The real problem with the pass game is PLAYCALLING

[EZE]

Dobbs 4 Heisman= most delusional poster in Vol nation history.

Boy, I don't know. There is a lot of competition for that position. We might very well have some posters transferring out of VN for not making the 3-deep.

 

[utvolpj]

OP - your theory has a hole. You say 1st down is the easiest down to throw on bc it's least expected and its where Ole Miss does damage. So why does Dobbs stats look so bad on 1st down. You can't just say the plays are bad.

Probably because we only pass on predictable 1st downs. We need to make sure we're passing on unpredictable 1st downs instead

 

[jakez4ut]

the other thing i haven't seen mentioned in this thread, is the use of tempo. for this offense to really click, it's got to generate 1st downs.

and we weren't a good a good 1st down offense last year. and we were trying to protect a "thin" defense that wilted late in big spots. so we ran the ball. a lot and it worked.

this year, i don't think we'll have to be as concerned about protecting the defense, so i think that changes the mindset and play calling a little. i think we see more effort toward getting the tempo increased....i expect the 1st and 2nd down efficiency to perk up a bit on the whole.

 

[jbr82]

Debord and Dobbs need to put the ball in the middle of the field alot more imo. It was wide open many times last season.

 

[Remy]

It's not exactly odd to see a team run it 3 times trying to steal a first down and kill the clock in those late game situations. It's execution at that point.

We played close to the vest early because we had problems getting open and problems protecting. They playcalled based on what we could do; not based on what they necessarily wanted to do.

I love how everybody always knows what play to call after the game, as if the results would have been different with different calls. I mean, against Florida, the friggin QB ran for about 150 but could only throw for about 80. By the 4th quarter, they had a pretty good idea what wasn't working.

I like the same sort of reasoning promoting after the game is over as well since "they had a pretty good idea what wasn't working" to need to move the chains maintain possession and run the clock we do what wasn't working, go three and out, give them the ball and opportunity to win the game which both of those teams seized with gusto.

 

[KBVol]

D4H idk if you've noticed or not but we are a running team. That's why we run on 1st down instead of pass. We will mix it up from time to time but with the running attack we have there is more risk to passing on 1st down than running because we are so explosive on the ground. Dobbs doesn't have to throw for 3,000 yds he just needs to up that completion percentage 5 points and we will be unstoppable. Part of it is inaccuracy and part of it is our receivers had blocks for hands last year. I for one think the receivers will improve because we are going to see a steady dose of PW on the outside and he some of the best hands in the country. That will only improve the completion percentage. For the most part, the play calling was very good on offense last year.

Why do people say things like "our receivers had blocks for hands last year"? Maybe I'm "misremembering", but I don't recall a lot of dropped balls....at all. I can think of Wolf's dropped ball in the endzone vs Georgia I think and Malone's dropped ball vs SCar that was a sure TD. But who else? What else? I remember Smith dropping a short slant route, but that's about it for him. When did our guys drop all these footballs that people reference?

Our WRs weren't good at getting separation, at running after the catch (part of that was Dobbs' inaccuracy in not hitting guys in stride) at getting behind the defense. But someone please help me remember all the drops that our WRs supposedly had, because I honestly don't remember them.

 

[VonVol]

You must have missed my earlier post where I proved this theory to be FALSE.

Read em and weep: cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

- When it came to getting 1st downs when it was 3rd and long (7-9 yards to go), Dobbs was 5th in the nation (and 1st in the SEC by a wide margin) with 16 first downs completed through the air.

Next we can check how many of those SEC leading 16 first downs completed on 3rd and long (7-9 yards to go) went to RBs.

Here's Jalen Hurd: cfbstats.com - Jalen Hurd 2015 Player Statistics - Tennessee Volunteers

And Alvin Kamara:cfbstats.com - Alvin Kamara 2015 Player Statistics - Tennessee Volunteers

So only 4 first down completions on 3rd and 7-9 yards went to Hurd and only 1 went to Kamara. A grand total of 5 of Dobbs SEC leading 16 first down completions on 3rd and 7-9 yards went to RBs in dump offs and screen passes.

That's less than 33%!!!

So please stop with the false narrative that Dobbs dominance in completing first downs through the air on 3rd and long is the result of dump offs and screen passes to Kamara and Hurd.






PS: I think you were confused by the stats. I'm not simply touting Dobbs completion % on 3rd down. I'm touting his ability to get 1st downs. Sure completion % on 3rd down doesn't matter if you only get 5 yards on 3rd and 7. The goal is to get past the sticks.

