Why Are We Underdogs?

#78
#78
vavolfan6 said:
This was my point. I don't think many are actually breaking down the two teams, comparing them head-to-head, considering other such as we are playing at home, at night, on a night where we are honoring the 98 championship team,
Click to expand...
The fact that we are honoring the 98' champs will have zero impact on the game. We honored Peyton at halftime of last year's GA game and that was the worst performance I have ever seen in Neyland.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KBVol
#80
#80
OrangeByBirth said:
If you wager enough the line will change. Go over the top with a MegaMillions lottery check on the game and the Vols will suddenly be the favorite.
Click to expand...

Finally, a post that seems to show an understanding of how and why gambling lines are established and change.
Does everyone understand that gambling lines are set so as to get all betting dollars distributed as close to equal on both sides as can be done? I has nothing to do with who the odds-makers think will win and by how much.
 
#81
#81
unfrozencvmanvol said:
The fact that we are honoring the 98' champs will have zero impact on the game. We honored Peyton at halftime of last year's GA game and that was the worst performance I have ever seen in Neyland.
Click to expand...

I beg to differ. It counts for something, which while may not make a difference in us playing a Georgia or Alabama, it certainly can help us in a game this close. The crowd should be amped up an extra notch. Their presence, from individual players, has already been felt in Knoxville as many of them are making various cameo appearances across the city, bringing extra hype and attention into the game. They will be around all day tomorrow. I'm sure some will speak to the players..and I would imagine there will be promos during the game about them which will only amp up the fans....In the end it may be miniscule in the grand scheme of things, but all we do is need things to go in the right direction and this crowd will have an effect, no doubt.
 
#82
#82
We are where it counts in the trenches. That’s it. The FL oline is not good but we cant take advantage because our DLine isn’t good enough, yet. Hopefully FL QB doesn’t improve this week, and we can shake him.

I see the game as very even. If we have an advantage it is JG. I am hoping our receivers have enough speed to beat the pass D.

WVU is a good team. They did catch us early making the match up worse for us.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KBVol
#83
#83
BigOrangeTrain said:
OP, maybe you should ask why should we be favored?
Click to expand...

I've already answered that. I think we have the better overall team. We have executed better so far. We have better talent at the skilled positions. JG>Franks...and its not close. I like our running backs much better. Chandler can break one big.

While Offensive Line hasn't been very bright, I trust are coaching staff to strategize around this deficiency, unlike previous staffs. Pruitt is honest and understands the situation. The coaching staff can do alot of different things to cover up this weakness. Additional blockers, quick and short yardage passing plays, screens, heavier commitment to the run, power running formations, play action, bootleg passing, etc....The key is we can't let JG be a sitting duck.

But even then, I don't see Franks outplaying JG in Neyland. All we have to do is to have JG be the better QB tomorrow at home, protect the football, and have our running backs play complimentary football.

Defense has been consistent and solid. WV was a rough game on the stat sheet, but it was our first game with a new coach playing against an experience offense with a Heisman candidate QB. Many times we were in the right position to make a play, but either a step away or a great athletic play by the WV receiver.

Though lacking at pass rush, the crowd's energy could add some extra adrenaline and is always a plus for the defense. Additionally, Florida doesn't feel very confident in the O-Line either as a unit. Lastly, Franks isn't a 50% percentage passer and pressure or not he misses wide open guys. While our lack of pass rush will be punished in other SEC matchups this year, I don't think it will hurt us as much. Plus, I trust Pruitt to compensate.

All in All, I see us as the better overall team. The only way I actually see Florida gaining an advantage and beating us if they catch a break in special teams where they have made some splash plays so far this year. Otherwise, I haven't heard any arguments for why THIS year's Florida's team will beat THIS year's TN team. All I keep hearing is how we will lose the game, not how Florida will beat us. Everyone is pointing to past performances, the "Florida curses', and just overall negativity...just blah. I'm taking TN
 
#84
#84
esarmstrong said:
Finally, a post that seems to show an understanding of how and why gambling lines are established and change.
Does everyone understand that gambling lines are set so as to get all betting dollars distributed as close to equal on both sides as can be done? I has nothing to do with who the odds-makers think will win and by how much.
Click to expand...

I think everyone understands that. Yet, there has to be enough people buying Florida as a 4.5 favorite as not drive the spread any closer. The fact that there are enough people buying that side and not Tennessee, is baffling to me. The general consensus set by the market, giving Florida a 4.5 point advantage in Neyland, says that they have the better team. I say this because it is widely accepted that there is about a 3.0 cushion in favor of the home team that calculates its way into the spread.
 
