Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#4,453
#4,453
BJHSVol said:
Fitzpatrick was the best DB at Bama and he slid over to Star in certain packages. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a similar situation with Warrior
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There were some reports yesterday that there was a time or two where we had 3 true safeties on the field (IIRC, in a Dime package). Given some of Pruitt's comments about figuring out ways to get the best 11 guys on the field, it wouldn't surprise me if they like one of our safeties more than some of our CBs as a nickelback or dimeback.
 
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#4,454
#4,454
Someone asked o/u 1.5 commitments in August and the answer given was under.

When pressed, they didn't expect anyone else to commit this month.

--

Also noteworthy, there was a question about the lack of attrition after the coaching change, and the speculation was Pruitt couldn't afford to lose a bunch of people his first year. Suggested that we might see some people transfer out after the season.
 
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#4,455
#4,455
TL:dnr #WGWTFA (if we can get some production)

Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall ranks teams every year using his S&P+ methodology. The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting.

From Football Study Hall:

Recruiting is easy. I create a rating based on these two-year recruiting rankings. The recruiting-based projection makes up about a quarter of the overall S&P+ projection.
ScreenHunter_01 Aug. 06 22.57.gif
​

Multi-year recruiting rankings: Penn State and Miami are joining elite company

For returning production, I apply projected changes (based on each team’s returning offensive and defensive production, which are on different scales) to last year’s S&P+ averages. The projection based on returning production accounts for a little more than 50 percent.

Continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn’t have as strong an impact.

The main takeaways are similar to last year: Disruption and continuity in the secondary are key. And the ability to get hands on passes is harder to replicate than any other.

So what does this mean for 2018? As with last year, I used categories like the ones above, weighted for largest effect — so returning quarterbacks, receivers, and defensive backs carry more heft — to create numbers for offense and defense.

ScreenHunter_02 Aug. 06 22.57.gif​

2018 CFB returning production rankings: Clemson’s ready. Who else?

For recent history, I get a little weird. I found last year that the previous year’s S&P+ ratings — which make up the starting point for the returning production figures — were carrying a little too much weight. So what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history now carries less weight in the overall formulas, under 20 percent.

ScreenHunter_03 Aug. 06 22.57.gif​

Ranking 128 college football teams from 2013 through 2017

Enough talk. Here are the preliminary projected S&P+ rankings for 2018.
Projected 2018 S&P+ rankings (as of Feb. 9)


ScreenHunter_05 Aug. 06 23.12.gif
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2018’s projected 130-team rankings, from Ohio State through UTEP
 
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#4,460
#4,460
Catbone said:
Troy and Wyoming are ahead of us in the S&P lol
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Returning production is the key in his analysis so I was looking at who we have returning that didn't play last year that may impact his numbers.

TKjr leads all DBs with 8 career interceptions - I don't think anyone else has more than 2.
Jauan Jennings at WR
DKjr at LB

I think in his recent preview of our team this year he indicated he would not be surprised to see us finish this year ranked in the top 50.
 
#4,461
#4,461
BJHSVol said:
Fitzpatrick was the best DB at Bama and he slid over to Star in certain packages. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a similar situation with Warrior
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This. Star I think is closer to a nickel/ safety and the dime/ money is closer to ss/lb. I bet warrior being our best db means he is a safety in base and star in nickle and dime like Minkah. And the bring in another safety when he moves to star. Tkjr and Reid could be money position.
 
#4,464
#4,464
amazingGRACE said:
Long time no talk boys. Hope y’all are all still living the dream. I do have one question of importance though..

Is the black outline here to stay orrrrr?
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Per DeerPark, the number outlines (smoky grey, not black) are only on the white practice jerseys this year, because the white game jerseys were approved by the previous staff and are already in retail production, and Nike won’t allow any discrepancy between on the field and retail. However, expect the (smoky grey) outline to be back on white road jerseys next year.
 