Well what the stats are saying is that Dobbs is ELITE at converting 1st downs when it's 3rd down (regardless of the distance). So your argument that these numbers don't matter is irrelevant. I'm not touting his completion percentage. I'm touting his ability to convert 1st downs.

Are you aware that not all screen passes are caught by running backs?

 

[GAVol]

I like the same sort of reasoning promoting after the game is over as well since "they had a pretty good idea what wasn't working" to need to move the chains maintain possession and run the clock we do what wasn't working, go three and out, give them the ball and opportunity to win the game which both of those teams seized with gusto.

Lol @ "seized with gusto". You can't take playcalls out of context. If the defense plays at all and makes any of about 3 or 4 4th down stops against Florida the strategy of running the ball and burning clock works out just fine.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Are you aware that not all screen passes are caught by running backs?

Just stop it.

We did not consistently throw WR screens on 3rd and long.

Whether you want to face the facts, Josh Dobbs is the best QB in the SEC at converting first downs through the air on 3rd down. All the numbers prove it.

You're grasping at straws right now.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

The real question is, who will D4H root for after Dobbs leaves? After all, he's a confessed bandwagoner, and apparently he's more Dobbs fan than Vol fan.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Just stop it.

We did not consistently throw WR screens on 3rd and long.

Whether you want to face the facts, Josh Dobbs is the best QB in the SEC at converting first downs through the air on 3rd down. All the numbers prove it.

You're grasping at straws right now.

Are you speaking to a mirror?

 

[VolFootballIsLife]

You must have missed my earlier post where I proved this theory to be FALSE.

Read em and weep: cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

- When it came to getting 1st downs when it was 3rd and long (7-9 yards to go), Dobbs was 5th in the nation (and 1st in the SEC by a wide margin) with 16 first downs completed through the air.

Next we can check how many of those SEC leading 16 first downs completed on 3rd and long (7-9 yards to go) went to RBs.

Here's Jalen Hurd: cfbstats.com - Jalen Hurd 2015 Player Statistics - Tennessee Volunteers

And Alvin Kamara:cfbstats.com - Alvin Kamara 2015 Player Statistics - Tennessee Volunteers

So only 4 first down completions on 3rd and 7-9 yards went to Hurd and only 1 went to Kamara. A grand total of 5 of Dobbs SEC leading 16 first down completions on 3rd and 7-9 yards went to RBs in dump offs and screen passes.

That's less than 33%!!!

So please stop with the false narrative that Dobbs dominance in completing first downs through the air on 3rd and long is the result of dump offs and screen passes to Kamara and Hurd.






PS: I think you were confused by the stats. I'm not simply touting Dobbs completion % on 3rd down. I'm touting his ability to get 1st downs. Sure completion % on 3rd down doesn't matter if you only get 5 yards on 3rd and 7. The goal is to get past the sticks.

Well what the stats are saying is that Dobbs is ELITE at converting 1st downs when it's 3rd down (regardless of the distance). So your argument that these numbers don't matter is irrelevant. I'm not touting his completion percentage. I'm touting his ability to convert 1st downs.

FWIW...Dobbs may lead SEC in that category in total number but very well could be UT had more attempts from that range. Also, you're only touting 3rd and 7-9. There's quite a few other third down distances out there and his % on other downs do matter - it's just not bad play calling on 1st and 2nd that drive his numbers down.

 

[Remy]

Lol @ "seized with gusto". You can't take playcalls out of context. If the defense plays at all and makes any of about 3 or 4 4th down stops against Florida the strategy of running the ball and burning clock works out just fine.

Dude, take it up with Einstein who promoted the concept doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result defines insanity.

 

[VolsRGood]

Peyton would be a great OC!

 

[Volosaurus rex]

FWIW...Dobbs may lead SEC in that category in total number but very well could be UT had more attempts from that range. Also, you're only touting 3rd and 7-9. There's quite a few other third down distances out there and his % on other downs do matter - it's just not bad play calling on 1st and 2nd that drive his numbers down.

As a matter of fact, your first assertion is correct. When stats for this particular situation are sorted by attempts, Josh was tied for third nationally with 35. His next closest SEC competitors are Coker (Alabama) with 30 (tied for 16th) and Towles (UK) with 26 (tied for 34th) (cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders). Conversely, if you sort these stats by completion pct. (cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders), Josh drops down to 70th (51.4%). His actual stat line for that down-and-distance scenario was 18-35 for 307 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

If you really want to cite someone who excelled under these circumstances, look at Connor Cook (Michigan State); he completed 24-34 (70.6%) for 422 yards, 4 touchdowns, no interceptions and a nation-leading 21 first downs (cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders). This information is not provided as a criticism of Josh Dobbs but serves, instead, to illustrate the danger of cherry-picking statistical data to support a preconceived agenda.

