outlines (smoky grey, not black) are only on the white practice jerseys this year, because the white game jerseys were approved by the previous staff and are already in retail production, and Nike won’t allow any discrepancy between on the field and retail. However, expect the (smoky grey) outline to be back on white road jerseys next year.
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The outlines are definitely black. They wear Smokey grey shorts and the outlines are 10x darker.
 
#4,481
#4,481
cHiZzLeVOL said:
TKJ would be interesting for the Star position.
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I'm not sure TKJ is athletic enough for what they want out of the Star. In one of the practice reports it said he has to play perfect mentally because he's not athletic enough to cover up any mistakes, and that doesn't seem like a guy you want guarding a slot in man
 
#4,482
#4,482
BJHSVol said:
I'm not sure TKJ is athletic enough for what they want out of the Star. In one of the practice reports it said he has to play perfect mentally because he's not athletic enough to cover up any mistakes, and that doesn't seem like a guy you want guarding a slot in man
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I could see him in the dime/money position. Pretty sure that's usually an oversized SS/ undersized LB type in Pruitt/Saban's defense.
 
#4,483
#4,483
BJHSVol said:
I'm not sure TKJ is athletic enough for what they want out of the Star. In one of the practice reports it said he has to play perfect mentally because he's not athletic enough to cover up any mistakes, and that doesn't seem like a guy you want guarding a slot in man
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TKJ is plenty athletic. You don't get 8 INTs over 3 seasons without being athletic. It's speed everyone is questioning. Time will tell if he's gained a step or two by losing that unnecessary weight.
 
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#4,484
#4,484
BJHSVol said:
I'm not sure TKJ is athletic enough for what they want out of the Star. In one of the practice reports it said he has to play perfect mentally because he's not athletic enough to cover up any mistakes, and that doesn't seem like a guy you want guarding a slot in man
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Alabama defense 101: nickel = Star, dime = Money, DBs = LBs

This is a good article explaining the "star and money" positions at least for Saban. It's a little older so may not be exactly the same but at least gives a good base of the thought process.

Saban looks for certain qualities in a Star.

“You can be a really good Star and not have the long speed to be a good corner,” he said. “Long speed being that if a guy runs a takeoff on you, you have to run and not get out run when the ball is in the air.

“If you have really good quickness and cover ability, the slot guy (receiver) has a hard time beating you in that position, because he's closer to the safeties, he's closer to the middle of the field. So a good tackler, a good blitzer, a good cover guy on a slot player, which is different than a good cover guy on an outside player.”

Money is a hybrid linebacker. He has some responsibilities defending against the run.

“It helps that the guy's a little bit bigger and physical, because sometimes he has to cover a tight end, which is a bigger guy,” Saban said. “But he also, unless you change personnel, has to be good enough to do the same things that the Star does.”
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So like the article says, there will probably be a few different guys for each position depending on scenario. Nigel may be the star and bring in the 3rd best safety sometimes. Or Shamburger just slides into the star and leave Nigel at safety. I think that explains why a lot of the nickle type guys have been working a lot at safety so they can be somewhat interchangeable.

It's also why I think guys like TKJr and Reid could get looks at the money position, because they both kinda seem like SS/LB hybrids that could be good in run D and cover TE's.
 
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#4,485
#4,485
Rishvol said:
TKJ is plenty athletic. You don't get 8 INTs over 3 seasons without being athletic. It's speed everyone is questioning. Time will tell if he's gained a step or two by losing that unnecessary weight.
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Add in he's lived with knee injuries for much of his time. That weight loss should help that as well.
 
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#4,487
#4,487
JimmyH might really deserve to be laughed at here but he thinks McBride is in the QB race. He quotes Canada as saying McBride is better than JG
 
#4,488
#4,488
Nick Saban’s Alabama Pass Coverages

This is a really good breakdown of Saban's pass coverage concepts. It's a really long article but I enjoyed it. As someone who never played organized football, a lot of times this kind of breakdown goes over my head. But this guy does a very good job of explaining it where even I could understand it conceptually. It's based on coverage responsibilities, not positions but he does a good job of explaining those. Pruitt may not run the exact same defense but I believe it will be based on these concepts.
 
#4,493
#4,493
BruinVol said:
JimmyH might really deserve to be laughed at here but he thinks McBride is in the QB race. He quotes Canada as saying McBride is better than JG
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McBride might have been better fit for their read option offense but not thenpro style. I wouldnt have thought that during recruiting but JG is def better suited to be a pro style QB that can run instead of a run QB that can throw like dobbs.
 
#4,500
#4,500
WarMachine said:
Oh, and wow, nice work Freak! The new website design is totally wicked.
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giphy.gif
 
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