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#4,465
#4,465
butchna said:
Heard TKjr’s name as well as Nigel Warrior. Not believing they take Warrior away from safety. Shannon Reid was an early name. It’s a pretty vital part of Pruitt’s defenses, so we should see it pared down to realistic candidates by this week imo.
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TKJ would be interesting for the Star position.
 
#4,471
#4,471
My wife wanted Becca to pick Blake. At least with Bachelor in Paradise there are lots of hot chicks in bikinis all day.
 
#4,472
#4,472
ChattaTNVol said:
TL:dnr #WGWTFA (if we can get some production)

Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall ranks teams every year using his S&P+ methodology. The preseason S&P+ projections are a simple mix of three factors: recent history, returning production, and recruiting.

From Football Study Hall:

Recruiting is easy. I create a rating based on these two-year recruiting rankings. The recruiting-based projection makes up about a quarter of the overall S&P+ projection.

Multi-year recruiting rankings: Penn State and Miami are joining elite company

For returning production, I apply projected changes (based on each team’s returning offensive and defensive production, which are on different scales) to last year’s S&P+ averages. The projection based on returning production accounts for a little more than 50 percent.

Continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn’t have as strong an impact.

The main takeaways are similar to last year: Disruption and continuity in the secondary are key. And the ability to get hands on passes is harder to replicate than any other.

So what does this mean for 2018? As with last year, I used categories like the ones above, weighted for largest effect — so returning quarterbacks, receivers, and defensive backs carry more heft — to create numbers for offense and defense.


2018 CFB returning production rankings: Clemson’s ready. Who else?

For recent history, I get a little weird. I found last year that the previous year’s S&P+ ratings — which make up the starting point for the returning production figures — were carrying a little too much weight. So what you see below is a projection based solely off of seasons two to five years ago. Recent history now carries less weight in the overall formulas, under 20 percent.


Ranking 128 college football teams from 2013 through 2017

Enough talk. Here are the preliminary projected S&P+ rankings for 2018.
Projected 2018 S&P+ rankings (as of Feb. 9)

2018’s projected 130-team rankings, from Ohio State through UTEP
Click to expand...

So, for fun (and to develop a predictive model for gambling), I ran a multiple linear regression on a bunch of variables, and the best model for predicting last year’s Sagarin rating (which factors in strength of schedule) were the 247 talent composite, the amount of returning offensive yards, and athlon’s preseason coaching rankings (after I regressed the rankings against the talent composite to strip out the effect of talent on coaching). Those three variables explained about 70% of the variability.

But...those three variables are not equal equal. By far the most important is talent, then to a lesser degree returning production, and then coaching.

Now ,that isn’t to say that I think coaching doesn’t matter. It clearly does. However, I think it’s difficult to quantify, and I think the effect is asymmetrical. My hunch is that good coaching can steal you a game or two above your talent level, while bad coaching can cause the floor to fall out well below where your talent would predict.

When 247’s talent composite comes out, it shouldnt take me long to generate a ranking for all of the teams. We should compare notes. I’d be interested to see close our results are.
 
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#4,473
#4,473
LA Vol said:
CJP's a no-nonsense kind of guy. He's not going to play politics, pander to the media, get caught up in caring whether people like him or vow to build a fence around the state because that's what people want to hear. He's going out there and getting the best players he can get and finding ways to put his best players on the field, instead of sitting playmakers because they don't slide right into his scheme. Players aren't slacking because they respect him and his zero tolerance policy. He's a refreshing change and the kick in the pants this team needed. It feels like UT football could be fun again.
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#4,474
#4,474
The Dog said:
Yes, UT is going to miss Daniel. Other than Kelly and Gaulden, imo, Daniel is UTs biggest loss from last year.

I love Thompson and Murphy returning punts and at WR. Yes, I know Bryce is at DB right now, but I still want him at WR, so explosive with the ball in his hands.
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Id rather his explosion be catching an interception and taking it to the house .
 
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