Why Are We Underdogs?

#27
#27
BleedinOrange98 said:
Think about this, before the season started the perception was that the Vols sucked so the WVU line was meant to reflect that. And WVU still covered. Which means the Vols were even worse than Vegas's perceived image of them.

The vols have been very disappointing in the last 15 years. Until they beat someone of substance convincingly and consistently, this stank won't come off. And it probably shouldn't. Take off the orange tint and join us in reality for a minute.
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My definition of "Reality" the way you are using it, is somewhere in between where you are in general and where he is.
 
#29
#29
If the line is less than 7, it's a tossup.

That being said, given our history, we tend to lose to Florida, even when we have pretty good teams.

Vegas only cares about the cash, it's nothing personal.
 
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#31
#31
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
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Because we've beaten them about 5 times in the last 30 years or so... maybe. Pruitt is an unknown commodity. Our roster is still filled with Butchpuss.
 
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#35
#35
because to Vegas...WE ARE TENNESSEE...doesn't mean what it used to...:)

GO VOLS...BEAT GATORS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
#36
#36
Longsufferingvol said:
I've been asking the same question. We lost to a highly ranked team with a Heisman candidate at QB in a neutral site game, and they lost by double-digits to Kentucky at home. Both teams are 2-1 and beat up on the teams they should have beat up on. People keep talking about Florida's defense as a reason they will beat us. My question is what defense? The defense that Kentucky ran all over? I just dont see it.... Tennesseee should win Saturday.
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Don't sell Ky. short. Have you watch them. They are pretty big, pretty fast, pretty well coached, and are playing pretty well. Makes them a pretty good team to me.
 
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#38
#38
Matt2496 said:
Historical precedent. That's why.
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this. the betting line isn't about who they think is going to win. it's about who they think people will put money on, and then trying to get even money on both sides of the line. it opened at, what, 7? and has moved down. so that tells you that joe public has been putting their money on TN to at least cover.

i'm fine with FL being favored on the road. hope that puts a little extra in to preparation. the whole "back against the wall"..."us against the world"..."no one believes but us" schtick.
 
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#39
#39
savannahfan said:
Don't sell Ky. short. Have you watch them. They are pretty big, pretty fast, pretty well coached, and are playing pretty well. Makes them a pretty good team to me.
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People don't want to believe it
But they're a good team this year.
They have 2 QBs who can hurt you. And all of you mentioned above.

They play Texas A&M on 10-6.
Kentucky is talented enough to beat them
 
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#40
#40
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...
 
#42
#42
Well Tennessee has fielded the better team the last 4 seasons in this game. However, UT is 1-3 in those games coupled with a long losing streak before that. So unless you are an UBER HOMER, it should be perfectly clear why most people not wearing orange give a slight advantage to the water lizards. But having said all that, now since we have a coach that doesn't have to refer to a freaking score chart before he makes a decision to go for two or not, I think things will be a little different this time around.
 
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#43
#43
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
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VolGirl1126 said:
I think he looks totally weird. Just saw him interviewed a few minutes ago.
Click to expand...
vavolfan6 said:
Currently, the line is in favor of Florida by 4.5 points..Considering the 3 point home-field advantage calculated into the spread, this would mean toe-to-toe on a neutral field Vegas thinks Florida is 7.5 points better than us?

Am I the only one who is baffled by this?

The local media (WMML Radio) is giving Florida the slight advantage as well. Yet, many claim that, head-to-head, we fare better when comparing positional groups with each other. Also, it has been noted that we have executed our game plan better so far this season, but we are still picked against...?

WHY?!?!

No one seems to give a good reason as to why THIS YEARS team isn't as good as Florida's. This game has gone down to the wire the last few years with only a last second play being the difference, and yet as the home team we're not even favored?

With the way this series has gone in the past and the fact we are in a rebuilding process, I get that many want to set expectation's low as not to get their hopes up. BUT, while we may very well lose, heading into the game we SHOULD be favored to win. We are playing at HOME in NEYLAND! Home field advantage makes a huge difference in these types of games! We have the better roster! Our QB is better! We are showing signs of improvement! We have executed bettter!

Excuse me while I go and place a bet..
Click to expand...


I am a Realtor...Bet the house..There seems to be too few homes for sale these days.
 
#44
#44
It must be a computer error.....
The Vols are the better team....
No doubt about it.......
 
#45
#45
History has a way of defining you one way or another depending on its consistent repetitions. Until we reverse this reality, Vols fan shouldn't even be questioning our underdog role.
 
#47
#47
Longsufferingvol said:
I've been asking the same question. We lost to a highly ranked team with a Heisman candidate at QB in a neutral site game, and they lost by double-digits to Kentucky at home. Both teams are 2-1 and beat up on the teams they should have beat up on. People keep talking about Florida's defense as a reason they will beat us. My question is what defense? The defense that Kentucky ran all over? I just dont see it.... Tennesseee should win Saturday.
Click to expand...
I’m with you on this. The best offense we played is arguably one of the best offenses in the nation, and the best they have played is Kentucky. Yet our total defense ranks nearly 30 spots better than their’s.
 
#49
#49
The betting line is of little consequence to me...being the favorite or the underdog doesn't win or lose the game. Seems like we play better in close games when we are the underdog. I don't know if we are ready quite yet, but if we are, it will be fun to sit in Neyland tomorrow night. And I think our playbook will definitely be expanded so that will work in our favor. If our big guys on both sides of the ball will get mean and football nasty we will beat the Gators to the tune of something like 27-17. Just thought I would let everyone know how I feel today.
 
#50
#50
BleedinOrange98 said:
Mm that's now how this works
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How so? Larger spreads are less often covered, but even in not covering the spread, Vegas still predicted the winning team. The smaller the spread, the more likely that a team will cover, but the lower the probability. The betting line is sitting at -4.5 right now, meaning Vegas gives Florida a ~63% chance to win this game. It's not a coin toss, but that's not a good bet to take either if you want to maximize your winnings.
 
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