azvol03
Senior Member
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2007
- Messages
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I haven’t posted in a couple of years. In fact, just logged on to Volnation for reaction to last night’s win over the Bluejays. This thread on betting odds caught my attention. I’ve used an online sports-book for over 20 years and while I’m surely no expert, I do have experience. A couple of years ago I posted a brief explanation of how point spreads and money lines are arrived at. Vegas does NOT FAVOR any team—they want ONE THING: equal amounts of money to be bet on each team. I’m going to repost my original answer to a question about why Vegas “favored” a team over the Vols. Folks who do bet know this already but it’s for those new to betting or who simply do not bet but want to understand point spread, money line and over/under. Here’s the repost:
“As several have said, “Vegas” doesn’t ‘favor’ any team in any sport. The point margin is simply a function getting equal amounts of money bet on both teams so that losers “pay” the winners…and the “house” makes 10% on the winners bet. The “line” moves +/- points when too much $$ is being bet on a particular team, therefore, making betting on the opposing team more enticing. The line is just arithmetic—equal amounts of money being bet on each team to cover the spread. Often times late (sometimes called ’smart’) money comes in just before a game begins. This can cause a line to move 1/2 point (or more) to try to return to a balanced book. Vegas or sports books SET lines, INITIALLY based on computer models, algorithms, etc—-bettors have the final say on the point spread. It‘s their money that talks. It’s not magical or favoritism….it’s math and money and making sure the wagers placed on each team are nearly equal.”
“As several have said, “Vegas” doesn’t ‘favor’ any team in any sport. The point margin is simply a function getting equal amounts of money bet on both teams so that losers “pay” the winners…and the “house” makes 10% on the winners bet. The “line” moves +/- points when too much $$ is being bet on a particular team, therefore, making betting on the opposing team more enticing. The line is just arithmetic—equal amounts of money being bet on each team to cover the spread. Often times late (sometimes called ’smart’) money comes in just before a game begins. This can cause a line to move 1/2 point (or more) to try to return to a balanced book. Vegas or sports books SET lines, INITIALLY based on computer models, algorithms, etc—-bettors have the final say on the point spread. It‘s their money that talks. It’s not magical or favoritism….it’s math and money and making sure the wagers placed on each team are nearly equal.”
