The real problem with the pass game is PLAYCALLING

#101
#101
wmcovol said:
4th down defense was the issue guys.
Click to expand...

Po-tay-toe, po-tah-toe IMO.

Not being able to convert just one more first down to salt the game away vs Florida hurt us just as much as not being able to stop Florida on that 4th & 14 IMO. Similarly, if our offense converts another first down or two vs Oklahoma we win. Also, if we bear down and find a way to drive and score on our last possession vs Bama, we would've pulled the huge upset there.

I'm not disagreeing with you, our 4th down defense was atrocious last year....words can't describe how bad it was, and if we'd only been below average we would've had a special season that culminated with a trip to Atlanta in December and possibly much more. Just saying that the offense didn't always hold up its end of the bargain and if it had, we would never have even seen the 4th down collapses.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#102
#102
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Then you have more faith in Butch Jones than I do.

Coming from a guy who showed such in game ineptitude against Florida last year, I wouldn't trust him to know how to put our players in the best position to succeed.

Much like Jancek shackled our defense on 3rd and longs by using a spy, Butch has shackled the offense by not letting Josh rip it more on 1st down.
Click to expand...

LOL so why do you think the coaches passed less on first and second down? Just trying to keep a black QB down?You really don't think it had anything to do with the fact that our running game was much better than our passing game and that they had more faith in it?

The easiest, most likely explanation is that things just weren't clicking well in the passing game all season, so they went the safe route and did what the team did do well (run the ball and attack the edges with Dobbs/Hurd/Kamara).

Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
The key stat to look at is pass attempts. The more times we pass, the higher Dobbs completion percentage gets versus his peers.

For example, we're 12th in pass attempts on 1st down and only 9th in competition % on first 1st down. On 2nd down we're 6th in pass attempts and 6th in completion %. And finally on 3rd down, we're 3rd in pass attempts and 4th in completion %.

The trend line is pretty clear. Dobbs gets more accurate the more passes he throws. I've always said Josh is a rhythm passer. Remember how bad he looked to start the Georgia game? Then by the 2nd half he found a rhythm and then went on to have one of the best games in the SEC last year.

Let Josh throw the ball more and he gets more accurate. That's what the numbers say.
Click to expand...

The numbers don't back that up at all, really. Especially not when you look at the Arkansas game and chart his incompletions. He threw the ball more than 30 times in 4 games. Two of those were his worst passing games of the season (Arkansas and OU).

Ever heard of confirmation bias? It's what you're doing by cherry picking stats and claiming that "numbers don't lie" and thus your conclusions are correct. I'm not sure if you're doing it on purpose or if you are actually just really bad with numbers and stats.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#103
#103
MSME Vol said:
Ainge talked about this a few weeks ago on RTI radio. One of his key points was that we also averaged 6 yards a run on first down. Hard to argue for passing more if you do that with consistency.
Click to expand...

I'll take 6yd/carry on 1st down all day long.....who wouldn't?
 
#104
#104
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
These 3rd down stats show Dobbs is no average passer. He's an extremely talented passer who has the potential to be a lot more productive if the coaches let him.
Click to expand...
I think if you'd just shackle your subjectivity, D4H, you'd derive some more reasonable conclusions regarding your angst with CBJ's play calling (and whichever others on his staff you're calling out). Certainly you'll agree that a coach isn't going to call plays that hadn't worked so well in practice. What's in those stats to indicate that Monday through Friday's horribly executed pass plays will somehow, miraculously work on the subsequent Saturday? Certainly, also, you remember the ridiculous injury train wreck that hit our receiving corps like a hydrogen bomb. Deep routes with SEC-type tight coverage requires lots and lots of practice.....lots and lots. I think most of us agree with your sterling assessment that Dobbs may well be the best quarterback in the SEC. Don't give up on the stats. But do, though, pay better attention to replays of some of Mister Dobbs' very sad looking attempts at deep routes. Minus a similar repeat of our WRs missing more reps than they practice, let's figure the long ball completions will re-appear this year. The throw game's going to arise from the ashes, and maybe-just-maybe your D4H moniker will be celebrated until sportsdom's oblivion (I DID say "maybe"). Please tell me, though. What's going to happen with your disdain for CBJ's game managing acumen? Let's figure that CBJ's drive to improve his own game includes an even swifter climb up the learning curve, the nads to replace old pals to kick up the coaching staff's effectiveness, toughening the schedule to demonstrate UT's prominence as a NC contender, and, seriously, give the man proper credit for the masterful construction of a bona-fide SEC powerhouse. I'm sure ol' Josh appreciates your admiration, but try to lighten up on the man he'd angrily stand up for if he happened to hear your disdain for CBJ's coaching abilities. AMIRIGHT?
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#105
#105
D4H idk if you've noticed or not but we are a running team. That's why we run on 1st down instead of pass. We will mix it up from time to time but with the running attack we have there is more risk to passing on 1st down than running because we are so explosive on the ground. Dobbs doesn't have to throw for 3,000 yds he just needs to up that completion percentage 5 points and we will be unstoppable. Part of it is inaccuracy and part of it is our receivers had blocks for hands last year. I for one think the receivers will improve because we are going to see a steady dose of PW on the outside and he some of the best hands in the country. That will only improve the completion percentage. For the most part, the play calling was very good on offense last year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#107
#107
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Just look at these stats.

First Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 1st down pass attempts: 12th in the SEC

- 1st down completion %: 9th in the SEC

- 1st down passer rating: 12th in the SEC

Second Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 2nd down pass attempts: 5th in the SEC

- 2nd down completion %: 6th in the SEC

- 2nd down passer rating: 6th in the SEC

Third Down - cfbstats.com - 2015 Southeastern Conference Team Leaders

- 3rd down pass attempts: 3rd in the SEC

- 3rd down completion %: 4th in the SEC

- 3rd down passer rating: 4th in the SEC

If our QB is the problem in the pass game, why do our passing stats go up the more times we attempt to pass as well as the tougher the passing down gets?

Individually on 3rd down, Dobbs was far and away the best QB in the SEC. He converted more 3rd downs than any QB in the SEC. Plus he finished tied for 16th overall in the country. Here are the numbers: cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

See the guy he's tied with? None other than everyone's heisman favorite for 2016.....Deshaun Watson. In 2 less games, Dobbs converted the same 48 first downs through the air as Watson. He completed a higher percentage of his 3rd down passes (55.4% vs. 52.6%). And he also threw 2 less interceptions (2 vs. 4) while Watson threw 3 more TDs (9 vs. 6).

All this is to say that the numbers show Dobbs isn't the problem with the pass game. On the toughest down to throw the ball (3rd down) he throws it with the best of the them. Our pass game really only struggled on 1st down. And mainly because we don't attempt that many passes.

Usually 1st down passes are the easiest to throw because they are the least likely to be anticipated by the defense. Its where a lot of the prolific passing teams like Ole Miss did their damage last year.

Josh Dobbs can be the best QB in the country. Its time for our coaches to stop shackling him on 1st down.
Click to expand...

Shackling him? Priceless. Quit using Dobbs for your agenda.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#108
#108
GAVol said:
I've never quite figured out what's wrong with predictable when nobody stops you.
Click to expand...
Perhaps you didn't notice our 4th quarter 3 n outs vs OU and Florida for instance last season?
 
#109
#109
OP - your theory has a hole. You say 1st down is the easiest down to throw on bc it's least expected and its where Ole Miss does damage. So why does Dobbs stats look so bad on 1st down. You can't just say the plays are bad.

I can easily argue we throw less in 1st down because a) we had a dominant run game that put us in manageable downs and b) Dobbs' inaccuracy- highlighted by the poor completion percentage you posted - put us in holes on 2nd down thus fewer pass plays called.

Also, you ask why his numbers go up as he throws more in later downs; the answer is - as another poster mentioned - a lot of those are dump offs, screens, and the D will give you completions on 3rd down short of the sticks.

These stats have no relevancy in Dobbs' accuracy issues. Not to be a jerk, but you always talk about the tape you watch...well, it's obvious to most he is not that accurate just by watching the game.

Look, he's not terribly inaccurate; it's just that his issues in that area hold him back from taking the next step. Even NFL scouts note his issues. It's something he needs to improve upon. That's all.
 
#112
#112
jakez4ut said:
i think most agree with this. but it's the assertion from OP that none of the passing game woes are due the fact Dobbs isn't the most accurate passer, and that for the passing game to improve, all of the above you mentioned AND Dobbs improving have to happen.

OP suggests that everything EXCEPT dobbs needs fixed.
Click to expand...

