volprof
Destroyer of Nihilists
- Joined
- Oct 26, 2011
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It appears to me (and I have nothing to back it up) that Putin struck a deal a few months back. NATO stays hands off in Ukraine and in exchange Russia will not get involved in Syria.
You could be right. That's just as plausible as any other reasonable explanation. One thing that is clear is that Russia is not going to get involved and has giving up on Assad.
My personal opinion is that Putin and company realized a year or so ago that Assad and Syria are hopeless cases. I know you don't always agree with me on the cynical nature of Russian foreign policy (and I know the US can certainly do such conniving things as well, as history shows), but I think they're now hoping the situation, since it's hopeless for their former guy, will keep escalating and entangling competitors like the US, Turkey, and (to a lesser extent) Iran. Like the article I linked suggests, this not only serves Russian energy purposes as best as possible, given the circumstances with world markets, but also keeps those other three, particularly the US, occupied and distracted. As long as Russia's way station in Syria, and I'm not even sure how important it really is to them, is not necessarily threatened, I think Russia is pretty content to just sit back, watch Syria burn, and let everyone else in the world waste their resources on it. One things for certain: Russia damn sure ain't doing anything to help. It's really a smart move, when you think about it, particularly from a country under sanctions.
Now, the support for ISIS and other ME terrorists, that gets much hairier and fuzzier, but I wouldn't put it past Putin, or any Russian leader for that matter. It's pretty much obvious to anyone looking that Putin was willing to kill his own countrymen (400 of them) to start the Second Chechen War and give him the popularity he needed to win the upcoming presidential election (he had been polling at around 3 or 4 percent before the events I speak of occurred). Why wouldn't he send militants to Syria, a country he's obviously given up on, despite Ras's bewilderment? Of course he would.
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