The real problem with the pass game is PLAYCALLING

#153
#153
VolFootballIsLife said:
FWIW...Dobbs may lead SEC in that category in total number but very well could be UT had more attempts from that range. Also, you're only touting 3rd and 7-9. There's quite a few other third down distances out there and his % on other downs do matter - it's just not bad play calling on 1st and 2nd that drive his numbers down.
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Dobbs also led the SEC in 3rd and medium (4-6 yards to go).

The only 3rd down category he didn't dominate was 3rd and super long (10+ yards).
 
#155
#155
UT-Rex said:
And P.Howard -- (certainly not blame, but) man I think we really missed his productiveness in '015.

54 for 618 yd in '014. Any stats, D4H, on how many of those were 1st down catches? Any stats as to how many drops PH had (prob few, would be my guess)?
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It was the "gotta haves" that we couldn't deliver. Sack fumble , interception, missed field goal, and on downs, offense has got to score when the game is on the line.

It have such a lead the pressure is off late in the game. Cruise to an easy victory.

Run the table Vols.
 
#156
#156
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Just look at these stats.

First Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 1st down pass attempts: 12th in the SEC

- 1st down completion %: 9th in the SEC

- 1st down passer rating: 12th in the SEC

Second Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 2nd down pass attempts: 5th in the SEC

- 2nd down completion %: 6th in the SEC

- 2nd down passer rating: 6th in the SEC

Third Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 3rd down pass attempts: 3rd in the SEC

- 3rd down completion %: 4th in the SEC

- 3rd down passer rating: 4th in the SEC

If our QB is the problem in the pass game, why do our passing stats go up the more times we attempt to pass as well as the tougher the passing down gets?

Individually on 3rd down, Dobbs was far and away the best QB in the SEC. He converted more 3rd downs than any QB in the SEC. Plus he finished tied for 16th overall in the country. Here are the numbers: cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

See the guy he's tied with? None other than everyone's heisman favorite for 2016.....Deshaun Watson. In 2 less games, Dobbs converted the same 48 first downs through the air as Watson. He completed a higher percentage of his 3rd down passes (55.4% vs. 52.6%). And he also threw 2 less interceptions (2 vs. 4) while Watson threw 3 more TDs (9 vs. 6).

All this is to say that the numbers show Dobbs isn't the problem with the pass game. On the toughest down to throw the ball (3rd down) he throws it with the best of the them. Our pass game really only struggled on 1st down. And mainly because we don't attempt that many passes.

Usually 1st down passes are the easiest to throw because they are the least likely to be anticipated by the defense. Its where a lot of the prolific passing teams like Ole Miss did their damage last year.

Josh Dobbs can be the best QB in the country. Its time for our coaches to stop shackling him on 1st down.
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Ok. So on 1st down you have 10 yards to reach another first down right? Say a pass play is called on first down and it gains 6 yards. On second down, a run play is called and it gains only 2 yards. Now its 3rd and 2. A nice little screen or even a quick slant can picked that up almost effortlessly. I mean come on man give it up. We all know Dobbs is good, he is just not an elite passer. He is great for us in our system. Why is that not enough for you?
 
#157
#157
BigOrangeTrain said:
Ok. So on 1st down you have 10 yards to reach another first down right? Say a pass play is called on first down and it gains 6 yards. On second down, a run play is called and it gains only 2 yards. Now its 3rd and 2. A nice little screen or even a quick slant can picked that up almost effortlessly. I mean come on man give it up. We all know Dobbs is good, he is just not an elite passer. He is great for us in our system. Why is that not enough for you?
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He has the potential to be an elite passer. Thats what these numbers show.

Coaching staff just needs to let him rip it.
 
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#158
#158
GAVol said:
Lol @ "seized with gusto". You can't take playcalls out of context. If the defense plays at all and makes any of about 3 or 4 4th down stops against Florida the strategy of running the ball and burning clock works out just fine.
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exactly, which is another reason we continued to run the ball....we were also trying to protect the defense.
 
#160
#160
Needs to get around 65%
 

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#161
#161
If you're going to be near the bottom of yards per attempt (meaning you throw shorter easier passes) you sure better be accurate. This could make or break us this year.
 

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#162
#162
Catbone said:
Needs to get around 65%
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in reality the different between 59.6% and 65% is 1.5 completions per game, given the same # of attempts.

so it's doable. that's basically going 19/28 per game. if he can average between 10-12 yard per completion :), i think that puts us where we need to be. but to do that, we're going to have to show we can stretch the field some.

more realistic is if he can get up from what is ypa is now to say 9 per game that's only 171 yard per game.

not exactly dynamic.
 
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#164
#164
jakez4ut said:
in reality the different between 59.6% and 65% is 1.5 completions per game, given the same # of attempts.

so it's doable. that's basically going 19/28 per game. if he can average between 10-12 yard per completion :), i think that puts us where we need to be. but to do that, we're going to have to show we can stretch the field some.

more realistic is if he can get up from what is ypa is now to say 9 per game that's only 171 yard per game.

not exactly dynamic.
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I agree. Those 1 or 2 extra completions could mean the difference in a first down and ultimately a win. I would bet that Dobbs try some more longer passes this year to get that ypa up too
 
#165
#165
Catbone said:
I agree. Those 1 or 2 extra completions could mean the difference in a first down and ultimately a win. I would bet that Dobbs try some more longer passes this year to get that ypa up too
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yeah, i think it's a fine line they have to walk....with that few att/game and at that comp %....it'll be tough to average more than 200 ypg....

i don't know that they are going to want to get the attempts per game over 30, and i think that's awfully high, and definitely the ceiling....so he's going to have to maximize the opportunities. if we have more than 30 att in a given game, i'd show you game that went off the rails severely....and we're playing from way behind.

