the numbers are interesting.
they're even more interesting with some context. i think our attrition rate is too high in general. however, when CBJ got here, he loaded up on the 1st couple of classes, knowing at least 1/3 weren't going to make it. just part of it. but he needed #'s regardless. the 2012 class in and of itself was a hodge podge, and really, considering the time spent, what we got was probably what we should have expected, as over 2/3 of that class experienced attrition.
as his tenure has gone on, the attrition rate seemingly hasn't slowed down, though the last two classes show to have settled down quite nicely, is that the start of another, better trend? time will tell.
but just looking at comparisons since CBJ has been hired, the overall attrition rate is 35%, tied for last in the SEC with USCe, with a&m next at 32.2%. EVERYONE else in the SEC is below 30%.
that said, it's not a coincidence that the bulk of the attrition came at the expense of CBJ's 1st two years here, where those two years combined are nearly 56%.
i wondered about the volume of signees, as some mentioned that we signed more than anyone else, so i just looked at all classes in the list LWS provided that had 30 or more signees. also no coincidence, those 30+ signee classes have way higher rates than the normal 22-26 signee type classes. virtually every school in the SEC that had these classes were at, near or above 50% attrition rates......except.........Tennessee, who had 3 such classes with an attrition rate of less than 30%, which is by far the best in the SEC, by nearly 20 points.
it should be noted that includes the 2015 class, so that # could change as time goes on.
Bama had 2 @53%
ARK 3 @ 49.5%
AU 2 @ 54.8%
FL had 0
GA had 2 @ 45%
KY had 1 @57%
LSU had 0
OM had 3 @ 48.5%
MSU had 2 @ 54.7%
MO had 0
USCe had 2 @ 46%
TN had 3 @ 29.8%
a&m had 1 @ 63%
Vandy had 0
what i get out of all this is we have experienced higher than normal attrition, but it does appear to be, to a certain extent, "normal" for programs transitioning, and those that have to sign large classes, just to get the overall depth up to par.
all that said, if the attrition rates stay where they are now, around that 24% range, then what we've seen the last two years, is probably more a result of transition, pure #'s, and just plain needing bodies early on, and not necessarily "how it's going to be".
but it's still fairly early for the 2015, and especially for the 2016 classes, so we should pay attention to see what, if anything transpires this season and next.
but there's absolutely no way we can stay at 35% and remain competitive for very long. it can't be perpetual rebuilding.
so, is it an issue? yes, it most certainly is. but i don't know that it's an issue that's going to continue to fester and manifest itself like it has the last 2 years, if current trends hold up over the next couple/three years.