Not true. I've always said Dobbs needs to improve. He did miss some easy throws last year. But he also made a ton of tough throws (which many here like to ignore).

I just believe that he's the least of our worries in the pass game. If I had to rank the blame I would go:

1. Bad playcalling
2. Lack of sepraration by WRs
3. Bad protection by the o-line









and at a distant 4th place.....


4. Inaccurate throws by the QB
 
Last edited:
#115
#115
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Cosign.

Butch Jones was badly outcoached last year in those games.

Hopefully he's learned his lesson.
Click to expand...

I think that you enjoy making irrational emotional comments that do not contain one ounce of truth nor actual knowledge and are not based on reality. I'm amazed that you only got 2 likes.
 
#116
#116
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Not true. I've always said Dobbs needs to improve. He did miss some easy throws last year. But he also made a ton of tough throws (which many here like to ignore).

I just believe if he's the least of our worries in the pass game. If I had to rank the blame I would go:

1. Bad playcalling
2. Lack of sepraration by WRs
3. Bad protection by the o-line









and at a distant 4th place.....


4. Inaccurate throws by the QB
Click to expand...

You left out drops.

Jump higher Vols.
 
#117
#117
KBVol said:
Po-tay-toe, po-tah-toe IMO.

Not being able to convert just one more first down to salt the game away vs Florida hurt us just as much as not being able to stop Florida on that 4th & 14 IMO. Similarly, if our offense converts another first down or two vs Oklahoma we win. Also, if we bear down and find a way to drive and score on our last possession vs Bama, we would've pulled the huge upset there.

I'm not disagreeing with you, our 4th down defense was atrocious last year....words can't describe how bad it was, and if we'd only been below average we would've had a special season that culminated with a trip to Atlanta in December and possibly much more. Just saying that the offense didn't always hold up its end of the bargain and if it had, we would never have even seen the 4th down collapses.
Click to expand...

The defense allowed so many 4th down conversions. Imo it is apparent that they were the reason UF and OU got back into the game. It's why we have Shoop now. Had it been as you say we would not have hired him. To me, the offense played well enough but not the defense.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#118
#118
Remy said:
Perhaps you didn't notice our 4th quarter 3 n outs vs OU and Florida for instance last season?
Click to expand...

It's not exactly odd to see a team run it 3 times trying to steal a first down and kill the clock in those late game situations. It's execution at that point.

We played close to the vest early because we had problems getting open and problems protecting. They playcalled based on what we could do; not based on what they necessarily wanted to do.

I love how everybody always knows what play to call after the game, as if the results would have been different with different calls. I mean, against Florida, the friggin QB ran for about 150 but could only throw for about 80. By the 4th quarter, they had a pretty good idea what wasn't working.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#119
#119
Iam4utalways said:
You left out drops.
Click to expand...

And P.Howard -- (certainly not blame, but) man I think we really missed his productiveness in '015.

54 for 618 yd in '014. Any stats, D4H, on how many of those were 1st down catches? Any stats as to how many drops PH had (prob few, would be my guess)?
 
#120
#120
Can you imagine if Preston Williams beats his man on a go route/ jump ball situation down field early? opposing Defensive coordinators will now have to double, shade a safety to his side of the field, or at the least, it will be in every corner and safety on that side of the field that The University of Tennessee has a legitimate thoroughbred on the outside once again! The run game is not broken so obviously don't fix it! Oh, and what about flexing Kamara into the slot during preplay?? A LB on Kamara?? Georgia was burnt not once but twice on a simple throw to the flat to Kamara. This year Kamara will flex out and run a plethra of routes after being flexed out. Have fun with that...And what about that I formation we showed a glimpse of in the outback bowl last season? Hurd running downhill looked scary good. and if he does hit a crease while running down hill, I am pretty sure I just saw a video of him running 23.4 MPH at 6'4 240 lbs.... raise your hand if you want to tackle that? If you can first catch him, but look out for that other receiver we have named Jennings, because he we will clean knock your block off on special teams or any block down field where he has a chance to de-cleat you. Josh Smith will only get better with an expanded role of routes and positions they put him in, and I have to have faith that Malone will get better and play closer to his potential this year. Croom and Wolf at TE?? :mf_surrender: Perry, George, Callaway, and Byrd will add a sprinkle of athelticism to our Offense as well. There is not one opposing Coach in the country that will sleep sound the week of the Tennessee game. You can only prep a team so much, and we have more than so much that we are capable of deploying.:machgun: Here's how I look at it. Tennessee will be bringing an assault rifle with a belt full of extra clips to reload, to a knofe fight where only plastic cafeteria knives are allowed.:machgun:...and thats my 2 and half cents my fellow Vol Nation. This year will be a special one on the Hill! Go Vols, and have a wonderful Friday!
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#121
#121
It's really simple man, when you can run block and play smashmouth, run the rock, ball like we did last season then you RUN the ball!