 

[jasonvol18]

The great thing about the website cfbstats.com is I can call you out on BS like this.

Dobbs actually led the SEC in converting 3rd and medium (4-6 yards) as well as 3rd and long (7-9 yards) last season.

On plays of 3rd and 4-6 yards to go - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

- Dobbs was #1 in the SEC with 18 convertions (5 more than the second closest player Dak Prescott).

- Dobbs was 3rd in completion %.

On plays of 3rd and 7-9 yards to go - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Player Leaders

- Dobbs was once again #1 in the SEC with 16 convertions (5 more than the second closest player once again).

- Dobbs was 6th in the SEC in completion %.


You don't convert 34 3rd downs between 4-9 yards from screen passes. Give credit where credit is due. On 3rd downs, Dobbs balled out last year.

Actually that's not true..You can convert 3rd down between 4-9 yards on screens all day,every day. Anybody that watched every one our games and actually paid attention would know that.Take away screen passes and those jet sweeps when he tosses it forward I guarantee his passing % was no better than 53-55%. Like Butch said early on in his Vol career they use those plays as an extension of the run game. I'm more prone to look at where our passing offense ranked, which was 92nd in the country or maybe passing yards per completion where we ranked 85th. Or maybe passing offense which was 92nd. So you can't just throw out one set of numbers to defend a player you must include every one of them. Numbers do not lie, our passing game was dismal last year. Yes play calling played a factor in that but some of that was Debord being somewhat limited on what he could call because of Dobb's accuracy issues,inability to go deep and at times was prone to turn the ball over. We were very fortunate last year with the dropped it's against Dobb's and I ran out of fingers to count how many fumbles he had last year. He was very fortunate on both of them. Also throw in dropped passes and injuries we somehow figured out a way to win 9 games. If we can get some resemblance of an intermediate and deep passing game we will be a nightmare for opposing defense's. We will already have one of the top 3-4 rushing attacts in the conference and throw in the size and speed we have already have on campus and what will be here in the next month I can't imagine any QB not wanting to throw to those guys..GBO!!

 

[OHvol40]

Everyone wants our team to be perfect at everything and that isn't reality. Reality is we are a disciplined, physical offensive team that takes care of the football and can execute an average passing attack when needed. We run the ball extremely well and that is ultimately what will win games for us.

When Dobbs, Hurd, and Kamara are gone and our personnel changes, our offensive identity may change. Until then, we will pound teams into submission, reduce our turnover ratio, and lean on our special teams and defense to put pressure on our opponents.

Personally, I like this formula. I think we win and win big this year with it.

 

[musolfmj]

Yep, that's right. Everybody knew that when Jerry Kramer and Fuzzy Thurston pulled that Lombardi had called the Packer sweep again (and again, and again) and yet it worked. He had the horses to make it work. So even though Bart Starr was no Johnny Unitas, the Packers marked their territory in NFL legend. I think we have some pretty fair horses this year.

 

[tonybologna]

Everyone wants our team to be perfect at everything and that isn't reality. Reality is we are a disciplined, physical offensive team that takes care of the football and can execute an average passing attack when needed. We run the ball extremely well and that is ultimately what will win games for us.

When Dobbs, Hurd, and Kamara are gone and our personnel changes, our offensive identity may change. Until then, we will pound teams into submission, reduce our turnover ratio, and lean on our special teams and defense to put pressure on our opponents.

Personally, I like this formula. I think we win and win big this year with it.

Great post buddy. :good!:

 

[GAVol]

Dude, take it up with Einstein who promoted the concept doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result defines insanity.

It's also insane to assume that whatever you did differently would have yielded a different result... or at least insanely egotistical.

 

[KBVol]

The defense allowed so many 4th down conversions. Imo it is apparent that they were the reason UF and OU got back into the game. It's why we have Shoop now. Had it been as you say we would not have hired him. To me, the offense played well enough but not the defense.

1. Could've sworn you had me on ignore

2. Please notice in my post to which you responded, I said "I'm not disagreeing with you, our 4th down defense was atrocious last year".

3. My post was meant to emphasize the idea that there is a symbiotic relationship between the offense and defense.

While our defense failed many, many times last year as the worst 4th down defense in the country, our offense failed many, many times as well when the Oklahoma and Florida games were on the line as well....and just a few more key plays here and there in the 4th quarters of each game very likely changes the outcomes of said games and the need for the defense to get a 4th down stop never even materializes. A few examples.....