#85
#85
vavolfan6 said:
I've already answered that. I think we have the better overall team. We have executed better so far. We have better talent at the skilled positions. JG>Franks...and its not close. I like our running backs much better. Chandler can break one big.

While Offensive Line hasn't been very bright, I trust are coaching staff to strategize around this deficiency, unlike previous staffs. Pruitt is honest and understands the situation. The coaching staff can do alot of different things to cover up this weakness. Additional blockers, quick and short yardage passing plays, screens, heavier commitment to the run, power running formations, play action, bootleg passing, etc....The key is we can't let JG be a sitting duck.

But even then, I don't see Franks outplaying JG in Neyland. All we have to do is to have JG be the better QB tomorrow at home, protect the football, and have our running backs play complimentary football.

Defense has been consistent and solid. WV was a rough game on the stat sheet, but it was our first game with a new coach playing against an experience offense with a Heisman candidate QB. Many times we were in the right position to make a play, but either a step away or a great athletic play by the WV receiver.

Though lacking at pass rush, the crowd's energy could add some extra adrenaline and is always a plus for the defense. Additionally, Florida doesn't feel very confident in the O-Line either as a unit. Lastly, Franks isn't a 50% percentage passer and pressure or not he misses wide open guys. While our lack of pass rush will be punished in other SEC matchups this year, I don't think it will hurt us as much. Plus, I trust Pruitt to compensate.

All in All, I see us as the better overall team. The only way I actually see Florida gaining an advantage and beating us if they catch a break in special teams where they have made some splash plays so far this year. Otherwise, I haven't heard any arguments for why THIS year's Florida's team will beat THIS year's TN team. All I keep hearing is how we will lose the game, not how Florida will beat us. Everyone is pointing to past performances, the "Florida curses', and just overall negativity...just blah. I'm taking TN
Click to expand...

Good points. But I disagree with some things. Our OL hasnt been just bad, its been atrocious. From what we have heard from Pruitt, he is still shuffling guys around trying to find the best 5 guys. Recently he spoke of moving Kingston Harris to OL. This unti has not had much playing time together. Then factor in our OL depth problems and that is not good. While I agree that JG is much better than FF, thats got a grat chance of being negated because of the poor OL play.

Defensively, UF still has a really good secondary. They have tall, rangy DBs who know how to cover. They will be able to single cover any of our WRs. UF will likely get Reese and Jefferson back which means they will have speed at LB and a good pass rush. Again, our OL has struggled against WVU, ETSU and even UTEP. And neither of those teams have anywhere near a player comparable to Reese or Jefferson.

Our run game is good. But again, we are talking about a fast SEC defense. Not UTEP. I get the feeling our run game is going to come back down to earth. I highly doubt they will respect our passing game and therefore will stack the box. In the end, I think UF has better depth and we just dont have the team to beat them. I sure hope I am wrong.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jaws
#86
#86
It goes back to consistency. We don't have it anywhere on the field. OL can't block and DL cant penetrate and seal gaps. Despite Floridas shortcomings this season, Dan Mullen has proven he can do a lot with very little. Now he has a lot with a lot.
 
#88
#88
vavolfan6 said:
I think everyone understands that. Yet, there has to be enough people buying Florida as a 4.5 favorite as not drive the spread any closer. The fact that there are enough people buying that side and not Tennessee, is baffling to me. The general consensus set by the market, giving Florida a 4.5 point advantage in Neyland, says that they have the better team. I say this because it is widely accepted that there is about a 3.0 cushion in favor of the home team that calculates its way into the spread.
Click to expand...
Losing 12 of the last 13 with the last four loses coming when we arguably had the better team. Furthermore, those loses have happened in ways that defy the odds. Granted this a new year and there are new coaches, but history like this creates its own momentum with betting lines and the public, IMHO.
 
#89
#89
vavolfan6 said:
I beg to differ. It counts for something, which while may not make a difference in us playing a Georgia or Alabama, it certainly can help us in a game this close. The crowd should be amped up an extra notch. Their presence, from individual players, has already been felt in Knoxville as many of them are making various cameo appearances across the city, bringing extra hype and attention into the game. They will be around all day tomorrow. I'm sure some will speak to the players..and I would imagine there will be promos during the game about them which will only amp up the fans....In the end it may be miniscule in the grand scheme of things, but all we do is need things to go in the right direction and this crowd will have an effect, no doubt.
Click to expand...
Being that this is a night game at Neyland against Florida, imo it's not going to make a significant difference in the noise level during the actual game and the majority of the players probably don't even know who they are as most of the players were not even born yet in 1998. I think Pruitt would probably consider it just noise, though it would be impolitic for him to say so. Anyway, agree to disagree, ordinarily I probably wouldn't have commented, yesterday was the end of a LONG day, so I am sorry if I came down too hard on what was a fairly minor point. GBO! Beat them lizards.
 