i expect there to be a concerted effort for the passing game to be efficient, run the ball, and to definitely take some shots down the field....out of the 25-30 attempts i bet he gets/game, i'd say there has to be 5 or 6 legitimate shots down the field; 15+ yards...

i hate to say it, but the reality of the situation is this offense really will depend on whether or not Dobbs can get it done from the pocket, and make defense respect a down field passing attack.

i don't worry about the dink/dunk to RB's, or drags across the middle, i don't worry about getting TE's involved on seam routes etc...it's outside the numbers and timing routes....corner fades, curls, double move routes etc....

honestly though, the one thing we can't account for, and this may be the ace in the hole is his improv ability. i'm thinking kind of like a big ben from a few years ago....stay alive long enough and boom a big play. he's perfectly capable of that...
 
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#166
#166
Speaking of improv ability, reminds me a lot of Manziel just heaving it up. If Preston Williams or Jeff George can emerge as a Mike Evans, our passing game will be fine.
 
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#168
#168
jakez4ut said:
yeah, i think it's a fine line they have to walk....with that few att/game and at that comp %....it'll be tough to average more than 200 ypg....

i don't know that they are going to want to get the attempts per game over 30, and i think that's awfully high, and definitely the ceiling....so he's going to have to maximize the opportunities. if we have more than 30 att in a given game, i'd show you game that went off the rails severely....and we're playing from way behind.

i expect there to be a concerted effort for the passing game to be efficient, run the ball, and to definitely take some shots down the field....out of the 25-30 attempts i bet he gets/game, i'd say there has to be 5 or 6 legitimate shots down the field; 15+ yards...

i hate to say it, but the reality of the situation is this offense really will depend on whether or not Dobbs can get it done from the pocket, and make defense respect a down field passing attack.

i don't worry about the dink/dunk to RB's, or drags across the middle, i don't worry about getting TE's involved on seam routes etc...it's outside the numbers and timing routes....corner fades, curls, double move routes etc....

honestly though, the one thing we can't account for, and this may be the ace in the hole is his improv ability. i'm thinking kind of like a big ben from a few years ago....stay alive long enough and boom a big play. he's perfectly capable of that...
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On the other hand, it is quite conceivable that Josh’s pass attempts could go up by 2-3 per game without any modifications to playcalling whatsoever. I fully anticipate continued improvement from the offensive line by virtue of additional experience and, collectively, another year in the weight room. If pass protection improves to the point where Josh can stay in the pocket and squeeze off another 2-3 rounds per game on called pass attempts, as opposed to tucking it and running for the first down marker or sideline, that should allow time for more downfield passing routes to develop. As we all know, bad things tend to happen to defensive secondaries when experienced quarterbacks have the time to survey the field.
 
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#169
#169
I believe play calling isn't as good as it should be to be the top team in the SEC, but Dobbs could use some improvement as well-but what does CBJ's charts say to do......
 
#170
#170
Volosaurus rex said:
On the other hand, it is quite conceivable that Josh’s pass attempts could go up by 2-3 per game without any modifications to playcalling whatsoever. I fully anticipate continued improvement from the offensive line by virtue of additional experience and, collectively, another year in the weight room. If pass protection improves to the point where Josh can stay in the pocket and squeeze off another 2-3 rounds per game on called pass attempts, as opposed to tucking it and running for the first down marker or sideline, that should allow time for more downfield passing routes to develop. As we all know, bad things tend to happen to defensive secondaries when experienced quarterbacks have the time to survey the field.
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This here. If the Line can improve to give Dobbs and extra half second people wil lbe amazed at how much more accurate he is . The fact he won't be depending on a guy that runs a 4.8 as his lead WR might help also....the fact Jones announced Byrd as a WR speaks volumes on how much Separation was a problem with our WR's last year. I honestly think the biggest difference in those 4 games we lost was a kid that could not stop smoking the Mary Jane. Seriously it seems like every year lately we lose a kid over that thats a major producer dating back to JJ. And most of them are WR's
 
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#171
#171
first down play calling to open the 2015 Florida game..

Hurd 11 yard run.
Smith 6 yard catch.
Dobbs td reception.
Hurd 7 yard catch.
Screen pass to Jennings for no gain (was blocked fairly well, JJ picked wrong running lane imo). The ensuing third down saw Pearson drop a ball that hit him in the hands for what should have been an easy conversion.

This is just a small snapshot, but it shows Debord would come out in a huge road game and throw the ball on first down.

The passing game had protection problems, receivers who couldn't stay healthy or get open when they did suit up & accuracy issues at times. Everything could stand to get better. But I'm not ready to blame play calling for the passing game troubles. I think it starts with the offensive line improving and then Dobbs getting the ball out on time and in rhythm. If the wideouts catch it we'll have the type of explosive offense we all want.
 
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#172
#172
Volosaurus rex said:
On the other hand, it is quite conceivable that Josh’s pass attempts could go up by 2-3 per game without any modifications to playcalling whatsoever. I fully anticipate continued improvement from the offensive line by virtue of additional experience and, collectively, another year in the weight room. If pass protection improves to the point where Josh can stay in the pocket and squeeze off another 2-3 rounds per game on called pass attempts, as opposed to tucking it and running for the first down marker or sideline, that should allow time for more downfield passing routes to develop. As we all know, bad things tend to happen to defensive secondaries when experienced quarterbacks have the time to survey the field.
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Yes sir! Just another half second will give Dobbs the time he needs to chuck some of those deeper passes. When Williams is healthy on the field Dobbs and Dormady both have shown that they aren't afraid to launch one his way. They have a lot of confidence in him.
 
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