Oklahoma game....

-we led 17-3 late in the 3rd after an interception of Mayfield......after that pick at the Oklahoma 29, our offense went backward....3 plays for NEGATIVE 11 yards.

-after punting to OU, they went 80 yards in 14 plays, making the score 17-10.......our offense responded with a 3 play, 3 yard drive, eating up all of 2:14 off the clock before punting

-after punting again, OU then romped over our defense going 60 yards in 13 plays, game was tied.....our offense has :40 to do something, to maybe get in fg range....it responded with a 2 play drive for -2 yards.

-in the second half, which began with us leading 17-3, went ran 34 offensive plays for 53 total yards in regulation. That's not holding up your end of the bargain and "helping your defense".

We know that OU scored the game-tying TD with :40 left. How might the outcome have been different if our offense had taken some pressure off our defense, which played very, very well until the last two 4th quarter OU drives, and gotten a couple more first downs at any point in the second half?

If they had, that leads to at least 6 more offensive plays, eats up 5-6 minutes of game clock, and OU doesn't have time to do anything late in the 4th, much less score the game-winning TD on a 5:26 drive.


Florida game.....

-look at the 2nd half possessions....they played out like this.....

1. After opening the 2nd half with a nice drive and getting a field goal, and our defense getting off the field quickly on Florida's next drive, Dobbs fumbles deep in our own territory, gives Florida a short field and they score a TD.

2. How did our offense respond after that Florida TD on the next offensive series? 3 plays for negative 3 yards

3. After our defense stepped up and got off the field after 3 plays, each team scored/traded TDs on long drives. So, after Florida's TD drive, score 27-21, how did our offense respond?? 3 plays for ZERO yards.

4. Of course, we know what happened next....Florida scores in :52 seconds.....

So, what happens if rather than running 3 plays for 0 yards, we get a first down or, GOD forbid, 2 first downs? We win the game and that awful, gut-wrenching, ridiculous 4th down conversion/game-winning TD for Florida never happens.

So again, yes, I agree that our defense was atrocious on 4th down last season and, had they done their job better in both the OU and Fla games that could've/would've won. I'm just saying that if our offense had done its job in some of those key spots as well, that the defense never would've been put in those positions to fail like they did. Each unit plays/feeds off each other...and they BOTH failed, not just the defense.

 

[VonVol]

Just stop it.

We did not consistently throw WR screens on 3rd and long.

Whether you want to face the facts, Josh Dobbs is the best QB in the SEC at converting first downs through the air on 3rd down. All the numbers prove it.

You're grasping at straws right now.

Never once did I say we did consistently. But you are throwing numbers out there that aren't entirely accurate. And I'll stop it when I'm good and ready.

You must be as good at reading as you are at breaking down film.

 

[Catbone]

D4H you're so wrong again. Dobbs accuracy IS the problem. Now be quiet.

 

[UT-Rex]

3 questions for D4H, about the GA game '015 (and I know we scored with :30 remaining, however):

1. With 1:10 to go in the 2nd qtr, was that td pass intended for Josh Smith, or VPearson?
2. Who caused the fumble on the ensuing kick-off?
3. With :55 to go in the 2nd, on the pass 1st Down and 10 (play 1) to the endzone, do you think that was a smart throw into that quadruple coverage, or was that perhaps simply an inaccurate/ thrown-behind receiver pass?
And #4: What might have been the outcome (on that play), had Dobbs chosen to simply dump the ball off to wide-open Hurd, instead of throwing into quadruple coverage, on FIRST down?
And #5: On the opening drive of 3rd Qtr, on 3rd and 16 with zone coverage -- was that a bad OC play call / combined with a poor 17 yrd run route , or, possibly an under-thrown pass?

I'm all for Dobbs in 2016 / very confident he will lead us far, but I'm just looking at your stats in a smaller sample.

 

[Remy]

It's also insane to assume that whatever you did differently would have yielded a different result... or at least insanely egotistical.

My whole point was then and is now running the ball on first down in a percentile >70%, especially late in the game when it was not working, not getting first downs needed to maintain possession to win the game played directly and with gusto into the opposing DC's hands. The net result twice was it directly aided in OU and UF beating us. The more we went past that 70% running template on first down we built late in the game when it was not working the more insane it became and the results are now in the history books. Doing what we did failed doing something else may or may not have failed we'll never know. If you have issues take it up with Einstein.