It would be dumb to throw passes and risk turning the ball over lots more when we have a running game as strong as we had last season.

Smashmouth, pound them down and wear them out and control the clock ball is what can WIN Championships.

We now have the D and the D coordinator that CAN stop the other team from putting points on the board so our brand of pounding down the other team with running and wearing out their D by keeping their D on the field lots longer is a Winning plan.

Just 1 good D play and we beat Oklahoma, exactly the same situation against the Gators and the roll turd boys.

3 good D plays and we would have had 3 more Wins, been in Atlanta and then no telling what might have happened then.

Relax, our coaches and players have got this now.

They KNOW what they can accomplish this season, no doubt about it.

WIN by WIN, Team 120 will earn their shot at a Championship...VFL...GBO!!!
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#123
#123
VolFootballIsLife said:
OP - your theory has a hole. You say 1st down is the easiest down to throw on bc it's least expected and its where Ole Miss does damage. So why does Dobbs stats look so bad on 1st down. You can't just say the plays are bad.

I can easily argue we throw less in 1st down because a) we had a dominant run game that put us in manageable downs and b) Dobbs' inaccuracy- highlighted by the poor completion percentage you posted - put us in holes on 2nd down thus fewer pass plays called.

Also, you ask why his numbers go up as he throws more in later downs; the answer is - as another poster mentioned - a lot of those are dump offs, screens, and the D will give you completions on 3rd down short of the sticks.

These stats have no relevancy in Dobbs' accuracy issues. Not to be a jerk, but you always talk about the tape you watch...well, it's obvious to most he is not that accurate just by watching the game.

Look, he's not terribly inaccurate; it's just that his issues in that area hold him back from taking the next step. Even NFL scouts note his issues. It's something he needs to improve upon. That's all.
Click to expand...

You must have missed my earlier post where I proved this theory to be FALSE.

Read em and weep: cfbstats.com - 2015 National Player Leaders

- When it came to getting 1st downs when it was 3rd and long (7-9 yards to go), Dobbs was 5th in the nation (and 1st in the SEC by a wide margin) with 16 first downs completed through the air.

Next we can check how many of those SEC leading 16 first downs completed on 3rd and long (7-9 yards to go) went to RBs.

Here's Jalen Hurd: cfbstats.com - Jalen Hurd 2015 Player Statistics - Tennessee Volunteers

And Alvin Kamara:cfbstats.com - Alvin Kamara 2015 Player Statistics - Tennessee Volunteers

So only 4 first down completions on 3rd and 7-9 yards went to Hurd and only 1 went to Kamara. A grand total of 5 of Dobbs SEC leading 16 first down completions on 3rd and 7-9 yards went to RBs in dump offs and screen passes.

That's less than 33%!!!

So please stop with the false narrative that Dobbs dominance in completing first downs through the air on 3rd and long is the result of dump offs and screen passes to Kamara and Hurd.






PS: I think you were confused by the stats. I'm not simply touting Dobbs completion % on 3rd down. I'm touting his ability to get 1st downs. Sure completion % on 3rd down doesn't matter if you only get 5 yards on 3rd and 7. The goal is to get past the sticks.

Well what the stats are saying is that Dobbs is ELITE at converting 1st downs when it's 3rd down (regardless of the distance). So your argument that these numbers don't matter is irrelevant. I'm not touting his completion percentage. I'm touting his ability to convert 1st downs.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#124
#124
I'd like to see Hurd utilized in the passing game more than he has been. Also, the devlopment of a go to possession receiver [maybe Josh Smith] would be nice.
 
#125
#125
D4H- How did Dobbs' total pass completion percentage rank against QBs in the SEC/nation (for all downs)? Additionally, I'd be interested to see his completion percentages against individual opponents. Were his stats boosted against the likes of Western Carolina and North Texas?
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top