Recruiting Forum: Football Talk XV

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I was thinking the same watching it tonight. Just doesn't seem authentic.

I agree. The award and some of the winners have been tainted so many times, not the least of which is the made for TV aspect of it with ESPN pulling the strings (as usual). That in no way disparages the three great players up for the award. It's all the rest of it.
 
Now that the semester is over, I had some fun with running some regressions based on recruiting and actual wins/loss.

https://dshanemiller.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/yes-virginia-recruiting-stars-do-matter-2014-edition/

For those of you who don't want (or have time) to read, I used an average of the last four classes recruit rankings and ran that against Sagarin's rankings (which factors in strength of schedule).

Two-thirds of the variation in wins/losses can be predicted by recruiting success.

slide2.jpg


I then used the residuals to pick out the under- and over-achievers for this year.

slide4.jpg



Also, Tennessee's Sagarin Rank was 29, and recruiting average was 14.
 
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Now that the semester is over, I had some fun with running some regressions based on recruiting and actual wins/loss.

https://dshanemiller.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/yes-virginia-recruiting-stars-do-matter-2014-edition/

For those of you who don't want (or have time) to read, I used an average of the last four classes recruit rankings and ran that against Sagarin's rankings (which factors in strength of schedule).

Two-thirds of the variation in wins/losses can be predicted by recruiting success.

slide2.jpg


I then used the residuals to pick out the under- and over-achievers for this year.

slide4.jpg

Very interesting. I can't believe your results though because Georgia is not on the underachievers list.
 
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Now that the semester is over, I had some fun with running some regressions based on recruiting and actual wins/loss.

https://dshanemiller.wordpress.com/2014/12/14/yes-virginia-recruiting-stars-do-matter-2014-edition/

For those of you who don't want (or have time) to read, I used an average of the last four classes recruit rankings and ran that against Sagarin's rankings (which factors in strength of schedule).

Two-thirds of the variation in wins/losses can be predicted by recruiting success.

slide2.jpg


I then used the residuals to pick out the under- and over-achievers for this year.

slide4.jpg



Also, Tennessee's Sagarin Rank was 29, and recruiting average was 14.

That's hella interesting bro. +1
 
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