Also, let's get some action on this ARK / FL match-up. This is huge, and we could be right back in ATL, if things happen here.
1. Strength of Schedule: ARK has only lost to AL, A&M, and AU. All very good opponents, as we have seen. Auburn was within 6 of beating Clemson, and their only other loss is to A&M.
FL 6-1
ARK 5-3
Flip those schedules, and I think you flip those records. I still think Florida is fool's gold, and their only "quality victory" is KY, or if you choose to somehow think UGA counts. KY has also beaten no one of consequence.
2. Home Sweet Home: The game is in ARK, and I think ARK has a very good chance of stealing a win here. Florida has only played two true road games, @ TN, and squeaking a win out @ Vandy, 13-6.
3. Can Florida Run?: This is probably the key of the game. Auburn ran for over 500 yards... yes... over 500 yards, against Ark. Bama had 264, and A&M had 366... all losses.
Florida is only averaging 170 YPG on the ground. I'm not sure they can put up the numbers needed to get it done. Statistically, you need to run for a ton to beat ARK.
4. Air Florida: Do you think Del Rio is going to beat them through the air? Florida averages 260 YPG passing and Arkansas has allowed exactly the same amount of yards as TN through the air, 206.3 per game.
5. Break the defense: Per, the script. Florida is going to rely on the defense to last long enough for a victory. They do not want this to get into a high scoring affair, and turnovers may very well decide this one.
Austin Allen is expected to play, and has had huge games vs A&M and Bama, the toughest games on their schedule. He will need to bring the firepower to force Florida to try to attempt more on offense.
Bottom Line: I'm calling for the upset. A lot of "homer" in this post, but whatever. Arkansas is better than they appear, and Florida is worse than they appear. Homefield advantage throws the East back into an open contest.
FL 21
ARK 24