golfballs
Mostly Peaceful Poster
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This seems like the most likely scenario.
He left out the most likely scenario:
Police are legally allowed to discharge their firearm in such circumstances and in most cases follow procedure. Therefore it's extremely rare to indict a police for doing so.
btw, FiveThirtyEight is Nate Silver's outfit. They of all people should be well aware of human bias. Which seems to be on display in this article.