Last edited:
#91
#91
vavolfan6 said:
I've already answered that. I think we have the better overall team. We have executed better so far. We have better talent at the skilled positions. JG>Franks...and its not close. I like our running backs much better. Chandler can break one big.

While Offensive Line hasn't been very bright, I trust are coaching staff to strategize around this deficiency, unlike previous staffs. Pruitt is honest and understands the situation. The coaching staff can do alot of different things to cover up this weakness. Additional blockers, quick and short yardage passing plays, screens, heavier commitment to the run, power running formations, play action, bootleg passing, etc....The key is we can't let JG be a sitting duck.

But even then, I don't see Franks outplaying JG in Neyland. All we have to do is to have JG be the better QB tomorrow at home, protect the football, and have our running backs play complimentary football.

Defense has been consistent and solid. WV was a rough game on the stat sheet, but it was our first game with a new coach playing against an experience offense with a Heisman candidate QB. Many times we were in the right position to make a play, but either a step away or a great athletic play by the WV receiver.

Though lacking at pass rush, the crowd's energy could add some extra adrenaline and is always a plus for the defense. Additionally, Florida doesn't feel very confident in the O-Line either as a unit. Lastly, Franks isn't a 50% percentage passer and pressure or not he misses wide open guys. While our lack of pass rush will be punished in other SEC matchups this year, I don't think it will hurt us as much. Plus, I trust Pruitt to compensate.

All in All, I see us as the better overall team. The only way I actually see Florida gaining an advantage and beating us if they catch a break in special teams where they have made some splash plays so far this year. Otherwise, I haven't heard any arguments for why THIS year's Florida's team will beat THIS year's TN team. All I keep hearing is how we will lose the game, not how Florida will beat us. Everyone is pointing to past performances, the "Florida curses', and just overall negativity...just blah. I'm taking TN
Click to expand...
Vavolfan6 - I like your passion and hope you are absolutely right. I wish the players had your passion. The reality IMO is that we are a pitiful team playing a team that is slightly less pitiful than the vols. The players are rebelling against a coach who is trying to right the ship the old fashion way. I think he will but we the fans will have to endure some very ugly times. Today IMO will be one of the man6 ugly times this year. I will have the suicide hotline number for you after the game. I enjoyed reading your post.
 
#93
#93
Historical precedence plays into lines and how people bet. For some reason we just don't play well versus Florida...most years. It has caused me great pain and anger. That's why when we beat em 2 years ago....I was all on the Butch train. But its hard for people to imagine us beating them in real life. We seem cursed with them. And people bet accordingly. If we were ranked 3rd in the country now...there'd still be MANY picking Florida.
 
#95
#95
njvols said:
Being emotionally invested in Vol football is draining. Besides a few times in 2015 and 2016...tired of trying to rationalize ways we're going to win before a game, only to prove that I had orange colored delusions of grandeur after the game. But, I'll keep at it...Go Vols...we've got this
Click to expand...
I divested emotionally last year. First time in 30 years I have not actually cared/been excited about football season. Sad.
 
#96
#96
Because unfortunately the past is the best predictor of the future and this is the impression our recent past has created. We have to lie in the bed we have made until we prove we are ready to wake up.
 
#98
#98
LOL at OP defending his position in this thread. It is what it is. Not a good team. Vegas has a lot of money for a reason. They base it on facts, not emotion or loyalty.
 
#99
#99
tnburban said:
LOL at OP defending his position in this thread. It is what it is. Not a good team. Vegas has a lot of money for a reason. They base it on facts, not emotion or loyalty.
Click to expand...

Yep, I was terribly wrong about this game. There's no doubt about it, but I'm not going to hide behind my predictions. I was completely off! Looks like this team has further to go than I would like to admit. Our O-Line couldn't get up for our biggest rivals and put us behind before the game even started. On the other side, I completely over-rated the defense. There were a few drives where players didn't even attempt to slow Florida down..It was an abysmal performance. I suppose I wishfully thought more highly of this team than they have shown on the field. But reality hit me tonight. Nonetheless, I am still going to cheer on this team and stand by them in their development.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top