7 of the 8 seasons prior to his arrival were below .300 in total wins, not just SEC. What he has done here is equivalent or better than what Franklin did at Vandy.
Not gonna act like I think Mullen is a home run or anything, but he'd be really solid IMO. Someone else was getting at the same thing before, but his winning % is .138 higher than the historical standard in Starkville (keep in mind this is over a stretch where the West has been consistently pretty strong, stronger than the East).
If he did somewhat similarly at UT, we'd be looking at a 9.5 win per regular season baseline. Personally, I'd be happy with that. If a team can hang around the 9-10 win range, there's always a chance of some bounces going their way and making a run. Of course, football doesn't always work out that neatly.
His overall record against ranked teams is troubling. His recruiting rankings aren't quite what you'd hope for (especially given some of the rumors concerning shady recruiting practices in Starkville over the past 5-6 years). But he does seem to get a lot of bang for his buck out of what he recruits. Averaging the 27th best in the nation and 9th or 10th (average came out at 9.55) in the SEC in recruiting, I'd expect a coach in the SEC West to closer to .500 than .600 overall.
I can get how some wouldnt be thrilled with a Mullen hire. Only way bringing him inspires a whole lot of hope for a title run anytime soon is if they somehow manage to finagle a big time DC to come along with him.
That being said, hes an upgrade to what weve got right now in just about every way and thats undeniable. Sure, hes only averaging about an extra win per season than Butch. However, an extra win last season puts us in a NY6 game. An extra win in 2015, if its against UF, puts us in Atlanta. If that win comes against pretty much any opponent we lost to in 2015 besides Arky, it changes how we all look back at that season in a big way.
If our past two seasons had finished with a trip to Atlanta in 2015 and a NY6 game in 2016, Id have been happy enough. I think most around here would have been as well. Of course Id rather get a Gruden, Stoops, or Kelly. But so would a lot of other teams who might have job openings in the next few weeks. And theres a pretty good chance 2 or more of those guys arent coaching CFB next year anyway.
I also like Fuente and Patterson more, but both those guys are in positions where they dont have a lot of motive to leave their current position any time soon. Fuente is in his 2nd year, looks to be a shoe in for a top 15 finish, and is at a spot that will put him under far less scrutiny than Knoxville. Patterson basically built what TCU is, is already making 4.75 million, and is looking at a likely top 10 finish.
So, IMO, the question becomes whether you go for the Dan Mullen type guy who can probably give us an 8-9 win baseline and a chance to get to Atlanta every 3-4 years or so or whether we go after a guy like Frost, Brohm, Morris, Houston, or Campbell (I know, I know, his buyout likely rules him out) who might have greater upside, but only have 2-3 seasons under their belt as HCs (or in Houstons case, only have experience at a much, much lower level of football).
Im a really, really big fan of Frost, but if I was in a theoretical position where both he and Mullen wanted to become our next HC and I was the one pulling the trigger, I cant say which way Id go TBH. As a fan, Id be happy with either, but for completely different reasons. Id have points of uncertainty with either as well.
I dont really know where Im going with any of this other than I think were gonna get a clear upgrade at HC and the world isnt ending if we miss out on Gruden, Patterson, or Kelly.